frazdaddy Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, FallsLake said: In my opinion, the winter has been ok to this point. I would give it a C (average). If we can get one more widespread SE storm it could become a good winter (B). I would actually love to see a Miller B storm with a classic CAD setup. This would produce a wide range of precip types. I wouldn't mind seeing a snow, to sleet, to freezing rain, and then back to snow type storm. But all I can do is dream about it right now... I can't complain. Best winter I've had in 7 years, Chatham or Wake. Still holding hope that last week in Feb holds a surprise. If not it's time for those springtime thunder storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Since this is the long term thread... I can’t wait for this coming winter with low solar activity #revengeoftheNino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 50 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Since this is the long term thread... I can’t wait for this coming winter with low solar activity #revengeoftheNino https://nextgrandminimum.wordpress.com/ Interesting reading on the subject. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reedski Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 We didn't even get any winter weather in CAE and I'm ready to turn the page to Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpbart Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 29 minutes ago, Reedski said: We didn't even get any winter weather in CAE and I'm ready to turn the page to Spring. I am with you on this one brother. Let's get spring going and my banana plants growing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 If the GFS is to be believed, Upstate SC goes above 60 degrees at hr 114 and doesn't go back below 60 until 216....Jeebus..talk about a torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 46 minutes ago, WarmNose said: If the GFS is to be believed, Upstate SC goes above 60 degrees at hr 114 and doesn't go back below 60 until 216....Jeebus..talk about a torch Look on the bright side, you'll save on the heat bill. But pray you wont need AC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 I'm showing rain on my mobile weather app from Sat straight thru Thurs next week. Are we going to have a system stall or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 24 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Look on the bright side, you'll save on the heat bill. But pray you wont need AC. Should be pleasant with open windows tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Looking bad for us right now through next week, hope the week after and beyond have some fun and games. I hate it when its this quiet in here, means there is nothing on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 hour ago, CaryWx said: I'm showing rain on my mobile weather app from Sat straight thru Thurs next week. Are we going to have a system stall or something? Looks like a freight train of rain out of the gulf, one batch after another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 6 hours ago, frazdaddy said: https://nextgrandminimum.wordpress.com/ Interesting reading on the subject. At least my kid(s) will have good winters in the long long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 So the split PV is no longer going west to east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 2 hours ago, JQPublic said: So the split PV is no longer going west to east? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmf.shtml MJO going into phase 8 https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/ SOI index dropping low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 6 hours ago, WarmNose said: If the GFS is to be believed, Upstate SC goes above 60 degrees at hr 114 and doesn't go back below 60 until 216....Jeebus..talk about a torch Yeah, pretty crappy. Good news is it's the warmest model of the suite. Bad news is it's not by much. TWC, which basically uses the GFS run for automated forecast doesn't show GSP below freezing for next 15 days. Hopefully GFS is out to lunch as usual, would be a shame to waste the heart of Feb on spring, but it seems to happen more years than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 11 hours ago, FallsLake said: In my opinion, the winter has been ok to this point. I would give it a C (average). If we can get one more widespread SE storm it could become a good winter (B). Depending on where people are I would expect to see wildly different grades for this winter. I agree, Def a "C" for me. No real lengthy torches, one good cold spell and general coolness otherwise, 2 small snow events, but not even equal to my seasonal average. If we get no more winter from here out I'll probably go with a C - for MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 The era of really obvious long term model bias continues... They want to build a -AO I think because of MJO and Stratospheric warming, but it's not mathematical progression, and something intuitively else. My guess is it's different and this could change the outlook Day 7+ more than usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 12 hours ago, JoshM said: Looks like a freight train of rain out of the gulf, one batch after another. Below average temps and snow in December and January followed by El Nino like rain in February, remarkable for a warm and dry winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Looking at the latest LR models and it's pretty disappointing. Again just going out to day 10. The euro does have a better pattern setup than the GFS; there's more of southward push of cold air (..still not great) and some signs of more cold air afterwards. I'll be interested to see the 12z. **GFS past day 10 (which we all agree is garbage), would signal spring is here. 0z Euro 850 temps at day 10: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 The 0z GFS is similar at 240, as well as the 6z. Thereafter, the 0z sends most of the cold over to Russia. Winter is over if that happens. The 6z doesn't do that, but by 384, it is moving in that direction. Could be wrong, but it has been laser-locked on that solution for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: The 0z GFS is similar at 240, as well as the 6z. Thereafter, the 0z sends most of the cold over to Russia. Winter is over if that happens. The 6z doesn't do that, but by 384, it is moving in that direction. Could be wrong, but it has been laser-locked on that solution for days. You"re right it has been locked into that for days. Don't shoot the messenger, but a few mets have been saying that the models are really gonna have a hard time with the propagation of the PV downward, which IMO means they have no idea what's gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Thought that people may wanna see this before it disappears tommorow lol: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 I'm a little confused about the source of the below indices chart: ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4indices.png It's slightly different than this site (which I think are both supposed to be GEFS, maybe different times): http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml This first would indicate that the NAO could go negative in the long range. I also like that the EPO will stay negative. You would think if the PNA is positive, AO is negative, NAO is negative, and EPO is negative; a good pattern would emerge in the coming model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 23 minutes ago, Southern Track said: Thought that people may wanna see this before it disappears tommorow lol: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/ I didn't see your post until after I posted. But yeah, hopefully we see some model changes soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 I am floored that a la nina winter might end early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 22 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: I am floored that a la nina winter might end early. What makes it aggravating is that it might end early despite so many positive indicators. Someone will eventually be able to point out the fly in the ointment about why the pattern isn't a little closer to producing for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Have hope! Models are weird right now to build a SE ridge, there will probably be more low level cold air than expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 MJO GFS Ensemble looks like its going to do a "loop de loop" in phase 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 hour ago, shahroz98 said: MJO GFS Ensemble looks like its going to do a "loop de loop" in phase 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml What about this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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