SteveVa Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 53 minutes ago, burrel2 said: lol, I'm just joking of course. But it does look bleak for the next 2 weeks. But there's always March 1960! Yup, my previous optimism hasn't paid off, the ridge axis set up too far west for anything meaningful. Guess I was wrong lol. Cranky has been mentioning Feb 18-22 as a possible window for a coastal, I'm assuming the reasoning behind that is that the stormy pattern will be departing then. And the BSR supports. Some changes are happening in the strat too as I see a lot of knowledgeable mets think that the PV split is possible or even likely. The stratosphere will save us, let's get a March 2-3, 1980 redux! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 1 hour ago, burrel2 said: lol, I'm just joking of course. But it does look bleak for the next 2 weeks. But there's always March 1960! A thousand year event and two-thirds of this forum think we are overdue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 1 minute ago, jburns said: A thousand year event and two-thirds of this forum think we are overdue. I've turned off the lights, shut my eyes and just can't see March 1960. I would make it happen if I could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 31 minutes ago, jburns said: A thousand year event and two-thirds of this forum think we are overdue. Do snow records go back that far? Which data base do you use? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 43 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Do snow records go back that far? Which data base do you use? TIA best I could find was this: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis/19600302-19600305-8.77.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 22 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: best I could find was this: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis/19600302-19600305-8.77.jpg https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter/database Here is data for each month going back to 1959. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 1 hour ago, jburns said: A thousand year event and two-thirds of this forum think we are overdue. Don't have easy access to historical records right now. What exactly happened in March 1960? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Don't have easy access to historical records right now. What exactly happened in March 1960? Nevermind. The link at the previous post answered my question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Don't have easy access to historical records right now. What exactly happened in March 1960? Snow on the ground and very cold for the entire month in the upstate of SC, 3 separate big events each spaced about a week apart. My great grandmother told me they had to walk through snow to get to Easter service?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 You know there's nothing on the horizon when the mid to long range discussion drops to three or four posts every 8-10 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 22 minutes ago, tramadoc said: You know there's nothing on the horizon when the mid to long range discussion drops to three or four posts every 8-10 hours. Yeah, nobody wants to track warmth! Which is what models are showing through and past mid month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 12z gfs had some snow and zr late next weekend for the triad TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 No one will give a crap until the model snow maps are loaded with snow, but reading thru the tea leaves, Anthony M (HM) seems to like the idea of some heavy blocking setting up in the last third of Feb due to a big stratospheric PV split, favorable MJO, and poleward propagating -AAM. You know, all the unicorn factors. Anyway, get ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 15 minutes ago, griteater said: No one will give a crap until the model snow maps are loaded with snow, but reading thru the tea leaves, Anthony M (HM) seems to like the idea of some heavy blocking setting up in the last third of Feb due to a big stratospheric PV split, favorable MJO, and poleward propagating -AAM. You know, all the unicorn factors. Anyway, get ready I'm diehard Carolina. Always have been always will be. I can and have pulled for state but never Duke. I always enjoy reading your perspective on the weather. You know what your talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 39 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: I'm diehard Carolina. Always have been always will be. I can and have pulled for state but never Duke. I always enjoy reading your perspective on the weather. You know what your talking about. I appreciate that, thanks. I try to learn every day/year. Grew up a Carolina fan. Jordan and Worthy playing Sampson and Wilson in Charlottesville, doesn't get any better...but I went to State and have converted. Hopefully we can see one more good storm before it's over. Normally, strat warnings don't lead to cold weather in the east during La Ninas, but HM makes some points that go against that this year (favorable MJO and poleward propagating -AAM; the former would aid in western ridging; the latter would aid in slowing the jet in the polar regions for potential blocking). We can only hope and dream at this point though, ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 I appreciate that, thanks. I try to learn every