mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Somebody post the latest CMC , when it comes out! It's all we've got for Sunday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: It honestly blows my mind. The difference between here and even exit 23 is noticeable. I got 10 last year and I’m sitting at 7 so far this year. I can’t remember the official totals but I think I’m at least 10” ahead of KCLT. Come on man, now you're just rubbing it in....blows my mind too. Sitting at 4 inches near uncc. Closer you are to Iredell county line, the better you are...its just colder up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 I had high hopes for February, but now I am just hoping that the cold/dry - warm-up and rain will average to normal. It would be nice to sneak an overall below-average winter (even if it's just a smidge below) when predictions were pretty dire going in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Somebody post the latest CMC , when it comes out! It's all we've got for Sunday! lol, That thread died quickly!!! Hang on it want be long....................... Just as soon as we can get the MJO in phase 8 the bottom drops out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: lol, That thread died quickly!!! Hang on it want be long....................... Just as soon as we can get the MJO in phase 8 the bottom drops out! As others have mentioned recently, some forecasts are showing it making a detour around 8 or maybe even reversing itself back to phase 6. Hopefully that doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 11 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: lol, That thread died quickly!!! Hang on it want be long....................... Just as soon as we can get the MJO in phase 8 the bottom drops out! Is JB still thinking the MJO is going into phase 8,1,2,3 for February? He was showing cold maps and snow maps yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, cbmclean said: As others have mentioned recently, some forecasts are showing it making a detour around 8 or maybe even reversing itself back to phase 6. Hopefully that doesn't happen. Yes I've seen that, Phase 7 not bad for February If we can time a storm just right!!! I doubt it goes to phase 6, delayed but not denied..... Famous quote from JB lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: Is JB still thinking the MJO is going into phase 8,1,2,3 for February? He was showing cold maps and snow maps yesterday. Yes, He says MJO slow moving, tonight he said Feb 17 - March 7 Cold? IDK we'll see soon!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 34 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: It honestly blows my mind. The difference between here and even exit 23 is noticeable. I got 10 last year and I’m sitting at 7 so far this year. I can’t remember the official totals but I think I’m at least 10” ahead of KCLT. I'm sure one day someone will figure it out but there is a bubble in the area where brick lives that always gets more snow than 2/3 miles down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 minute ago, BIG FROSTY said: Yes, He says MJO slow moving, tonight he said Feb 17 - March 7 Cold? IDK we'll see soon!! Tomorrow it'll be 25th Feb-March 10th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Tomorrow it'll be 25th Feb-March 10th Wouldn't surprise me!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Tomorrow it'll be 25th Feb-March 10th I guess time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 minute ago, BIG FROSTY said: Yes, He says MJO slow moving, tonight he said Feb 17 - March 7 Cold? IDK we'll see soon!! A link to someone's master's thesis correlating MJO phase with CONUS temps. If I understand correctly, it seems that if you want a significant Eastern US cold snap, you should root for the MJO to be inthe COD. That surprises me. https://www.albany.edu/honorscollege/files/findlay_thesis.docx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Just now, cbmclean said: A link to someone's master's thesis correlating MJO phase with CONUS temps. If I understand correctly, it seems that if you want a significant Eastern US cold snap, you should root for the MJO to be inthe COD. That surprises me. https://www.albany.edu/honorscollege/files/findlay_thesis.docx Interesting, That may be where it's headed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Interesting, That may be where it's headed? It could be. After being really amped it looks to die on the vine and skirt the cold phases along with the COD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 18 minutes ago, Southern Track said: It could be. After being really amped it looks to die on the vine and skirt the cold phases along with the COD I have been trying for a while to find good info about the effect of MJO on CONUS temps. Found a good citation using my student access via the NCSU library (yay library fees) Zhou, S., L’Heureux, M., Weaver, S., Kumar, A., (2011). A composite study of the MJO influence on the surface air temperature and precipitation over the Continental United States. Climate Dynamics, 38, 1459-1471 So this article shows why everyone on this thread likes phases 8 - 1- 2 so much. Interestingly, it again shows that we tend to do better with low amplitude in those phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 I don’t know if this notion has any merit or not, but I always kind of root for the mjo to go into the cod from phase 8-1-2 rather than from the warm phases. I don’t know if it matters once it’s in the cod, but I always assume that if it goes in there from a cold phase, the atmosphere will tend to remain sort of configured in that state longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: I don’t know if this notion has any merit or not, but I always kind of root for the mjo to go into the cod from phase 8-1-2 rather than from the warm phases. I don’t know if it matters once it’s in the cod, but I always assume that if it goes in there from a cold phase, the atmosphere will tend to remain sort of configured in that state longer. I tend to agree. I guess the good situation of the amped oscillation is that