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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95

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1 hour ago, griteater said:

?? Do you mean the fact that the cold is too far to the northwest? 

Agree with Mack, those are some impressive cold numbers showing up for a long range ensemble mean, and it's trending colder at the moment at the end of the run.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the cold correct more to the south and east in time on the ensembles, especially given the eastward progression of the MJO.  Sometimes -EPO cold can get hung up too far to our northwest, but the MJO should help to move the mean western ridge eastward in time through February, with some retrogression back west toward the end of Feb into early March...we'll see.

Also, if those blues were right on top of us, we'd have some playing the suppression card (I don't even have the suppression card in my card deck, ever...bring on the cold, and let's go from there)

The Northern Hemisphere 5 day view shows that look again where the coldest air is in North America...that's a good sign for subsequent cold plunges

1.png

Great post Grit. We sure do look to have a favorable pattern coming up in a couple weeks and maybe it will stick around for a while. Hopefully most on this board will be able to score big!

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Am I allowed to talk about the upcoming pattern in the golf thread? Lol

18z GFS looks to usher in the trough even faster than previous runs. The pattern change in early Dec was never pushed back either, so there is another anecdotal argument that this winter just wants to be cold. What is different about this pattern compared to the Dec one is that the cold looks to be moving slower into the east. It gives us more time for a wave to ride the boundary and bring the goods, but the usual it could just rain caveat applies. This winter hasn't been terribly wet so I'll rather take a ptype gamble rather than very cold/dry.

Even if we score absolutely nothing from the upcoming promising pattern, 99% of the board had a great winter. AN snow and BN temps combined with a legit uber cold outbreak.

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15 minutes ago, griteater said:

Kind of amazing though that the GFS wipes out a lot of the January cold anomalies by the end of the month.  1st image is the 7 day GFS forecast.  2nd image is January to date plus the 7 day GFS forecast (to Jan 30).

Man, kind of a bummer that RDU could break the all time aob freezing record yet still end up simply dead normal

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Does it count if it hits the cart path?
i shot my first even par round this past summer. I'm a 3 handicapper
That's funny. Me too. I don't play as much as I used to. Marriage, kids, two (staring at a third) back surgeries. I haven't touched the clubs in almost two years. I'm sure I'd probably cripple myself for weeks if I did.
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2 minutes ago, tramadoc said:

Like Mack said, we need a couple of apps runners before the change.

While crushing 350+ yd drives, I glanced at the 6z GFS , not a bad look. Still has the Groundhog Day storm, rainy now, but a few trends South and East, which has been common so far, and would be a great storm!

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Impressive to say the least. I'm eager for the 12z Euro run just to see if the cold air makes it over the mountains fast enough for the upstate SC area. Also, the system on Feb 2nd seems more amped. Then again it is more then 240hrs away. Definitely worth a watch. (Also, if map is breaking rules please delete).

index.png

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5 minutes ago, Poimen said:

If I understand the prognostications correctly, the pattern won't be ideal for SE/East coast until the second week of Feb and beyond, so I wouldn't get too amped about the Feb 2-3 event.

 

I agree, it looks like higher h5 heights want to hang on over the southeast muting the cold for a good while and we don't get into the trough until mid February.  Again, even then I think we have to hope for another tilted clipper or boundary layer storm. 

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9 hours ago, cbmclean said:

Man, kind of a bummer that RDU could break the all time aob freezing record yet still end up simply dead normal

Just glancing at the RDU daily climate reports, we'll still end up below normal for the month. We had some days with very low departures to normal.

 http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=rah

 

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15 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

I agree, it looks like higher h5 heights want to hang on over the southeast muting the cold for a good while and we don't get into the trough until mid February.  Again, even then I think we have to hope for another tilted clipper or boundary layer storm. 

Doesn't give us much time. Average temps are climbing by that time.

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7 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't the Euro handle the cold better early on for the last storm than the GFS?

I believe the euro did show the massive cold blast first when we had the new years snap but then again, after the performance of the GFS with the last event, I dont know we dont decommission it. 

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