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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95

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42 minutes ago, packbacker said:

GEFS just won't quit...

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Was noticing this trend too Pack.  It's like a 3 step process.  Step 1 - strong low emerges off E Asia and moves northeast.  Step 2: -EPO ridge builds thru Alaska / W Canada.  Step 3 - cold air plunges south into S Canada and the U.S.  But it's like the models play catchup a lot with Step 3.  When you start to see step 1 on the modeling (the strong low emerging off E Asia), it's a good sign that Step 3 will occur even if the models aren't currently showing it - I guess Step 3 is farther out in time on the model, and it's more difficult for the model to render it that far out in time.

HM (Anthony M) says no torch coming for January.  If you are interested in long range forecasting and you don't follow him, you should.  He's the best there is IMO at producing long range forecast ideas that go beyond model interpretation.

 

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19 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

6z GFS sets up a typical la Nina pattern after the first week of January. Looks like cold shots, warm up with lake cutters, and then cold again. This is where we really need the help of the NAO.

 

Its almost certainly just trying to break the pattern down too early.  The EPS really has looked nothing like that aside from one system that may cut or semi-cut during the brief moderation

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32 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Its almost certainly just trying to break the pattern down too early.  The EPS really has looked nothing like that aside from one system that may cut or semi-cut during the brief moderation

I remember a few years back we saw the models keep showing warm ups in the LR, but the EPO totally dominated the pattern and it kept us cold. The models would just keep pushing the warm up back. **Ironically opposite of what we're use to where the models keep pushing our cold back.    

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23 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

I remember a few years back we saw the models keep showing warm ups in the LR, but the EPO totally dominated the pattern and it kept us cold. The models would just keep pushing the warm up back. **Ironically opposite of what we're use to where the models keep pushing our cold back.    

I was just thinking the same thing, what year was that and you are right, it is ironically opposite of what we usually see, where the cold is always in the LR and keeps getting pushed back. I know here in the Nashville area, the record of consecutive days below 32 is 9, back from the late 1800's, we should come close to that after today, we are not projected to break 32 until at least next Saturday. Hopefully the utilities are up to the stress of sustained cold.

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3 hours ago, FallsLake said:

I remember a few years back we saw the models keep showing warm ups in the LR, but the EPO totally dominated the pattern and it kept us cold. The models would just keep pushing the warm up back. **Ironically opposite of what we're use to where the models keep pushing our cold back.    

2013-2014, I think.  It was pretty cold from late January through mid/late March.

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HM (I'm paraphrasing here) basically said on Twitter yesterday that the N PAC pattern looks to remain solid for the foreseeable future and if you think the overall large scale pattern will break down, you're probably gonna be wrong. 

@antmasiello "If you are expecting the North Pacific pattern to flip next month or take on some kind of 2012-like look, you're going to be disappointed. It's not happening."

"The Siberian stationary wave system and MQI should prevent a torch scenario. This doesn't mean zero periods of warmth or SE ridge. AAM propagation is one wildcard as well as any intraseasonal Indo pulse. But background state should limit their dominance... Gulp."

"One crazier scenario is that the IO forcing-->N Pac circulation lock, creates a looping RMM, weaker Indo response and right back to dual Pac mode forcing. If that occurs, more significant Arctic shots would be on the way next month after current one settles."

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