mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: GFS says why wait til mid Feb for cold and active weather That Feb 6th storm, is gonna be Amazeballs! SC/NC special! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, griteater said: GFS says why wait til mid Feb for cold and active weather yep was just about to mention that day 7 looks positively primed interesting what happens beyond that, reminds me of the look the gfs gave one of our earlier in the month storms at about that range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 GFS finally getting a clue?? Pattern change looks legit on this run. Why wait to mid February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: GFS finally getting a clue?? Pattern change looks legit on this run. Why wait to mid February fab feb incoming! just nobody look beyond 240 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Disco-lemonade said: fab feb incoming! just nobody look beyond 240 hrs I hate to look past day 5! There's another storm on the 9th, rain verbatim, but a wet pattern , with cold nearby, and inside 10 days, abound all you can ask for at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 The GFS snow map that run gives me and Rain Cold about 2-3", Carolina coast about 10", seems about right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: I hate to look past day 5! There's another storm on the 9th, rain verbatim, but a wet pattern , with cold nearby, and inside 10 days, abound all you can ask for at this point definitely active through 348 lots of precip in the south, interested to see if the gefs has a precip max in the south... with some fat cold highs dropping out of canada I have no doubt we will time something up real nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 man I just cant get over how great that looks I mean you really couldn't draw it up much better in my mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Disco-lemonade said: man I just cant get over how great that looks I mean you really couldn't draw it up much better in my mind A little blocking would make it perfect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 10 minutes ago, Disco-lemonade said: definitely active through 348 lots of precip in the south, interested to see if the gefs has a precip max in the south... with some fat cold highs dropping out of canada I have no doubt we will time something up real nice Pattern looks active active active. Need just a hint of that SER in the background and we can pound out marginal big dogs for the rest of the month. There's no way we screw this one up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: A little blocking would make it perfect! lets check the gfs block-o-scope 3000 well the pna and ao sure look great but dang that nao! though we didnt have the nao on our side earlier in the month either see the ensembles shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 in short range news look at how the ensembles have increased totals on this weekends rain storm... some what of a theme this winter... most winters actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 total precip out into fantasy and it looks good, max in the south (active) min in the northern midwest (arctic highs), I'd say at this juncture it looks like weve got a nice shot at some snow in the south before winter is over however, that max west of the apps indicates plenty of runners in there so everybody cant always win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 I tell you what...the last 2 runs of the GFS have been very interesting! If the GFS were to be true, we are entering a pattern where it is a train of one small hit after another, strung out over a week, which leads me to ask...what are the other models showing for the 5th through the 12th??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Pattern looks active active active. Need just a hint of that SER in the background and we can pound out marginal big dogs for the rest of the month. There's no way we screw this one up Sure there is. We always manage to find a way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 The 2-3rd storm looks anemic on 12z GFS , but on a side note, big changes are afoot! There are currently 1000+ blackbirds feeding in the backyard and or in all the trees as far as the eye can see! Never seen anything like it, and when a group flies off, they are going South! The noise of all their cackling, is truly amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PisgahNCWeather Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Just now, mackerel_sky said: The 2-3rd storm looks anemic on 12z GFS , but on a side note, big changes are afoot! There are currently 1000+ blackbirds feeding in the backyard and or in all the trees as far as the eye can see! Never seen anything like it, and when a group flies off, they are going South! The noise of all their cackling, is truly amazing! Nothing like blackbirds cackling I always say. If you listened closely you would hear them saying that "The Mother is coming!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 So close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: So close... I think we can get a decent hit off that with the CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: I think we can get a decent hit off that with the CAD CAD? The high is over Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said: I think we can get a decent hit off that with the CAD That's the problem with all storms this year, all the cold air has been west of the apps or already in place. No CAD storms this year yet. The 5th storm looks like Dookie, cause cold air filtering into a storm never works for mby anyway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 9 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: So close... Yet so far away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: That's the problem with all storms this year, all the cold air has been west of the apps or already in place. No CAD storms this year yet. The 5th storm looks like Dookie, cause cold air filtering into a storm never works for mby anyway! Your so worried about your back yard! Buy a snow maker... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, IWC said: Your so worried about your back yard! Buy a snow maker... Thanks for the advice! Don't you have somebody to plow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Euro and Ukie look good at day 6 and 7 bringing down the first shot of the hammer,it's right on time.Solar,QBO,MJO,Strat look favorable for a cold spell. Also I don't think you'll have to wait to hit phase 8 of the MJO to get in the thick of it,phase 7 will and has produced.Using 2009-10 as a guide and what happened in Dec: Dec 18-19 2009 storm phase 7 Jan 29-30 2010 storm phase 7 Dec 8-9 2017 phase 7 3 times is not a fluke it's a trend in my opinion,when you have great signals everything gets pushed up quicker.if I were a betting man I'd watch around day 10 for something inbound. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 I think we all care about our back yards..why would I want to sit here and read the Storm Observation thread while I get 33 degree rain? We root for each other but obviously our neck of the woods is top priority Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 11 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Yet so far away Give it time. That is not a bad look for a snowstorm. Slow that LP down just a tad, and that would be a big dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 43 minutes ago, WarmNose said: I think we all care about our back yards..why would I want to sit here and read the Storm Observation thread while I get 33 degree rain? We root for each other but obviously our neck of the woods is top priority That's fine, but no one wants to hear mumbling and grumbling and whining in this thread. There are other threads specifically for that. Plus we hear enough of that at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 I wonder what's going with models? CPC has been continually above average precip in the 6-10 and 8-14 day for about 3 weeks. It's obviously going to stay dry for a while. West coast ridge really flexing on 12z GFS ensembles in 7-14 days, pretty new development since 2009, was a little bit weaker for the last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 1 minute ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I wonder what's going with models? CPC has been continually above average precip in the 6-10 and 8-14 day for about 3 weeks. It's obviously going to stay dry for a while. West coast ridge really flexing on 12z GFS ensembles in 7-14 days, pretty new development since 2009, was a little bit weaker for the last month. Yeah I've had over 1" of dry since last night, pattern looks wetter over all the next few weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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