Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

[tramadoc]

Sticking with the jeopardy theme.
My answer is threeve  
 And I will wager $TEXAS 

Sorry. French Stewart.

[FallsLake]

Boring weather.....The only interesting thing is the question of how far south the back door cold gets tomorrow. As RAH states, there's a huge bust potential for highs (cool or warm).

Low Confidence in Friday`s forecast across central and northern
Piedmont and Coastal Plain.

Challenging forecast give the model discrepancy in the location of
the back-door cold front Friday morning, with the NAM indicating a
brief reprieve from the anomalous warmth, at least across the
northern half of the forecast area, via a shallow in-situ wedge
north of the boundary. Meanwhile, the GFS and EC stall the front
briefly along the VA-NC border, keeping all of central NC in the
warm sector. Huge bust potential wrt forecast highs Friday. If the
NAM is correct, northern areas will struggle to get out of the 50s
with some patchy drizzle possible through the first half of the day.
Meanwhile, areas south of the front will once again warm into the
mid to upper 70s. Am not ready to go quite that cool across the
northern Piedmont, but have certainly trended towards the cooler
guidance. Conversely if the GFS and EC verify, all of central NC
will see another day of near record warmth with mid 70s to lower 80s
everywhere.

Lows Friday night ranging from mid 50s north to lower 60s south.

 

 

[Snow dog]

Just saw where Wolf Laurel Ski Resort in Mars Hill has closed for the season, and Beech Mountain to close Saturday.  I look for Sugar to follow suite as well.  Unfortunate for those businesses, and will be even more tragic when we see mid 20s sometime in March., as the apple and peach trees are blooming, I would assume..

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

2 hours ago, Snow dog said:

Just saw where Wolf Laurel Ski Resort in Mars Hill has closed for the season, and Beech Mountain to close Saturday.  I look for Sugar to follow suite as well.  Unfortunate for those businesses, and will be even more tragic when we see mid 20s sometime in March., as the apple and peach trees are blooming, I would assume..

So if it turns cold and snowy in March they won’t open back up? Just asking. 

[FallsLake]

12z GFS and CMC go to a cold pattern after day 7. At least killer freezes coming up for many across the SE.  

[Snow dog]

I guess they could, however if they let their staff go for the season, and start the process of ‘closing up’ things, they might not.  My guess is that Wolf would NOT open regardless, with Beech more likely to consider re-opening.  Just a guess though..

[FlatLander48]

1 hour ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

So if it turns cold and snowy in March they won’t open back up? Just asking. 

It's gonna take a perfect pattern for them to reopen after they close. the time and effort for them to get slopes ready is gonna need more than a 2 week window.

[FallsLake]

Still not sure how far south the back door "cool" front will get:

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM Thursday...

Principle forecast challenge remains how far into n-cntl NC the cold
front moves, then to what degree it retreats nwd during the
afternoon and evening hours. Forecast confidence is relatively high
for the srn half of cntl NC, with persistence lifting and scattering
of morning low cloudiness and fog, with with temperatures again in
the upr 70s to around 80 degrees. Forecast confidence is similarly
high that nrn locations from near Roxboro to Henderson to Lake
Gaston and Roanoke Rapids Kerr will remain cool, in the 60s, with
some upr 50s possible, amidst CAD and continued post-frontal low
cloudiness, and a chance of light rain and drizzle in the morning.
The greatest uncertainty and 10-15 degree bust potential will exist
roughly along and just north of Highway 64, including the major
metro areas along I-40. There will be a sharp gradient in
temperatures in this corridor separating the two regimes noted
above. The front will remain quasi-stationary and become
increasingly diffuse Friday afternoon and evening, with an otherwise
persistence forecast of continued mild conditions, with yet another
round of late night low cloudiness and areas of fog owing to the
persist unseasonably humid conditions in place.

 

[downeastnc]

11 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Still not sure how far south the back door "cool" front will get:

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM Thursday...

Principle forecast challenge remains how far into n-cntl NC the cold
front moves, then to what degree it retreats nwd during the
afternoon and evening hours. Forecast confidence is relatively high
for the srn half of cntl NC, with persistence lifting and scattering
of morning low cloudiness and fog, with with temperatures again in
the upr 70s to around 80 degrees. Forecast confidence is similarly
high that nrn locations from near Roxboro to Henderson to Lake
Gaston and Roanoke Rapids Kerr will remain cool, in the 60s, with
some upr 50s possible, amidst CAD and continued post-frontal low
cloudiness, and a chance of light rain and drizzle in the morning.
The greatest uncertainty and 10-15 degree bust potential will exist
roughly along and just north of Highway 64, including the major
metro areas along I-40. There will be a sharp gradient in
temperatures in this corridor separating the two regimes noted
above. The front will remain quasi-stationary and become
increasingly diffuse Friday afternoon and evening, with an otherwise
persistence forecast of continued mild conditions, with yet another
round of late night low cloudiness and areas of fog owing to the
persist unseasonably humid conditions in place.

 

Well at 3am we got 54 and a north wind on a forecast for a low of 62 so the front has made it at least as far south as Hwy 264......temps in the mid 40's up north...still calling for 75 tomorrow as the front goes back north....

[FallsLake]

3 hours ago, downeastnc said:

Well at 3am we got 54 and a north wind on a forecast for a low of 62 so the front has made it at least as far south as Hwy 264......temps in the mid 40's up north...still calling for 75 tomorrow as the front goes back north....

