mackerel_sky Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 1 minute ago, BIG FROSTY said: Dang, just like that winter is over!! I sure didn’t think we would be through with winter in January? What the heck has happened? I just read a FB post Robert posted, he’s still talking like February is gonna have cold a maybe many possibilities for winter weather. . Everybody's still hyping it, that's the issue. NO models are showing cold in the SE through the end of their runs, Grit just posted about how bad the weeklies look, the MJO and other indices are sputtering and stalling the cold, and most telling thing is, JB has been quiet today! Mine and your hero, if his mouth isn't flapping son of Arcticgeddon 24/7, we are in trouble! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Everybody's still hyping it, that's the issue. NO models are showing cold in the SE through the end of their runs, Grit just posted about how bad the weeklies look, the MJO and other indices are sputtering and stalling the cold, and most telling thing is, JB has been quiet today! Mine and your hero, if his mouth isn't flapping son of Arcticgeddon 24/7, we are in trouble!Lol, he’s traveling. He’ll be flapping one way or another next day or so. I’m ready for spring if it’s coming soon. 🏿♀️ time!! But I suspect we’ll have another shot or two at a winter storm. I don’t want the super cold it begets dry and suppression, we just need the real cold close by to tap when that GOM opens up with a southern storm track late in the season!!! #juicystormsinFabFeb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Y'all crazy, especially you Mack! I'm pretty optimistic for mid-Feb on into March. The -EPO that develops in early Feb should deposit the bulk of the Northern Hemisphere cold into North America. As the MJO progresses east into mid-Feb, we should be in better position to receive more of that cold air with better western ridge positioning. The one fly in the ointment to me could be if the stratospheric PV strengthens and gets wound up tight where the cold air wants to stay bottled up to our north (in Canada). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 1 hour ago, BIG FROSTY said: Dang, just like that winter is over!! I sure didn’t think we would be through with winter in January? What the heck has happened? I just read a FB post Robert posted, he’s still talking like February is gonna have cold a maybe many possibilities for winter weather. . The short range continues to be dull, nice, but not that interesting. All the Wintery stuff lay out in February. All the indices MJO, AO, PNA, and most importantly, a big shift of the cold air in Russia coming to North America, all beginning next week. It will take a while to get to the Southeast, but already I'm eyeing the Tennessee Valley next Friday or so for that first major cold front to have snow behind it possibly from the mountains, west. Then things get very interesting from then on, as a tall west Ridge goes up and up, keeping the Cold Air trapped in North America, with a series of systems undercutting the bowl shaped American Trough as we head through February. Don't buy bread or milk yet--but if you're a business owner or Apartment manager, I would go out and get as much Ice Melt as you can get your hands on while the weather is still nice. Odds are , you'll need it from east TX/ OK due east across the Deep South and MidAtlantic in February. Speaking of businesses, if you need more long range info and a heads up , and want to join my monthly paid blog, shoot me a PM with your city, state and email. I'd put a lot of stick in Robert and J/ B. Remember they both predicted the January cold spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Nice NC coastal snow at 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 JB tweet just now on coming COLD!! Step down to colder pattern starting..Negative EPO develops and cold will find a way to push, then take over for much of the nation, Core of cold in mid section first but deepens into east. Remember it steps down into the abyss then hits its stride ECMWF PRECIP patterns in tropical Pacific reveal same kind of MJO rotation as December, Source regions colder though, When EPO negative, tough to hold cold out, . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Just now, BIG FROSTY said: JB tweet just now on coming COLD!! Step down to colder pattern starting..Negative EPO develops and cold will find a way to push, then take over for much of the nation, Core of cold in mid section first but deepens into east. Remember it steps down into the abyss then hits its stride . colder than early Jan.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 colder than early Jan.?He didn’t say that, So Idk. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 7 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: He didn’t say that, So Idk. . I just looked at his feed so i just caught that... but he did say this though: ”ECMWF PRECIP patterns in tropical Pacific reveal same kind of MJO rotation as December, Source regions colder though, When EPO negative, tough to hold cold out.