WarmNose Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Close but no cigar. Fab Feb looking mischievous already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Looks like we are going to have a lull in winter weather through the end of the month. I'm not saying we'll have a torch, but above normal temps are likely. This will be a 10-15 day reprieve from the crazy cold we have had. I DO think we'll get back to below normal after the 1st week in Feb through the end of next month. I'm fairly confident we'll have more winter storms to watch during that period, as well. This winter is FAR from over for the southeast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 10 minutes ago, GreensboroWx said: Looks like we are going to have a lull in winter weather through the end of the month. I'm not saying we'll have a torch, but above normal temps are likely. This will be a 10-15 day reprieve from the crazy cold we have had. I DO think we'll get back to below normal after the 1st week in Feb through the end of next month. I'm fairly confident we'll have more winter storms to watch during that period, as well. This winter is FAR from over for the southeast.... Agreed. You can already see some hints of it. Most of the indexes we track seem to be moving favorably in the LR: AO, NAO, EPO all appear to descend toward the end of their projections, while the PNA looks to head up. The MJO is making its way around the horn (or depending on the model, taking a shortcut through the COD) toward the more favorable phases. The CFS continues to look pretty good for Feb, and I'm hearing pretty good things about the latest run of the Weeklies. Plus, there is at least some ongoing assault on the Strat PV. While a unicorn in and of itself, it certainly doesn't hurt to have that happening concurrently. In the meantime, the upper level flow isn't conducive to extreme torching or very cold outbreaks. But, it looks like we keep some very cold air on our side of the globe, which is good. If it's nearby, it's a lot easier to get transported into the area vs. having to build up in the source region. We may even have an event during this period to track, for at least some portion of the area (western zones are favored, IMO). Interesting winter for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 CLT is on pace for the fourth coldest january ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 I welcome the one to two week break from continual model watching. If things go well in February great, if not, then it's been a fabulous winter anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 She's trending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Well when the 2 week thaw turns into 3-4 weeks, it's still been a wonderful , wonderful winter! Fab Feb incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 1 hour ago, GreensboroWx said: Looks like we are going to have a lull in winter weather through the end of the month. I'm not saying we'll have a torch, but above normal temps are likely. This will be a 10-15 day reprieve from the crazy cold we have had. I DO think we'll get back to below normal after the 1st week in Feb through the end of next month. I'm fairly confident we'll have more winter storms to watch during that period, as well. This winter is FAR from over for the southeast.... I love the cold and snow but Im looking forward to a small break. This has been a rather exhausting winter in terms of how much time and energy spent tracking storms...and it's only mid January. Not that I'm complaining 1 hour ago, Queencitywx said: CLT is on pace for the fourth coldest january ever. Incredible stretch of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 I perfectly content with wall to wall cold and snow chances. That's what winter is for -- not for two week breaks or January thaws or laying down preemergent! We can rest from April till November. Come on guys! It's go time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Winter to date... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Temperature Departures for Dec and Jan to date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 WxUSAF Moderator Meteorologist 14,309 posts Location:Columbia, MD Report post Posted 8 minutes ago By the way, a shutdown is a great sign for a rocking end of winter. 13-14 and 95-96 become top analogs. Better prep those shovels and snowblowers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: WxUSAF Moderator Meteorologist 14,309 posts Location:Columbia, MD Report post Posted 8 minutes ago By the way, a shutdown is a great sign for a rocking end of winter. 13-14 and 95-96 become top analogs. Better prep those shovels and snowblowers. What's good for Mid Atlantic, is 99% of the time, not good for us. Don't remember 13/14 that well for us, but 95/96 was done for us after mid Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: What's good for Mid Atlantic, is 99% of the time, not good for us. Don't remember 13/14 that well for us, but 95/96 was done for us after mid Jan Not for me. Both winters had great Febs here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 14 was the 7th coldest January for Charlotte in 136 years. Also the last good snow I got. It started snowing about an hour before I headed home. A 30 min drive home and this is what the roads looked like just before my neighborhood. Had it not sleeted the last few hours it would have been an amazing storm. So if we can repeat that February this will be one of my best winters ever here. Poor Burrel snow hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 27 minutes ago, CentralNC said: Not for me. Both winters had great Febs here. We had this in Feb 96 (not a big storm but still nice): Then in Feb 2013 we had this (also a couple if ice events, and some storms into March): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 JB all over the hammer coming down FEB. He's making a great case. HAve to agree with him. RDU will have BN Nov,Dec,Jan in the bag. Can they score the royal flush and get Feb BN and score 1 more storm? Winter would go down as one of the all time greats for coming as close as you can wall to wall cold and above seasonal avg snowfall. Trick is first few days of Feb not going insane AN. You only have 28 days, but their avg daily highs start creeping up so it's easier to get much BN temps. Loving riding around and seeing white everywhere. Anyone wishing for a short thaw is crazy. Your gonna get 6+ months of all the thawing you want 90 over 70 DP style before long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 So we all agree that we're moving into a warm period. But even during warm periods, in the middle of winter, we can get a quick hitting event if the stars are aligned. Below is the day 10 CMC. It would just take a little more push or strength from the high to turn this into a small ice event. **again not saying this 10 day event will occur but we can't go to sleep during these next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, FallsLake said: So we all agree that we're moving into a warm period. But even during warm periods, in the middle of winter, we can get a quick hitting event if the stars are aligned. Below is the day 10 CMC. It would just take a little more push or strength from the high to turn this into a small ice event. **again not saying this 10 day event will occur but we can't go to sleep during these next two weeks. Meh, bet the SE trend streak, I guess!? I just hear the echoing of people saying a week or so ago, that the next 15 days can't produce, looks like doo doo, deleting accounts , so on so forth, just had one of the biggest board wide events in years. So if they can be off that much about the suckiness, then the greatness people are waiting for, could bust just as hard!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: What's good for Mid Atlantic, is 99% of the time, not good for us. Don't remember 13/14 that well for us, but 95/96 was done for us after mid Jan You gotta be thinking about wrong year, Feb 96 was awesome. Several small snows, ice storm, and some mega cold. That was the last time I recorded below zero reading IMBY (-1 in Dacusville) . Interestingly, we also had a short livrd warm front that set all time Feb high of 82 at GSP same month, but that was an anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 I dont remember Feb 1996 being notable when I was growing up but thats probably because the 96 blizzard was so awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: I dont remember Feb 1996 being notable when I was growing up but thats probably because the 96 blizzard was so awesome. For me on Groundhog day big ice storm followed by record cold for several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Did the euro just run earlier than normal? Hr 240 is already out on tropical tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Did the euro just run earlier than normal? Hr 240 is already out on tropical tidbits. Yep, looks like it. D10. Winter storm inbound. What a winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 15 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yep, looks like it. D10. Winter storm inbound. What a winter! That screams rain to me, plus the warm up!? Buffet is closed until further notice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RAH_MET Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 9 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: That screams rain to me, plus the warm up!? Buffet is closed until further notice! Better get the sneeze guard installed. It'll make its own cold air! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Gotta love the Gainesville snow love on that call map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 KATL is -8 for January through the 18th. 35.0 average. Wondering how that ranks all time for ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 31 minutes ago, RAH_MET said: Any way you can shift that 8-12 inch line about 50 miles East?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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