tramadoc Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 It's about to be roof crushing and tree busting snowfall! What are you smoking or drinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 1 hour ago, tramadoc said: 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: It's about to be roof crushing and tree busting snowfall! What are you smoking or drinking? I could be wrong, but I think this is a reference to Robert, aka WXSouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 6 hours ago, Snow haven said: You keep posting that stuff here, that's what the LONG TERM DISCUSSION board is for! Just, a heads up. It isn't a good idea to encourage another member to ignore a moderator. In the event of a confrontation, you could end up as collateral damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 GFS good for WNC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 CMC big hit as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Interesting observation based on the 0z runs from the ICON and GFS for the Sunday/Monday storm. The GFS is amping up a lot quicker than the ICON, which is normally an amp happy model. (just based on this winter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Canadian Clown Map, I40 special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 I'm all in for Monday now. Canadian been beating the drum for a while and icon with its high res right there with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Are we within the time frame and is there enough support to make a thread for Sunday/Monday? If so, someone needs to start it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 for nc, need to see the gfs continue to loose the gl influence the more high pressure we can get up there the better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 3 hours ago, Disco-lemonade said: for nc, need to see the gfs continue to loose the gl influence the more high pressure we can get up there the better The GFS is trending in the right direction. Track of the low is further south on this run. That's due to the pressures being higher in the great lakes as shown above. If this trend continues, it will be a big hit for a lot of folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 6z GFS is close with a couple of events during the next 7 days. Verbatim, it does show some wintery precip for the mountains and foothills, but nothing father east. It's close enough that we need to keep an eye on (hopefully good) trends the next couple of days. As of right now it's looking more favorable for the MA folks (...and again maybe our mountains). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 I might be wrong, but the Sun/Mon threat looks more suited for the Mountains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: I might be wrong, but the Sun/Mon threat looks more suited for the Mountains... Yeah with the marginal cold and the low position, the higher elevations can make this work. Kind of like spring storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Just now, FallsLake said: Yeah with the marginal cold and the low position, the higher elevations can make this work. Kind of like spring storms... Although the Canadian is colder, it had done well this Winter, but kinda hard to Trust it when GFS AND EURO dont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: Yeah with the marginal cold and the low position, the higher elevations can make this work. Kind of like spring storms... And no storms or very cold air on 6z GFS long range!? Here we are a day away from Fab Feb start, and it ain't looking too Fab, anytime soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: And no storms or very cold air on 6z GFS long range!? Here we are a day away from Fab Feb start, and it ain't looking too Fab, anytime soon Which, will probably change at 12z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: And no storms or very cold air on 6z GFS long range!? Here we are a day away from Fab Feb start, and it ain't looking too Fab, anytime soon Gonna be hard to top the Jamming December & January places like Wofford and Clemson SC have had! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 The upcoming pattern for the next 7 days looks pretty awful if you ask me. Trough is too far west not enough high pressure to our NE for a CAD storm with an active storm track= lots of cold rain for the next 7 days.. Mountains could do well yes but foothills and Piedmont areas will be lucky to get much out of this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 I mean. All the talk has been for the past week that the pattern isn't going to get good for everyone outside of the mountains til mid month anyway. And it still looks like that will be the case based on LR modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Although the Canadian is colder, it had done well this Winter, but kinda hard to Trust it when GFS AND EURO dont Even the CMC has surface temps above freezing. At best there'll be sloppy 2" amounts. We need the initial cold air (single digit dew points) on Saturday to hang in longer. It could, we need some type of in-situ CAD to help us out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 16 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Yeah with the marginal cold and the low position, the higher elevations can make this work. Kind of like spring storms... I think anyone in and around WNC will do fine with this storm Sunday and Monday if the low will stay far enough south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 18 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Although the Canadian is colder, it had done well this Winter, but kinda hard to Trust it when GFS AND EURO dont I think the other models will play catch up and will trend colder, thinking the Foothills will also do ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 18 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Which, will probably change at 12z lol I don't remember the Canadian doing well at all this winter. I agree I don't see much going on the next 2 weeks, not cold enough IMO. Keeping my eye on mid month and on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 4 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: I don't remember the Canadian doing well at all this winter. I agree I don't see much going on the next 2 weeks, not cold enough IMO. Keeping my eye on mid month and on. Canadian was one of the first ones to get that stripe of snow in the December storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 21 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: I don't remember the Canadian doing well at all this winter. I agree I don't see much going on the next 2 weeks, not cold enough IMO. Keeping my eye on mid month and on. It nailed the last two major events. It was stellar the last storm. The German and Canadian had the storm consistently, from 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Last nights discussion from RAH: Saturday Night through Tuesday: A complex weather pattern begins to take shape late Saturday, as the controlling area of high pressure is forced off the Mid Atlantic Coastline by a digging upper-leveltrough. Closer to the surface, a series of short waves will round the base of the trough helping to initiate the initial stages ofcyclogenesis across the Gulf Coast, progressing a strengthening winter storm north and east to off of the North Carolina Coastline by early Monday morning. Both the GFS/ECMWF continue to come into better agreement with the overall timing, but still differ in overall impacts across our region. In general, expect precipitation to push north and east into the area mainly after sunrise on Sunday and continue for roughly 24 hours into early Monday morning. Some concern that the precipitation may start as a wintry mix at the onset, but with arrival time being pushed back by a few hours with the latest model trends, this threat seems to be becoming lesslikely. Have kept the possibility of a mix of rain/snow mainly west of US-1 before 10am on Sunday, before transitioning the precipitation type back to all rain through Sunday Night. Another transition back to light snowfall will be possible early Monday morning as the low lifts north and east, with high pressure soon to fill in Monday evening into Tuesday. Plenty of uncertainty with this portion of the forecast, so be sure to check back frequently as we monitor the changing guidance and weather trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 10 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: It nailed the last two major events. It was stellar the last storm. The German and Canadian had the storm consistently, from 5 days out. Ok, thanks just didn't remember that. I just remember all the global models going back and forth with the last storm and none but the meso-scale models like the NAM really showed the real threat. Will keep an eye on it to see how it does this month.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Hard to be overly excited about anything more than a brief period of wintry mix this weekend. There is no strong high in the right position, and the cold air source isn't as cold as I'd like to see. So far, I'm not impressed with a really cold and stormy pattern setting up anytime soon either. Looks cooler than normal mostly and certainly no torch. So that's good. Plus, there seem to be multiple precip events. So that's good. But it looks like moderate/precip/cold/moderate/precip/cold to me. Perfect timing will be very key over the next 15 days. Hopefully, the last half of the month and into March will provide a more solid period of sustained cold. That seems to be and have been the consensus. We'll see, I guess. Here's the last run of the CFS for Feb. Not bad: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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