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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95

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2 hours ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Yes Sir I did get 19", 11" of it was in a four hour period. Beat all I ever seen that morning 4 inches in one hour!!! I doubt I'll ever see anything close to that again, but it sure would be nice to have a run at it......................................... 

x2. I was living in Mount Airy at the time. Unreal snow rates and I doubt I ever see snowfall rates like that again in my life. Measured 17 inches after the storm with some spots closer to 20. 

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Well I've gotten a nice solid 4 inch storm this year so I'm good if nothing else shows up.  We have really gotten fortunate the last few years.  I see the December/January pattern rebooting and starting again come mid February per pretty much all long range modeling.  I'd say that leaves a window of perhaps 2-3 weeks for one last shot. Being probably another northern stream dominate pattern, my expectations are low.  Heck I don't even fully understand how we just scored but we did, so perhaps we can find a way to do it one more time in February.  If we get another solid event, it'll truly be a memorable winter. 

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2 hours ago, mrdaddyman said:

I know it's a ways out but that looks like some serious suppression with that push of cold air so we might be back to square one where it just shoved everything South. We'll see.

If it follows the same trend(s) as December, then we will be rocking late Feb into early March with some good moisture. Something will line up outta this!

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1 hour ago, mrdaddyman said:

Well this isn't going to get it done.

eps_t850a_noram_12Z_01-23_360.thumb.png.1aba7a8b6caefbe9438940377b856e37.png

 

?? Do you mean the fact that the cold is too far to the northwest? 

Agree with Mack, those are some impressive cold numbers showing up for a long range ensemble mean, and it's trending colder at the moment at the end of the run.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the cold correct more to the south and east in time on the ensembles, especially given the eastward progression of the MJO.  Sometimes -EPO cold can get hung up too far to our northwest, but the MJO should help to move the mean western ridge eastward in time through February, with some retrogression back west toward the end of Feb into early March...we'll see.

Also, if those blues were right on top of us, we'd have some playing the suppression card (I don't even have the suppression card in my card deck, ever...bring on the cold, and let's go from there)

The Northern Hemisphere 5 day view shows that look again where the coldest air is in North America...that's a good sign for subsequent cold plunges

1.png

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