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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95

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38 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't the Euro handle the cold better early on for the last storm than the GFS?

The Euro has been better in that Day 8-15 range all winter as far as general pattern.  Back in December the GFS went crazy with a SE ridge 12/20-12/30 in the long range.  The EPS then joined it for about a day or two and everyone thought the GFS was right.  Then both models quickly reverted to a rapid cool down after 12/25.  The GFS has had issues all winter trying to pump the SE ridge over the CONUS which just hasn’t verified for any long periods.  It’s been more out in the NATL when it has verified.  The CFS has tried this too

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47 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

I agree, it looks like higher h5 heights want to hang on over the southeast muting the cold for a good while and we don't get into the trough until mid February.  Again, even then I think we have to hope for another tilted clipper or boundary layer storm. 

Yeah, just like the Christmas outbreak, never looked cold, SE ridge showing up, yadda yadda, got pretty cold if I recall. Look for models to have to catch up to the pattern change

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro has been better in that Day 8-15 range all winter as far as general pattern.  Back in December the GFS went crazy with a SE ridge 12/20-12/30 in the long range.  The EPS then joined it for about a day or two and everyone thought the GFS was right.  Then both models quickly reverted to a rapid cool down after 12/25

TY sir, always good to get your input.

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro has been better in that Day 8-15 range all winter as far as general pattern.  Back in December the GFS went crazy with a SE ridge 12/20-12/30 in the long range.  The EPS then joined it for about a day or two and everyone thought the GFS was right.  Then both models quickly reverted to a rapid cool down after 12/25.  The GFS has had issues all winter trying to pump the SE ridge over the CONUS which just hasn’t verified for any long periods.  It’s been more out in the NATL when it has verified.  The CFS has tried this too

Yes, I'm hoping that's the case for February too, as all the models seem to again keep ridging poking into the southeast for a while.  It would be nice if we could get into the trough early February instead of mid.  Give us more time to make something work...

gfs-ens_z500a_us_65.png

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I'm not very impressed with the long range pattern. It looks like at best we will be a slightly cooler than normal pattern with the big Central Canada vortex cranking out storms that consistently cut to our west.

 

Maybe the pattern will evolve in a favorable way after that, but we're now talking 15+day la la land time.

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JB - On the MJO,

Like before the previous cold, the midday updates are focusing on the MJO

The "look" of the day 15 euro was a hint this was still in 7 and the MJO forecast shows that

Notice even 15 days away, the forecasted amplitude is stronger than the set upfor the previous cold

 

My interpretation of this is that because it is so cold, the cold overwhelmes the pattern but with a lot of fighting over the east until it gets into 8. The danger is that the fight between intense cold and the natural resistance in phase 7 ( it is not far from 8) produces repetitive storms with snow and ice in the areas where the cold can amplify in phase 8. A slow move through phase 8 and then other phases, or even into the null phase, would still likely mean major cold. Unlike last year, there is plenty of cold on the field

 

The correction for low solar easterly qbo which is a stornger oorrelation mid and late winter would argue for continued amplitude correction,

 

Notice it moves very quickly through 5 and 6 compared to 7.

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JB and Judah Cohen predicting cold? In the EAST? Incredible!

18z GFS looks good for the possible Feb 2/3 event. Develops a slp along a front that then slides NE. Judging by the mean of the 12z EPS, it's also hinting at a possibility of some frozen precip in the same timeframe. I'm in.

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28 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said:

Anything on deck for 2/1 or 2/2?  Saw a bird carrying a snake over the mountain and that means winter weather!!!

Birds only count when they fly over Wilkesboro! ;) 

JB bumbling and stumbling about cold, imagine that!? I better trade in my preemergent for a pallet of ice melt! :( Powerstoke better ready up the plows and plan on heading North. I have dandelions blooming, saw robins today, winters over!

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7 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

Euro was colder?

Yeah prolly.  The 0z GFS has a mega SE ridge at the end of the run with the cold shifting NW.  This run gets cold prior to D10 and looks pretty cold going forward from there.  It’s much more in line with how I think thinks will line out.  Now, if we can only activate the STJ. :)

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8 hours ago, burrel2 said:

I'm not very impressed with the long range pattern. It looks like at best we will be a slightly cooler than normal pattern with the big Central Canada vortex cranking out storms that consistently cut to our west.

 

Maybe the pattern will evolve in a favorable way after that, but we're now talking 15+day la la land time.

Ditto, the maps so far are all showing that.  Cold Midwest and south central, snow apps and west. I too am hoping for an eastward progression, GSP -AUG -CAE still needs a solid snow before the end!

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