Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

[CaryWx]

2 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said:

Any way you can shift that 8-12 inch line about 50 miles East?!

you know that's a troll joke map, right?

[mackerel_sky]

2 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

you know that's a troll joke map, right?

It's only like 20-25 days away. What's the joke?

[mrdaddyman]

Just now, CaryWx said:

you know that's a troll joke map, right?

Of course. My post was meant as a joke too. I wouldn't trust a call map forecasting snow 2 days out around here much less a month.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

4 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

What's good for Mid Atlantic, is 99% of the time, not good for us. Don't remember 13/14 that well for us, but 95/96 was done for us after mid Jan

THe Mid Atlantic and North Carolina are closely connected if not sometimes synonymous, current seasonal snowfall nonwithstanding.

[tramadoc]

Gotta love the Gainesville snow love on that call map. 

Apparently someone has been to Colorado or Washington and brought some special brownies back home with them.

[NC_hailstorm]

I see 3 days with some above average temps before the rain Monday night,rest of the week looks normal to me.Lows next week are 30,29,30,and 31 that's still pretty cold.

Enjoy the thaw.

 

[Shack]

9 hours ago, RAH_MET said:

Looks like a Warhol version of Squidward. 

[cbmclean]

14 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

Agreed.  You can already see some hints of it.  Most of the indexes we track seem to be moving favorably in the LR:  AO, NAO, EPO all appear to descend toward the end of their projections, while the PNA looks to head up.  The MJO is making its way around the horn (or depending on the model, taking a shortcut through the COD) toward the more favorable phases.  The CFS continues to look pretty good for Feb, and I'm hearing pretty good things about the latest run of the Weeklies.  Plus, there is at least some ongoing assault on the Strat PV.  While a unicorn in and of itself, it certainly doesn't hurt to have that happening concurrently.

In the meantime, the upper level flow isn't conducive to extreme torching or very cold outbreaks.  But, it looks like we keep some very cold air on our side of the globe, which is good.  If it's nearby, it's a lot easier to get transported into the area vs. having to build up in the source region.  We may even have an event during this period to track, for at least some portion of the area (western zones are favored, IMO).  Interesting winter for sure.

This post cheered me, and then I saw a post from Ralph Wiggum in the MA thread: " Strong signal now as we head into Feb for a +nao, -pna, +ao regime. "

Did the models flip flop or something?

[BK Rambler]

10 hours ago, LithiaWx said:

KATL is -8 for January through the 18th.  35.0 average.  Wondering how that ranks all time for ATL. 

If January 2018 ended today this would be the fifth coldest January on record (140 years) at ATL- looks like that number is going to back off some though as we finish the month.

[Tacoma]

Awfully quite in here, I know from experience that isn't a good sign, hopefully we have a couple of more storms to track, come  on Fab February.  

[frazdaddy]

7 hours ago, cbmclean said:

This post cheered me, and then I saw a post from Ralph Wiggum in the MA thread: " Strong signal now as we head into Feb for a +nao, -pna, +ao regime. "

Did the models flip flop or something?

See showmethesnows post in the MA forums mid/long disco thread. Good post on possible things to come.

[FallsLake]

Just now, Tacoma said:

Awfully quite in here, I know from experience that isn't a good sign, hopefully we have a couple of more storms to track, come  on Fab February.  

The pattern we're going into for the next two weeks is not good for east coast storms. The air is more Pacific sourced and the storm track will tend to stay to out NW (lake cutters). The one good thing is we really don't torch. After each storm passes (to the NW) as a cold front we cool down to at least normal before the next warm up and frontal passage. You would think we'll get one to two more favorable periods before winter ends. So yeah, bring on Fab February! 

[FallsLake]

12 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

See showmethesnows post in the MA forums mid/long disco thread. Good post on possible things to come.

That was a good post. The indices from yesterday look like they want to improve in the LR. So I feel good with how things are progressing. We just need one more decent winter storm; then bring on spring. 