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 STRONG apps rubber at 186 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 4 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: STRONG apps rubber at 186 patience LITTLE grasshopper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 shift it south and I will be satisfied, but you NC folks will be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 -23 near the WIS/CAN border at 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 On 12/19/2017 at 7:46 PM, packbacker said: Agreed! Only a bunch of suckers can screw this up. Fool proof. Mack's reply "I don't like all this positivity from Pack! I'll bet you two bags of preemergent, that I don't see an inch of snow or ice accums with this "awesome " pattern coming up!" You guys just got to wait for things to shake out. I went back and read the Dec. thread and it was fushadey all over again. Mack, when he comes back I believe you owe Pack two bags of preemergent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 4 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: Mack's reply "I don't like all this positivity from Pack! I'll bet you two bags of preemergent, that I don't see an inch of snow or ice accums with this "awesome " pattern coming up!" You guys just got to wait for things to shake out. I went back and read the Dec. thread and it was fushadey all over again. Mack, when he comes back I believe you owe Pack two bags of preemergent. Deal! My statement above stands above for Fab Feb! GFS was a dumpster fire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Deal! My statement above stands above for Fab Feb! GFS was a dumpster fire Maybe you want get anything but NC will. I will have about 200 bags of pre emergent if you come up short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 11 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: GFS was a dumpster fire It was the 6z GFS (which typically runs hot anyway) and the end of the run is still on the 11th. If deep cold hasn’t shown up by this coming Wednesday THEN we can call torch. Go look at the 6z GEFS, the 2m and 850mb temps trended colder compared to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 8 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said: Nice NC coastal snow at 108 6z GFS still shows it along with the day 8 event. Problem with both, the first is a clipper and the second is cold chasing/overtaking rain. Both can work(like last storm), but usually don't. Something to keep an eye on but I wouldn't get excited until we get a lot closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 LR GFS is really having trouble beating back that SER I've seen this before. I won't be fooled We are in the freezer by the 12th of February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 7 minutes ago, FallsLake said: 6z GFS still shows it along with the day 8 event. Problem with both, the first is a clipper and the second is cold chasing/overtaking rain. Both can work(like last storm), but usually don't. Something to keep an eye on but I wouldn't get excited until we get a lot closer. The last storm didn't get modeled well until 48 hrs out and was not even on the radar really 5 days out or so....its funny folks are putting stock in the GFS after 144 hrs much less 300+....once the pattern change actually starts the GFS and every other model will go wall to wall cold but I doubt they really show it well until mid next week.....its like folks don't remember the models did the exact same thing just 1 month ago with the last cold outbreak.....or that models typically have trouble resolving pattern changes and try to flip back to the existing pattern instead of locking into the new pattern in the mid to long range.....its like that literally every single time there is a major change in the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: The last storm didn't get modeled well until 48 hrs out and was not even on the radar really 5 days out or so....its funny folks are putting stock in the GFS after 144 hrs much less 300+....once the pattern change actually starts the GFS and every other model will go wall to wall cold but I doubt they really show it well until mid next week.....its like folks don't remember the models did the exact same thing just 1 month ago with the last cold outbreak.....or that models typically have trouble resolving pattern changes and try to flip back to the existing pattern instead of locking into the new pattern.....its like that literally every single time there is a major change in the pattern. some think the models are golden and true, but they can’t beat God (NOT trying to stir a hornet nest, was just stating my opinion.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 I’m shorting late Feb and March preemergent futures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 9 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I’m shorting late Feb and March preemergent futures. Hug CMC then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 It's painful to have to watch the first half of February go down with a "close the blinds" pattern and a SE ridge. Relying on the second half of February is really cutting it close. I know we can snow in March, but they're just so meh and rare I don't follow. But who knows, we could get nice and cold...the STJ could kick in with the help of the MJO and we could get another Feb 26-27, 2004 to close out the winter! Can't complain though, I got a decent snow and I'm grateful for that. Let's see what late February holds as a bonus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 JB, this morning, comment on the Euro! He thinks the Euro is cold, but not cold enough!! He said Right now, the MJO is loaded for bear in the warm phases and the result has been the thaw that we are experiencing........ So During the second week of February, the precipitation pattern looks like its into Phase 8.... He thinks we are starting the step down period here, and the coldest 20 days comes February 17 - March 7. The slow move of the MJO will extend cold well into March. There is still warmth in the first few days, but this is headed toward our analog. With bitter cold ready to come down from the arctic, once the MJO lines up, a similar evolution with the magnitude of cold should occur. The teleconnections have a deep negative EPO developing quickly, which suggests the Euro's Week 2 & 3 temperatures are suspect, as that would favor more cold farther to the east............................. Guess we'll see pretty soon! Hope everybody has a great day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 GFS/Euro both give eastern NC a dusting Monday night....be interesting to see if the NAM picks up on it....shouldbt be much not enough moisture to turn into anything significant but if we can squeeze a .5-1" out of it it will be the 3rd time this year the ground is covered with snow... MHX AFD "Last several runs of ECM/GFS have come in more bullish on moisture with this mid level feature. There will be plenty of lift in the 850-700MB layer, and enough moisture availability to squeeze out some light precip. Temps at the same time will be cooling from top-down through the overnight, and have introduced small pops for -SN or -SN/-RA late Mon night through early Tue morning. Best chance for flakes will be across nrn zones where deeper moisture and colder column coexist. At this time not expecting travel problems as amounts look to be quite light whatever falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 I’ve learned a lot this winter. We don’t need a raging STJ to score big. STJ is a blessing and a curse. Too much WAA for a lot of areas in this forum. It seems they are storms with mixing issues (down here) but typically big ones. This northern stream dominant winter has been awesome. Reminds me of the is book I read called who moved my cheese. We are all looking for the perfect pattern when we had a -NAO and a STJ. We can score in other ways too. We keep going back to cheese station A looking for our perfect pattern. It’s gone and may not comeback for a long time. Gotta find new cheese. Northern stream isn’t all that bad. Plenty of room in here for anyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: I’ve learned a lot this winter. We don’t need a raging STJ to score big. STJ is a blessing and a curse. Too much WAA for a lot of areas in this forum. It seems they are storms with mixing issues (down here) but typically big ones. This northern stream dominant winter has been awesome. Reminds me of the is book I read called who moved my cheese. We are all looking for the perfect pattern when we had a -NAO and a STJ. We can score in other ways too. Great book with a simple message. Must read for my kids and bought copies for friends that needed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 56 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: JB, this morning, comment on the Euro! He thinks the Euro is cold, but not cold enough!! He said Right now, the MJO is loaded for bear in the warm phases and the result has been the thaw that we are experiencing........ So During the second week of February, the precipitation pattern looks like its into Phase 8.... He thinks we are starting the step down period here, and the coldest 20 days comes February 17 - March 7. The slow move of the MJO will extend cold well into March. There is still warmth in the first few days, but this is headed toward our analog. With bitter cold ready to come down from the arctic, once the MJO lines up, a similar evolution with the magnitude of cold should occur. The teleconnections have a deep negative EPO developing quickly, which suggests the Euro's Week 2 & 3 temperatures are suspect, as that would favor more cold farther to the east............................. Guess we'll see pretty soon! Hope everybody has a great day! He has been spot on this winter for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 57 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: JB, this morning, comment on the Euro! He thinks the Euro is cold, but not cold enough!! He said Right now, the MJO is loaded for bear in the warm phases and the result has been the thaw that we are experiencing........ So During the second week of February, the precipitation pattern looks like its into Phase 8.... He thinks we are starting the step down period here, and the coldest 20 days comes February 17 - March 7. The slow move of the MJO will extend cold well into March. There is still warmth in the first few days, but this is headed toward our analog. With bitter cold ready to come down from the arctic, once the MJO lines up, a similar evolution with the magnitude of cold should occur. The teleconnections have a deep negative EPO developing quickly, which suggests the Euro's Week 2 & 3 temperatures are suspect, as that would favor more cold farther to the east............................. Guess we'll see pretty soon! Hope everybody has a great day! wow, the sure does sound optimistic AND it buys us another month of possible storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.