it’s been rocketing through phases 4,5, and 6 so it can get to more favorable conditions hopefully by mid February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 6z GFS says apps rubber after apps rubber! No cold in sight. This Friday/Saturday cold shot, is coldest of the whole run ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: 6z GFS says apps rubber after apps rubber! No cold in sight. This Friday/Saturday cold shot, is coldest of the whole run ! and it has been scarily consistent showing nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 MJO in Phase 6 is currently at it's highest level in this phase since records were kept starting in 1979. Long Range does not look good for cold weather folks. I think if we don't see a drastic change on the models in the next five days, you can go ahead and stick a fork in this winter season for areas east of the Appalachians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, tramadoc said: MJO in Phase 6 is currently at it's highest level in this phase since records were kept starting in 1979. Long Range does not look good for cold weather folks. I think if we don't see a drastic change on the models in the next five days, you can go ahead and stick a fork in this winter season for areas east of the Appalachians. Yeah, I think it’s premature to throw in the towel, and we can always get a rogue storm. But if we move from a slightly cool pattern with no storms at the beginning of February to a warm pattern for the middle and end of February, I’ll probably call ballgame, at least for around here. We would probably spend the rest of the month getting rid of the warmth (assuming that’s the way the pattern was trending), and then it’s into March. Marches today are not like Marches of yesteryear when it comes to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 15 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yeah, I think it’s premature to throw in the towel, and we can always get a rogue storm. But if we move from a slightly cool pattern with no storms at the beginning of February to a warm pattern for the middle and end of February, I’ll probably call ballgame, at least for around here. We would probably spend the rest of the month getting rid of the warmth (assuming that’s the way the pattern was trending), and then it’s into March. Marches today are not like Marches of yesteryear when it comes to snow. I don't throw in the towel till April 1st! March 1960 days hello and we are due! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Indices would indicate that the mid part of February onward could be favorable. If so, we should see the LR models start showing colder solutions. PNA - Goes solidly positive in LR (Good) AO - Goes solidly negative in LR (Good) EPO - stays negative but goes to slight negative in LR (OK) NAO http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: Indices would indicate that the mid part of February onward could be favorable. If so, we should see the LR models start showing colder solutions. PNA - Goes solidly positive in LR (Good) AO - Goes solidly negative in LR (Good) EPO - stays negative but goes to slight negative in LR (OK) NAO http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml I hope the middle of the month gets here soon, waiting is the hardest part. If that dam MJO would just keep moving! It may be overated, but it's journey and stalling in 7, isn't giving us much cold after this weekend shot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 29 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Indices would indicate that the mid part of February onward could be favorable. If so, we should see the LR models start showing colder solutions. PNA - Goes solidly positive in LR (Good) AO - Goes solidly negative in LR (Good) EPO - stays negative but goes to slight negative in LR (OK) NAO http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml They looked good 10 days ago for a big cool down first week or two of February and that changed and now we are pushing it out to second half of feb....experience tells me that when we start pushing out the big cold pattern change it's bad sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 minute ago, shaggy said: They looked good 10 days ago for a big cool down first week or two of February and that changed and now we are pushing it out to second half of feb....experience tells me that when we start pushing out the big cold pattern change it's bad sign. Maybe. It had the cold look (and even was close to a -NAO) and the models followed suit (cold look). But then they switched towards a warmer look (PNA and AO more neutral) and the models then went warm in the LR. So, maybe we again start seeing better model solutions. If the pattern actually does switch around mid month, it may change very quickly as long as we can keep cold temps locked to our NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 I'm far from a "long range" forecaster but I enjoy looking at various indices and climate model solutions. I will say the CanSIPS and the CFS Weekly/Monthly runs from last night show a favorable turn to cold mid Feb and beyond. I also read there is a SSW event taking place or getting ready to. (I'll see it to believe it) The indices referenced above also are trending in this direction. I still think a portion of the SE is in store for a winter storm or two before all is said and done. I also think it is USELESS to even analyze ANY global model's solution beyond 168 hrs (1 week)...this goes for warm or cold solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Once again, punt one to two weeks longer. That seems to never change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 37 minutes ago, tramadoc said: Once again, punt one to two weeks longer. That seems to never change. To be fair, everyone has been post 2/7. So we will see if after a week from now how things shake out. This 1st week stuff is just and added bonus, most of the thoughts Ive read from JB,Robert and webber etc where never touting the 1st week of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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