mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 49 minutes ago, Solak said: 6z GFS says soggy times ahead... (KJNX) 16 day TOTAL PRECIP: 4.15 " and Convective: 0.11 " Perfect time to have no cold air around! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Perfect time to have no cold air around! Oooops! Pattern is $$$$ after the 8th! Open the buffet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Let. The. Pattern. Change. Happen. Everything before the second week of Feb is just a bonus. Some of y'all gotta stop whining or move to the sanitarium. Shortest long term AFD? AKQ does not even mention the possibility for wintry precip on Friday .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Dry with a warming trend Wed and Thurs as the high pushes offshore. Cold Tues nite with lows in the upr teens-mid 20s. Highs Wed in the upr 30s-lwr 40s. Lows Wed nite in the upr 20s-lwr 30s. Highs Thurs in the 50s. Next cold front crosses the area Friday. Warm enough for pcpn to be rain before anthr shot of arctic air moves in for next weekend. Highs Fri in the 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 CAE NWS latest output && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... After maybe a few lingering light sprinkles early in the morning Monday, drier and cooler air will once again return to the area through Wednesday as high pressure at the surface dominates. By Thursday the upper pattern flattens out and then turns more southwesterly once again ahead of the next rain maker. This next front is expected to cross the region Thursday night and Friday. Temperatures cool through Tuesday, then gradually warm, and return to near or above normal by Thursday. Colder air will move in behind the front Friday night. There is a lot of uncertainty at this point, but if enough moisture lingers into Saturday morning, there could be some light snow to the north. Have kept mention out of the forecast for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Just looking at the 12z 2m GEFS run shows a dominant SER all the way to Feb. 7th, then cold takes over. Will trend colder due to CAD I believe but overall look is way better than the 6z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 13 hours ago, tramadoc said: Redneck comment if there ever was one. LOL. Just having fun brother. is appropriate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 The AO (not NAO, look at your N Hemi Ens maps) in the 7-14 range should be a good representation of do we keep the PV in Central CA, or does a dominant lobe break off and exit stage right over southern Greenland. The MJO amplitude in mid phase 5 may not put us in to the holly grail days 14+, rather a de-amplification in phase 7 vs a high push in to phase 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 1 hour ago, SteveVa said: Let. The. Pattern. Change. Happen. Everything before the second week of Feb is just a bonus. Some of y'all gotta stop whining or move to the sanitarium. Shortest long term AFD? AKQ does not even mention the possibility for wintry precip on Friday .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Dry with a warming trend Wed and Thurs as the high pushes offshore. Cold Tues nite with lows in the upr teens-mid 20s. Highs Wed in the upr 30s-lwr 40s. Lows Wed nite in the upr 20s-lwr 30s. Highs Thurs in the 50s. Next cold front crosses the area Friday. Warm enough for pcpn to be rain before anthr shot of arctic air moves in for next weekend. Highs Fri in the 50s. There is nothing before the 2nd week of February and no person or model can predict even the large scale weather pattern farther out than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 We have about as much of a chance at getting a snowy last half of Feb, as the Tarheels have of beating State! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 12 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: We have about as much of a chance at getting a snowy last half of Feb, as the Tarheels have of beating State! Well you must have forgot February 2014. Snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: We have about as much of a chance at getting a snowy last half of Feb, as the Tarheels have of beating State! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 1 hour ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: Well you must have forgot February 2014. Snowstorm No, I'll never forget 2014 Feb storm. Euro snow map showed me getting 20" 2 days out, got 2" of sleet, it was awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: No, I'll never forget 2014 Feb storm. Euro snow map showed me getting 20" 2 days out, got 2" of sleet, it was awesome Likely a stock 10:1 snow flag, no more than weenie click bait, you over-performed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 2 hours ago, burrel2 said: There is nothing before the 2nd week of February and no person or model can predict even the large scale weather pattern farther out than that. Hmm, surprised you would say that. Should be able to take ENSO + MJO and some model weeklies (EURO/CFS/JMA) to pump out large scale pattern ideas for weeks 3-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: No, I'll never forget 2014 Feb storm. Euro snow map showed me getting 20" 2 days out, got 2" of sleet, it was awesome I would have agreed with your memory as we only got 4" of snow and sleet that evening but then hit the jackpot with the UL deformation band that sat on us all the following morning to pile on a very fast 8" of additional snow. Too bad once the UL pulled out it, the temps shot up and melted most of it away that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 10 minutes ago, Wow said: I would have agreed with your memory as we only got 4" of snow and sleet that evening but then hit the jackpot with the UL deformation band that sat on us all the following morning to pile on a very fast 8" of additional snow. Too bad once the UL pulled out it, the temps shot up and melted most of it away that day. I remember getting a Thundersnow on that one! The flakes were SO HUGE! Ended up with 12' of snow total. Great storm, thanks to the Deformation band that formed over us!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 55 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: No, I'll never forget 2014 Feb storm. Euro snow map showed me getting 20" 2 days out, got 2" of sleet, it was awesome Im with Mack, it looked like the storm of the century for us but ended up being a status quo event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 1 hour ago, Wow said: I would have agreed with your memory as we only got 4" of snow and sleet that evening but then hit the jackpot with the UL deformation band that sat on us all the following morning to pile on a very fast 8" of additional snow. Too bad once the UL pulled out it, the temps shot up and melted most of it away that day. The funny thing is, in fort mill, we ended up with most of our snow that first morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: We have about as much of a chance at getting a snowy last half of Feb, as the Tarheels have of beating State! This is why I don't watch every model run and only listen to the professionals. also I have always been a Virginia fan and we beat UNC and Duke at Duke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 13 minutes ago, POWERSTROKE said: This is why I don't watch every model run and only listen to the professionals. also I have always been a Virginia fan and we beat UNC and Duke at Duke. That should be Puke at Duke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 You know it’s a boring pattern when all we got is past storms and basketball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Make that dOOK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 18 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: You know it’s a boring pattern when all we got is past storms and basketball. Might as well recharge the snow shields Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 29 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: You know it’s a boring pattern when all we got is past storms and basketball. Yes, but the basketball was fabulous today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: No, I'll never forget 2014 Feb storm. Euro snow map showed me getting 20" 2 days out, got 2" of sleet, it was awesome was this the same storm that Robert predicted chunks of ice falling from the sky and roof collapses on I85 corridor? I've never seen so much sleet in my life - I think I received a little snow at the onset then 3-4 inches of pure sleet - great sledding! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 For you hardcore model enthusiasts: Ryan Maue | weather.usVerified account @RyanMaue 5m5 minutes ago Finished development of ECMWF EPS ensemble precipitation type (PTYPE) + cyclone locations w/MSLP for @weathermodels_ All 51 ensembles at full grid resolution for 15 days. Preview here: http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/eps_ensembles.php … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 6 hours ago, griteater said: Hmm, surprised you would say that. Should be able to take ENSO + MJO and some model weeklies (EURO/CFS/JMA) to pump out large scale pattern ideas for weeks 3-4 Sure, I mean it's fun to speculate and all, but honestly when you look in to all that information for a greater than 2 week lead time, it is just that, speculating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 A DT to Roxboro special next Saturday per 0z GFS, but the cold behind that looks anemic. Hugs the Canadian border, but since we've punted to mid February, we're good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 20 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Sure, I mean it's fun to speculate and all, but honestly when you look in to all that information for a greater than 2 week lead time, it is just that, speculating. I hear ya, it IS speculation, but I just think there are times that we can have some success with forecasting the large scale pattern using educated guesses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 GFS says why wait til mid Feb for cold and active weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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