[frazdaddy]

2 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

That was a good post. The indices from yesterday look like they want to improve in the LR. So I feel good with how things are progressing. We just need one more decent winter storm; then bring on spring. 

He made great points and the similarities to early Dec pattern are quite interesting.

[downeastnc]

47 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

He made great points and the similarities to early Dec pattern are quite interesting.

These patterns love to repeat, I mean hell they do it when we are locked into a torchy winter and they do it when we get good winters its just those are much less frequent....I have no doubt the we get another good 2-3 weeks of legit winter weather before spring...

 

run this loop and watch the cold over in Siberia start to migrate back to the Hudson Bay area....we get a tall western ridge to come back and all that good deep cold will be headed southbound....

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=T2m&runtime=2018012006&fh=0

[Cold Rain]

8 hours ago, cbmclean said:

This post cheered me, and then I saw a post from Ralph Wiggum in the MA thread: " Strong signal now as we head into Feb for a +nao, -pna, +ao regime. "

Did the models flip flop or something?

I haven’t checked out the MA thread, but will do it now!  The other guys pretty much said it, but you’ll often see patterns repeat. Plus, I know what a torch pattern looks like, I know what the freezer looks like, and I know what a thaw looks like.  There is nothing scary about the upcoming pattern from my point of view.  Looking at the 500mb charts, as time progresses, you can see how it will be able to get cold again pretty easily if it wants to.  Some winters, there is no cold anywhere nearby.  Not the case this winter.  Anyway, the upcoming pattern doesn’t look too torchy, and it’s not out of the question another event could sneak up during it.  I think there is plenty of winter left.

[Cold Rain]

Play the progression of the Euro through D10 at 500 on TT and tell me if that looks like a torch.  Looks very variable to me.  Within variability, there is always at least a chance of something.

[frazdaddy]

22 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

These patterns love to repeat, I mean hell they do it when we are locked into a torchy winter and they do it when we get good winters its just those are much less frequent....I have no doubt the we get another good 2-3 weeks of legit winter weather before spring...

 

run this loop and watch the cold over in Siberia start to migrate back to the Hudson Bay area....we get a tall western ridge to come back and all that good deep cold will be headed southbound....

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=T2m&runtime=2018012006&fh=0

That`s what I`m talking about. Flashing back to some of those late 60's winters in Greenville. We had an icestorm where we had no power and burned coal in the fireplace for 10 days.

[FallsLake]

Indies today looking better for the LR:

NAO - Actually has about 40% of the members going negative, but the average is still positive (not good, but there's hope)

AO - Has about 80% of the members going negative; with many strongly negative (good)

PNA - Has almost all the members going neutral or slightly positive (ok) 

EPO - Looks to go slightly negative (ok/good)

[mackerel_sky]

9 hours ago, cbmclean said:

This post cheered me, and then I saw a post from Ralph Wiggum in the MA thread: " Strong signal now as we head into Feb for a +nao, -pna, +ao regime. "

Did the models flip flop or something?

Sounds like they've got their own Packbacker!  20 degrees this morning , nice way to kick off a torch

[SnowGoose69]

8 hours ago, BK Rambler said:

If January 2018 ended today this would be the fifth coldest January on record (140 years) at ATL- looks like that number is going to back off some though as we finish the month.

It probably will come end up around -3.5 or so if I had to guess 

[PisgahNCWeather]

Guys no need for panic at all. Been around long enough and have seen this warm pattern before and it does fit with ones that are emphasizing pattern is reloading. It is necessary to get the warmth to bring back the cold and the talk of it being stronger than before does have merit. Enjoy the warmer pattern because the next time may be the Real McCoy that you will remember the rest of your lives.

[BK Rambler]

1 hour ago, downeastnc said:

run this loop and watch the cold over in Siberia start to migrate back to the Hudson Bay area....we get a tall western ridge to come back and all that good deep cold will be headed southbound....

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=T2m&runtime=2018012006&fh=0

Day after day of -35°C temps in Siberia - those are some tough folks.

