frazdaddy Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 2 hours ago, jburns said: This is Phil Conners signing off from Punxsutawney PA. That thar`s funny don't care who ya are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 51 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: Of course, and no cold in sight. This area is absolutely maddening for a winter weather lover!!! I'm still hopeful we can work something out last week of Feb, first week of Mar. Atleast it's starting to look like a Niña! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 This is the GFS at 168. Hope it's not too far in the LR to get another lecturing. Anyway, Packbacker would love this look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 1 hour ago, WarmNose said: This is the GFS at 168. Hope it's not too far in the LR to get another lecturing. Anyway, Packbacker would love this look Got to hit 80s a day or two before you get snow in Feb/March down here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 That has severe weather written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Keep an eye on the 12-14th timeframe! Got winter storm potential written all over it! That is all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 8 hours ago, Cold Rain said: The GFS lr would be hard pressed to look a lot worse for cold and snow in the east. MJO phase 8 sucks. That's the thing though, I don't think its going to make it to phase 8. It will do loop-de-loops in phase 7 until spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 44 minutes ago, cbmclean said: That's the thing though, I don't think its going to make it to phase 8. It will do loop-de-loops in phase 7 until spring. Probably, knowing our luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 12 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Probably, knowing our luck. Next years supposed to be a Nino, I'm all in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 18 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Next years supposed to be a Nino, I'm all in! Must have seen JB say that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 48 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Next years supposed to be a Nino, I'm all in! Aren't weak Nino's statistically good for us (or at least less bad). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Aren't weak Nino's statistically good for us (or at least less bad). Yes. Active southern stream. Better than relying on a clipper closing off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Wow, this thread got quiet...... (crickets). Not to worry it will get active shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Wow, this thread got quiet...... (crickets). Not to worry it will get active shortly. Yeah lots of rain to chase this week! Counting yesterday, and the upcoming Wed and this Weekends event, I could be closing in on 6"+ of much needed Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Rain is coming. Never heard local met that stated 100% chance of rain 48 hours out. . Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Yep wish it would snow as often or easy as it rains. Hope there is another snowstorm or two to chase/follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, Tacoma said: Yep wish it would snow as often or easy as it rains. Hope there is another snowstorm or two to chase/follow. The mountains probably have a decent chance at something else before the winter's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 It's only Feb 5th.... There will be another event to track you can count on it. Yesterday's event was just enough to get me back in the winter mood. Stayed below freezing for the entire event. The LR indices look good this morning for the second half of Feb. Look for those fantasy storms to start showing back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Sudden Stratwarm means wild ride into March , Winter has a long way to go Analog packages from FALL still looking pretty good SOI crash starting now ( BTW likely the first hit to the body of the NINA, modoki nino should develop fall/winter) - JB's twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 19 hours ago, WarmNose said: This is the GFS at 168. Hope it's not too far in the LR to get another lecturing. Anyway, Packbacker would love this look With looks like this, winter would be over! Here's anothe fab Feb and were chasing unicorn SSW again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Just looking at the GFS and euro out to day 10, and they don't show much hope. Indices don't look as good either. Not giving up hope, but we'll need the pattern to at least be in the process of switching to a favorable configuration by mid month to give us hope for a late season widespread storm threat. There have been significant winter storms through the month of March, but climo would indicate that most folks outside of mountain areas have until around March 5th. We need to start seeing hints at a pattern change very soon (maybe the strat warming...). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 44 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: With looks like this, winter would be over! Here's anothe fab Feb and were chasing unicorn SSW again! Did you get any ice with this last storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Did you get any ice with this last storm? Not one icicle IMBY! It was sad but it must have poured at some point! Lots of bigger than normal puddles and runoff! Should have put a smile on Shetleys face! I think I saw him post that he got a glaze on tree tops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 1 hour ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: It's only Feb 5th.... There will be another event to track you can count on it. Yesterday's event was just enough to get me back in the winter mood. Stayed below freezing for the entire event. The LR indices look good this morning for the second half of Feb. Look for those fantasy storms to start showing back up. Fallslake, this seems to conflict with your statement? Not trying to stir the pot, just wondering what different things y'all are seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Fallslake, this seems to conflict with your statement? Not trying to stir the pot, just wondering what different things y'all are seeing? I'm only looking out to 10 days on LR models. Everything past that is garbage. The indices this morning look ok but not as good as the past days. Just stating my opinion that we need to see movement towards a favorable pattern by day 10. Right now I'm not seeing it. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 26 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Not one icicle IMBY! It was sad but it must have poured at some point! Lots of bigger than normal puddles and runoff! Should have put a smile on Shetleys face! I think I saw him post that he got a glaze on tree tops Mack I woke up at sunrise and there was a light glaze on trees and bushes, which was quickly washed away by 32.5 degree rain by 9:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 2 hours ago, AsheCounty48 said: Sudden Stratwarm means wild ride into March , Winter has a long way to go Analog packages from FALL still looking pretty good SOI crash starting now ( BTW likely the first hit to the body of the NINA, modoki nino should develop fall/winter) - JB's twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 IMO outside of the mountains, winter is done in the SE. The overall pattern the next 10 days is typical Nina for February with cutter after cutter and the cold confined in Canada. Also, ensembles agree that the cold will head back to Siberia and stay through through the end of the run. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a cool March like in recent years but snow chances are pretty much done based on what models indicate happening the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Awesome pattern setting up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Awesome pattern setting up! Mid Atlantic should be licking their chops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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