day/year. Grew up a Carolina fan. Jordan and Worthy playing Sampson and Wilson in Charlottesville, doesn't get any better...but I went to State and have converted. Hopefully we can see one more good storm before it's over. Normally, strat warnings don't lead to cold weather in the east during La Ninas, but HM makes some points that go against that this year (favorable MJO and poleward propagating -AAM; the former would aid in western ridging; the latter would aid in slowing the jet in the polar regions for potential blocking). We can only hope and dream at this point though, haIs HM Henry Margusity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 13 minutes ago, tramadoc said: 1 hour ago, griteater said: I appreciate that, thanks. I try to learn every day/year. Grew up a Carolina fan. Jordan and Worthy playing Sampson and Wilson in Charlottesville, doesn't get any better...but I went to State and have converted. Hopefully we can see one more good storm before it's over. Normally, strat warnings don't lead to cold weather in the east during La Ninas, but HM makes some points that go against that this year (favorable MJO and poleward propagating -AAM; the former would aid in western ridging; the latter would aid in slowing the jet in the polar regions for potential blocking). We can only hope and dream at this point though, ha Is HM Henry Margusity? Anthony Masiello on Twitter. He used to post on AmWx as "HM". He's top notch with met knowledge and forecast ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Anthony Masiello on Twitter. He used to post on AmWx as "HM". He's top notch with met knowledge and forecast ideas. I do follow him on Twitter. Him and Michael Ventrice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Keep an eye on Valentine's Day storm! Looking good! PV will be split by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 6 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Keep an eye on Valentine's Day storm! Looking good! PV will be split by then What am I missing, do not really see any chances over the, well, for the rest of the season. Good that we are getting the rain though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Right now, the pattern looks horrid for snow for most of us for the next two weeks. Beyond that, who knows. But climo is waiting just beyond the horizon, though...just waiting to crush your very last snowy hope and drag you down into the depths of a warm and snowless spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Right now, the pattern looks horrid for snow for most of us for the next two weeks. Beyond that, who knows. But climo is waiting just beyond the horizon, though...just waiting to crush your very last snowy hope and drag you down into the depths of a warm and snowless spring. I haven't seen a warm spring in a few years. I'll welcome it if it comes. La nina springs are usually cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 14 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: I haven't seen a warm spring in a few years. I'll welcome it if it comes. La nina springs are usually cold When are you coming to Raleigh? It’ll be plenty warm here. You can help me with some landscaping projects! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 2 hours ago, Cold Rain said: When are you coming to Raleigh? It’ll be plenty warm here. You can help me with some landscaping projects! get ready for the pollen storms! I expect multiple "yellow outs" this year, perhaps even 200m:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 2 hours ago, Cold Rain said: Right now, the pattern looks horrid for snow for most of us for the next two weeks. Beyond that, who knows. But climo is waiting just beyond the horizon, though...just waiting to crush your very last snowy hope and drag you down into the depths of a warm and snowless spring. This is Phil Conners signing off from Punxsutawney PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Pretty much on schedule to me,MJO showing the stall/loop de loop like I thought in p7.Did it 3 prior times counting 09-10 and last December.Looks like it's gong to take 10 days until it finally gets a kick in the pants to move though so we'll see. The 09-10 produced snow here Mar 2nd but realistically we have to about Mar 10th to get a hit.Not impossible after that but it gets difficult. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 One thing looks certain.. the drought conditions many piedmont areas have been experiencing are about to be gone. Within the next 7 to 8 days 2 to 5 inches of rain looks likely for much of the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: One thing looks certain.. the drought conditions many piedmont areas have been experiencing are about to be gone. Within the next 7 to 8 days 2 to 5 inches of rain looks likely for much of the SE CMC agrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: One thing looks certain.. the drought conditions many piedmont areas have been experiencing are about to be gone. Within the next 7 to 8 days 2 to 5 inches of rain looks likely for much of the SE Of course, and no cold in sight. This area is absolutely maddening for a winter weather lover!!! I'm still hopeful we can work something out last week of Feb, first week of Mar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 The GFS lr would be hard pressed to look a lot worse for cold and snow in the east. MJO phase 8 sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.