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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95

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1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

I hate to look past day 5! There's another storm on the 9th, rain verbatim, but a wet pattern , with cold nearby, and inside 10 days, abound all you can ask for at this point

definitely active through 348 lots of precip in the south, interested to see if the gefs has a precip max in the south... with some fat cold highs dropping out of canada I have no doubt we will time something up real nice

gfs_apcpn_us_49.png

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10 minutes ago, Disco-lemonade said:

definitely active through 348 lots of precip in the south, interested to see if the gefs has a precip max in the south... with some fat cold highs dropping out of canada I have no doubt we will time something up real nice

gfs_apcpn_us_49.png

Pattern looks active active active. Need just a hint of that SER in the background and we can pound out marginal big dogs for the rest of the month.

There's no way we screw this one up :):( 

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total precip out into fantasy and it looks good, max in the south (active) min in the northern midwest (arctic highs), I'd say at this juncture it looks like weve got a nice shot at some snow in the south before winter is over :)

however, that max west of the apps indicates plenty of runners in there so everybody cant always win

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_44.png

 

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I tell you what...the last 2 runs of the GFS have been very interesting! If the GFS were to be true, we are entering a pattern where it is a train of one small hit after another, strung out over a week, which leads me to ask...what are the other models showing for the 5th through the 12th???  

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The 2-3rd storm looks anemic on 12z GFS , but on a side note, big changes are afoot! There are currently 1000+ blackbirds feeding in the backyard and or in all the trees as far as the eye can see! Never seen anything like it, and when a group flies off, they are going South! The noise of all their cackling, is truly amazing!

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Just now, mackerel_sky said:

The 2-3rd storm looks anemic on 12z GFS , but on a side note, big changes are afoot! There are currently 1000+ blackbirds feeding in the backyard and or in all the trees as far as the eye can see! Never seen anything like it, and when a group flies off, they are going South! The noise of all their cackling, is truly amazing!

Nothing like blackbirds cackling I always say. If you listened closely you would hear them saying that "The Mother is coming!"

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1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said:

I think we can get a decent hit off that with the CAD

That's the problem with all storms this year, all the cold air has been west of the apps or already in place. No CAD storms this year yet. The 5th storm looks like Dookie, cause cold air filtering into a storm never works for mby anyway! 

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1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

That's the problem with all storms this year, all the cold air has been west of the apps or already in place. No CAD storms this year yet. The 5th storm looks like Dookie, cause cold air filtering into a storm never works for mby anyway! 

Your so worried about your back yard! Buy a snow maker...

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Euro and Ukie look good at day 6 and 7 bringing down the first shot of the hammer,it's right on time.Solar,QBO,MJO,Strat look favorable for a cold spell.

Also I don't think you'll have to wait to hit phase 8 of the MJO to get in the thick of it,phase 7 will and has produced.Using 2009-10 as a guide and what happened in Dec:

Dec 18-19 2009 storm   phase 7

Jan 29-30 2010 storm  phase 7

Dec 8-9 2017 phase 7

3 times is not a fluke it's a trend in my opinion,when you have great signals everything gets pushed up quicker.if I were a betting man I'd watch around day 10  for something inbound.

Carry on.

 

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43 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

I think we all care about our back yards..why would I want to sit here and read the Storm Observation thread while I get 33 degree rain? We root for each other but obviously our neck of the woods is top priority 

That's fine, but no one wants to hear mumbling and grumbling and whining in this thread. There are other threads specifically for that. Plus we hear enough of that at home. :lol:

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I wonder what's going with models? CPC has been continually above average precip in the 6-10 and 8-14 day for about 3 weeks. It's obviously going to stay dry for a while. West coast ridge really flexing on 12z GFS ensembles in 7-14 days, pretty new development since 2009, was a little bit weaker for the last month. 

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1 minute ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

I wonder what's going with models? CPC has been continually above average precip in the 6-10 and 8-14 day for about 3 weeks. It's obviously going to stay dry for a while. West coast ridge really flexing on 12z GFS ensembles in 7-14 days, pretty new development since 2009, was a little bit weaker for the last month. 

Yeah I've had over 1" of dry since last night, pattern looks wetter over all the next few weeks

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