[Bob Chill]

9 hours ago, cbmclean said:

This post cheered me, and then I saw a post from Ralph Wiggum in the MA thread: " Strong signal now as we head into Feb for a +nao, -pna, +ao regime. "

Did the models flip flop or something?

No, you guys have it right with the current disco in here....you just picked the wrong person to listen to. Lol. 

There are some similarities to how we kicked off met winter showing up but keep in mind the same pattern in Dec/Feb won't produce similar results. Background conditions with the oceans and continent are much different in Feb. It's much easier to get synoptic events to break right the back half of met winter. I'm not predicting a snow blitz or anything just that if we get 3 weeks of good stuff in Feb there are likely going to be some more widespread events. Winners and losers TBD. 

 

[Moonhowl]

1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

I haven’t checked out the MA thread, but will do it now!  The other guys pretty much said it, but you’ll often see patterns repeat. Plus, I know what a torch pattern looks like, I know what the freezer looks like, and I know what a thaw looks like.  There is nothing scary about the upcoming pattern from my point of view.  Looking at the 500mb charts, as time progresses, you can see how it will be able to get cold again pretty easily if it wants to.  Some winters, there is no cold anywhere nearby.  Not the case this winter.  Anyway, the upcoming pattern doesn’t look too torchy, and it’s not out of the question another event could sneak up during it.  I think there is plenty of winter left.

I agree; nothing about the upcoming pattern screams torch to me.  I also agree patterns tend to repeat and indices look likely to head in the direction for cold.  I have a suspicion that this will be one of those extended winter seasons when we folks in the mountains will still be getting NWF snow in April.

[Solak]

A couple Tweets from JB

1) Saturday summary on http://Weatherbell.com  later today will explain why the worst of the cold for the nation may be still on the way, I grow more impressed each day. Setups similar to other great February invasions 1967,1933,2015 being studied now along with MJO rotation years

2)

Unlike last winter, There will be some of the coldest air in the world ready to strike when MJO goes into the holy grail of cold phases in Feb 8,1,2,3 forecasted on ECMWF to where it was around Dec 17 GLAAM also heading higher Winter in west for now, but east target after thaw

[Orangeburgwx]

1 hour ago, Solak said:

A couple Tweets from JB

1) Saturday summary on http://Weatherbell.com  later today will explain why the worst of the cold for the nation may be still on the way, I grow more impressed each day. Setups similar to other great February invasions 1967,1933,2015 being studied now along with MJO rotation years

2)

Unlike last winter, There will be some of the coldest air in the world ready to strike when MJO goes into the holy grail of cold phases in Feb 8,1,2,3 forecasted on ECMWF to where it was around Dec 17 GLAAM also heading higher Winter in west for now, but east target after thaw

so you think we could have temps colder than they were the first part of January?

[tarheelwx]

The cold earlier this month was notable due to the duration.  I think GSO was aob freezing for around 204 hours straight. However, I think GSO only tied one record low and it wasn’t even during the “streak.”  So, a couple record lows in Feb cold make the case for an even colder period yet to come.

TW

[CentralNC]

32 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

The cold earlier this month was notable due to the duration.  I think GSO was aob freezing for around 204 hours straight. However, I think GSO only tied one record low and it wasn’t even during the “streak.”  So, a couple record lows in Feb cold make the case for an even colder period yet to come.

TW

Especially if we can get some snow cover :o)

[downeastnc]

1 hour ago, tarheelwx said:

The cold earlier this month was notable due to the duration.  I think GSO was aob freezing for around 204 hours straight. However, I think GSO only tied one record low and it wasn’t even during the “streak.”  So, a couple record lows in Feb cold make the case for an even colder period yet to come.

TW

we broke bunches of record lows and even tied our all time record low of -4...we also probably spent more time in the single digits in that week than we have the entire decade ( or two even) prior to that week.....ironically we actually went above freezing barely for 4-5 hrs the day it snowed so we didnt get the consecutive hr record everyone else got.