JoshM Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 6 minutes ago, WarmNose said: CJ gave it the kiss of death and said "we'll keep an eye on it" He's hugging the euro atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 I still use it, but I'm old! What's the GEFS say about the 5-6th storm?No snow for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 nice fat flakes in Todd tonight...elevated areas are covered and a bit of coverage on roads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 22 minutes ago, WarmNose said: CJ gave it the kiss of death and said "we'll keep an eye on it" Hell, him not saying all rain or zero chance of snow, is a win for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Hell, him not saying all rain or zero chance of snow, is a win for me! Anxiously awaiting Brad Panoviches thoughts !? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 10 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Anxiously awaiting Brad Panoviches thoughts !? All I know is he's all in about the mtns cashing in next couple of weeks. but he won't call snow for down there til it's falling so you got a bit of waiting to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Tonight's Euro Weeklies look a little better than the last run for Feb. They hold western ridging from roughly Feb 10 to the end of Feb in an ideal location right up the W North America coastline and up through E Alaska with some cross polar flow out of NE Siberia (this matches well with the projected MJO progression)....with cool temp anomalies in the eastern U.S. down thru Florida. They begin to go above normal with temps in early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 That’s perfect. Let’s get a couple big dogs the middle and end of February and then bring on a normal spring. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Thanks Grit. When are we projected to move into MJO 8? Is that ~Feb 10th as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 18 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Thanks Grit. We are we projected to move into MJO 8? Is that ~Feb 10th as well? My thoughts on it from this morning - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50522-mid-to-long-term-discussion-2018/?do=findComment&comment=4799251 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Got it. Was trying to look at that earlier today from mobile with those crappy pop ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 0z Cmc is a nice hit Monday in NC. Gfs is close. Difference is GFS has lp inland and cmc offshore which gives northern and western NC a colder profile. More is on the heels of Monday so plenty of shots coming up. Right now it's Monday event that is track worthy imo. Canadian has been pretty consistent with it and gfs to a degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lettucesnow Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 11 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: 0z Cmc is a nice hit Monday in NC. Gfs is close. Difference is GFS has lp inland and cmc offshore which gives northern and western NC a colder profile. More is on the heels of Monday so plenty of shots coming up. Right now it's Monday event that is track worthy imo. Canadian has been pretty consistent with it and gfs to a degree. In addition to the relative model agreement, which I'm sure will be all over the place between now and then, it's optimistic to see both GSP and RAH have at least some mention of frozen precip. in the mid-range forecast (i.e. Thursday-Friday and Sunday/Monday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 this actually looks very promising. for rdu vast majority of gefs members track a low in a much more favorable position, more like the canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 6z GFS is ok. Looks like a Roxboro/Greensboro special with ice and mix. Very end of the storm gives most of NC some flurries. SC gets zilch. Perfect track of the low over Savannah to off SC coast, just not enough cold air. SE trend!?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 I think Robert (WxSouth) has been checking out the discussion in here! He actually said" a buffet of shortwaves " coming for Feb, in a lengthy FB post last night!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 6z GFS continues to show the threat for next Monday. RAH keeping an eye on this: Saturday through Monday: With high pressure building in, expect quieter and cooler conditions to stick around on Saturday ahead of a much more complex weather pattern set to begin as early as Sunday morning. While model guidance varies widely at this point, the overall pattern seems to indicate that a period of wintry weather will be possible Sunday into Monday. Based on current 00z model guidance, it seems that the best period for frozen precipitation may actually be a bit delayed, arriving with a rather robust burst of cold air on Monday, however, with a cold airmass in place and timing of the initial moisture surge expected during the overnight hours Sunday, a mix of light rain/snow isn`t out of the question as early as Sunday morning. Still plenty of changes likely to occur with this this challenging setup, so stay tuned over the next several days as the forecast begins to clear up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Trim about 10 degrees off the temps for the Sun/Mon , could be a pretty big deal. Definitely bares watching! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Now we're talking...Siberia opens up into the central and eastern US per the below on the latest GEFS. With moisture too.... Hopefully all the guidance comes around to this. GEPS is not there...haven't seen the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Now we're talking...Siberia opens up into the central and eastern US per the below on the latest GEFS. With moisture too.... Hopefully all the guidance comes around to this. GEPS is not there...haven't seen the EPS. EPS is not even close to this look, with regards to the cold! It's aloe warmer, but people are saying GEFS did better with last severe cold shot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 @ Jon Wall says the chances for wintry for the Sun/Mon are very slim, even RAH will struggle to get any frozen at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 La Ninas almost never feature long tracked storms. The next one we deal with is going to show up within 6 days, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: La Ninas almost never feature long tracked storms. The next one we deal with is going to show up within 6 days, IMO. the last one really seemed to pop out of nowhere, maybe 5 day lead time? The early December hit for GA seemed quick too. I think in a week or so, there's going to be a lot of tracking going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Day 6/7 ish has a good look to me for a snow or mix to ice and/or rain. Pattern would support it (PNA ridge is back, troughiness over the NW atlantic, good shot of cold air this coming weekend and a string of HP's over the northern tier. Need to see some consistency in modeling over the next few days before getting too confident. Would say interior sections would fair best in this setup from a changeover perspective ( will likely be a GOM SLP up the coastline). Will go more into over the next few days if the pattern look holds. Woke up to some slush on the car tops and white rooftops here in NW Raleigh. The thaw is over folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 EPS is not even close to this look, with regards to the cold! It's aloe warmer, but people are saying GEFS did better with last severe cold shot!Mack, your buddy says the Euro has done horrible this winter in his opinion. He’s going with the GFS on the cold. Said the Euro just has not seen the cold this winter!! I know you talking about the EPS though. He said weeklies have not done good so far either? IDK . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 GEFS had a strong storm signal for next week. The control and a couple of panels are some huge hits for here. And I like how things are evolving and changing inside 7 days. That's how the last storm worked out, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: GEFS had a strong storm signal for next week. The control and a couple of panels are some huge hits for here. And I like how things are evolving and changing inside 7 days. That's how the last storm worked out, too. Yeah Brick but that last storm had different dynamics in play I believe than this upcoming 'event' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 8 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Mack, your buddy says the Euro has done horrible this winter in his opinion. He’s going with the GFS on the cold. Said the Euro just has not seen the cold this winter!! I know you talking about the EPS though. He said weeklies have not done good so far either? IDK . Which one JB or Webber or Brick or Wilkes?? The Sun/Mon storm probably is just a Rainer . Per 6z GFS , but seems like some more chances to come! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Everybody wants to be Mack's friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 9 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Everybody wants to be Mack's friend. Where's Rain_Cold? Best stretch of winter since 2000 is incoming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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