Yep, the front has passed many of us in north NC. I'm at 51 now. This is still sad; whereas we're in February and talking about 50s as cool. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

backdoor fronts this far south on a 588 ridge in February 

[Tacoma]

Guys if something doesn't start showing up soon on at least the fantasy maps we can kiss this season good-bye, this is unbelievable .  Lived here my whole life and never seen anything like this, this warm for this long in February.

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

8 minutes ago, Tacoma said:

Guys if something doesn't start showing up soon on at least the fantasy maps we can kiss this season good-bye, this is unbelievable .  Lived here my whole life and never seen anything like this, this warm for this long in February.

February of 93 was warm too 

[Tornadocane]

3 hours ago, Tacoma said:

Guys if something doesn't start showing up soon on at least the fantasy maps we can kiss this season good-bye, this is unbelievable .  Lived here my whole life and never seen anything like this, this warm for this long in February.

There's hope on the models.

[jpbart]

Since the thread been a bit slow I thought I would toss out a question for the mid range weather.

i was reading in the Washington Post about an epic much colder than normal extended outbreak of freezing weather.  The beast from the east as they say.  Also that it is causing much warmer temps in the Arctic as the really cold air pours into Eastern Europe. 

Would this effect our chances for our annual March “killing frost” cold snap?   I.e. would our cold snap be less sever if the artic dumps its cold air over Europe first or does it just quickly reload again this close to spring?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/02/23/europe-braces-for-beast-from-the-east-cold-snap-potentially-the-most-severe-in-5-years/?utm_term=.15dbd55d4e30

 

[FallsLake]

After day 8 things do look interesting for a possible winter event. The big problem is the time of year. We're getting past our favorable time period for winter storms and it would take a near perfect setup for folks outside the mountains. It can happen, and this upcoming pattern could produce.

If something was to develop, I would say this is now the time to wish for overnight snow (...remember our survey). 

[Moonhowl]

Looks like March is going to be the winter month it typically is in the mountains and bring an end to this false spring.  Looking for the March high winds and cold with NWFS; we will see if something bigger shows up.

[FallsLake]

JB is hyping the upcoming pattern (take it as you will).

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

 

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

30 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

JB is hyping the upcoming pattern (take it as you will).

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

 

He’s been talking about this for a couple weeks.

MJO going into phase 1 and 2. -NAO and -AO too. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna_index_mrf.shtml

PNA trying to go+ to. This could get interesting. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Since 2000, everytime we have had a strong -NAO block March 1-7, -NAO is through the rest of the month on a strong magnitude of at least +150dm at 500mb over Greenland for the March 8-31 period. 5/5

[FallsLake]

12z GFS has a fantasy snow at day 9/10. I wouldn't get too excite about the look; its a perfect scenario where rates overcome producing heavy wet snow. I would actually like to see a setup where even more cold is established and a storm popping in the gulf. **at this range   

Honestly, I think our main concern is the possible/probable killing freezes.

[PackGrad05]

The ground temperatures have to be extremely warm right now.  For any accumulation chances, we would need at least a week of cold temperatures prior to a storm.

[LithiaWx]

17 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

The ground temperatures have to be extremely warm right now.  For any accumulation chances, we would need at least a week of cold temperatures prior to a storm.

Blizzard of 93 was preceded by very warm weather and the rest is history. 

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

20 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Blizzard of 93 was preceded by very warm weather and the rest is history. 

What a storm that was. Definitely one that went against all odds. Sun angle ground temp. All the thing we hear as to why a storm can’t happen this time of year. I have to admit I was a doughter too when I heard the forecast. 

[lookingnorth]

4 hours ago, PackGrad05 said:

The ground temperatures have to be extremely warm right now.  For any accumulation chances, we would need at least a week of cold temperatures prior to a storm.

I got measurable sleet 30 hours after 75-degree temperatures this week in Oklahoma. To be fair, we didn't have several days of 70s in a row, but still, it was in the 40s-60s most of the previous several days.

[PackGrad05]

3 hours ago, lookingnorth said:

I got measurable sleet 30 hours after 75-degree temperatures this week in Oklahoma. To be fair, we didn't have several days of 70s in a row, but still, it was in the 40s-60s most of the previous several days.

Yeah.  We have had almost 2 weeks of 60-80 degree days here...  It really feels like April/May.  Flowers/tree are budding/blossoming.  Pollen everywhere.

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

52 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Yeah.  We have had almost 2 weeks of 60-80 degree days here...  It really feels like April/May.  Flowers/tree are budding/blossoming.  Pollen everywhere.

Noticed my Bradford's already have buds. I've had them 18 years now. Have trimmed them Bach a couple years ago. 

On a side note ESPN's 30 for 30 they had one on the 83 Houston team that lost to State. Talk about a bunch of whiner. What if's.

As I said before i'm always a Tarheel's fan but that 83 team was very special. No big superstars ,like Houston, but played with a lot of heart.

[CaryWx]

some potential here boys with 5-6th and I just dropped per-emergent today   Go figure

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Storm potential March 6-8.. starting to look like -PNA may not be as modeled 

[tramadoc]

Storm potential March 6-8.. starting to look like -PNA may not be as modeled 

10 or11 days away? Come on man. You're better than that.