snowlover91 Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I wonder what's going with models? CPC has been continually above average precip in the 6-10 and 8-14 day for about 3 weeks. It's obviously going to stay dry for a while. West coast ridge really flexing on 12z GFS ensembles in 7-14 days, pretty new development since 2009. Yeah just like that above normal pattern you predicted for December even though models said it would be BN and it verified BN like the models showed... all these crazy conspiracy theories of yours are just that... just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 1 hour ago, IWC said: Your so worried about your back yard! Buy a snow maker... Great call Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Yeah I've had over 1" of dry since last night, pattern looks wetter over all the next few weeks Haha I was literally just about to post the same thing. I got soaking dry in the way to church this morning! Chuck is extremely knowledgeable, but he confuses the crap out of me sometimes. When it’s currently raining on my head, and then I look at a 16 day model prog, and it shows 3 or 4 more precipitation events for my area, words like “dry” and “drought” really don’t come to mind. I don’t know....it’s just a matter of perspective, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 A Cold Wet pattern, This is not an unrealistic expectation.... Says BJB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Yeah it would be unrealistic that there wouldn't be some snow with a +600 block over the arctic circle in mid Winter. It's really thin ice though with the NAO going so positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 3 hours ago, griteater said: That's fine, but no one wants to hear mumbling and grumbling and whining in this thread. There are other threads specifically for that. Plus we hear enough of that at home. Some people just think they are exempt from the culture that’s been cultivated here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 2 hours ago, BIG FROSTY said: A Cold Wet pattern, This is not an unrealistic expectation.... Says BJB Who is BJB or is that a typo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 14 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: Who is BJB or is that a typo? That's him and his buddy powerstrokes best friend, AKA Big Joe Bastardi! Shocking that he's saying cold and wet East! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Feed the positive dog guys. The pattern is reshuffling for a winter finale. We can all hope it works out in our favor and it very well may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 47 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: That's him and his buddy powerstrokes best friend, AKA Big Joe Bastardi! Shocking that he's saying cold and wet East! Ole king mackerel he knows who it is.................... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Anyone notice how well the GFS has been running the last 31 days for the Northern Hemisphere?it's past the Ukie and at 144 even more of a difference.Right now may be the closest I've ever seen to the Euro in scoring so it might be worth looking at day 5 and 6 for a while. Hit the go button on the top left beside height http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: Anyone notice how well the GFS has been running the last 31 days for the Northern Hemisphere?it's past the Ukie and at 144 even more of a difference.Right now may be the closest I've ever seen to the Euro in scoring so it might be worth looking at day 5 and 6 for a while. Hit the go button on the top left beside height http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ The 5th/6th storm still interesting on 18z! Bares watching! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: The 5th/6th storm still interesting on 18z! Bares watching! Yeah if you live in Charleston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 14 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: Anyone notice how well the GFS has been running the last 31 days for the Northern Hemisphere?it's past the Ukie and at 144 even more of a difference.Right now may be the closest I've ever seen to the Euro in scoring so it might be worth looking at day 5 and 6 for a while. Hit the go button on the top left beside height http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ I would like to learn how to read it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 10 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Yeah if you live in Charleston It's not often Charleston's season-to-date snowfall exceeds DC's. Charleston - 5.3" Washington National - 3.1" Dulles - 5.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Ill take the 18Z GFS for Feb 5-6th, the trend all winter has been for slower, stronger and more neutral to neg tilted troughs as we get closer to the event.......if that trend plays out again then Feb 5-6th would be much snowier in the Carolinas. Especially my end of the state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 15 minutes ago, Eric said: It's not often Charleston's season-to-date snowfall exceeds DC's. Charleston - 5.3" Washington National - 3.1" Dulles - 5.0" Im at 5.4” so even I have had more snow than DC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 On the 18z GFS , other than lack of moisture, there is no cold air feed or wedging. At one point, there's a blip of a high over PA, but the predominant one is in KS, and that works out never! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 50 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: The 5th/6th storm still interesting on 18z! Bares watching! Which statement is right ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 I got a feeling for Feb 5. gulf low with a cold shot coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Like Ron Burgundy's dog when it ate the whole wheel of cheese and pooped in the refrigerator, the NAO is going from annoying to amazing. Crossed over from negative almost exactly on Dec 1 and has been positive every single day since (although sometimes very close to zero). I am curious to see if we can get through a whole Met winter with not one single day negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Why can't our snowstorms come with this kind of rain saturation we're getting now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 8 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Like Ron Burgundy's dog when it ate the whole wheel of cheese and pooped in the refrigerator, the NAO is going from annoying to amazing. Crossed over from negative almost exactly on Dec 1 and has been positive every single day since (although sometimes very close to zero). I am curious to see if we can get through a whole Met winter with not one single day negative. Yeah, easily! It only goes negative in the spring and summer! Negative NAO in winter hasn't happened in last 3-5 winters atleast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 4 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Why can't our snowstorms come with this kind of rain saturation we're getting now? Agree, why can't we get snow like when we get rain all last night and today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Would be awesome if we got this kind of precip with temps below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 5 hours ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: Who is BJB or is that a typo? JB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Yeah, easily! It only goes negative in the spring and summer! Negative NAO in winter hasn't happened in last 3-5 winters atleast Went back and looked at the data for the last two winters from ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/. To no one's surprise, +NAO dominates, but in neither case was it a shutout. 2014-2015 had 16 out of 91 days below 0, while 2015 - 2016 had 35 out of 90. This winter we are batting 0 for 58. Below are graphs I made of the data for both years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 9 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Went back and looked at the data for the last two winters from ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/. To no one's surprise, +NAO dominates, but in neither case was it a shutout. 2014-2015 had 16 out of 91 days below 0, while 2015 - 2016 had 35 out of 90. This winter we are batting 0 for 58. Below are graphs I made of the data for both years. What about 13/14 winter? We had a good February and March snow wise. How was NAO during those month February and March 2014? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 hour ago, BIG FROSTY said: JB What I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Quick glance 0z. Canadian had snow in western NC over to triad next Sat. Changes to rain. Miller Bish looking deal. Mtns had a few hits, rain to snow, vice versa, no biggies on icon and gfs. Check the ukie and euro in the a.m. Didn't bother looking past 6 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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