mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Our 360 GFS snowstorm is gone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Ive noticed in this La Nina- Aleutian ridge/-PNA is overdone or completely wrong on models day7+. Arctic blocking is the strongest tendency right now, and these Pacific ridges get bunched up near Scandinavia/Bering Straight/Alaska. There is also a reverse wave of the North Pacific High, for whatever reason. But this is a cold pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 any thoughts on next Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, drfranklin said: any thoughts on next Thursday? Miller A setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Need at least one other global model to show something similar before I give it a second thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Need at least one other global model to show something similar before I give it a second thought. thanks, I'm new at this - I will also check the Canadian/European models this evening - of course, will also look for any consistency at 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 31 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Need at least one other global model to show something similar before I give it a second thought. The European is similar but its suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 Yes, noticed it as well. It's on the "we'll wait and see" list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 It's on the MJO phase 4-5 , so it can't happen list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: It's on the MJO phase 4-5 , so it can't happen list We need to be in 1,7 or 8 right ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 GFS showing it has no clue for next week. two runs with a gulf low, but with extreme differences at 5h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 GFS shows two possible storms... a pseudo Miller A setup (IF the cold air drops further south) on the 25th-26th, and another a few days later on the 29th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 Time will tell..... NWSCPCVerified account @NWSCPC 3m3 minutes ago February is forecast to be warmer than usual for the Four Corners region, along the southern tier, and up the east coast, while below-normal temperatures are likely for the Pacific Northwest through Northern Rockies. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/ … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, Solak said: Time will tell..... NWSCPCVerified account @NWSCPC 3m3 minutes ago February is forecast to be warmer than usual for the Four Corners region, along the southern tier, and up the east coast, while below-normal temperatures are likely for the Pacific Northwest through Northern Rockies. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/ … I don’t know, they have been dead wrong so far... I think all winter will tend to stay at/or BN, with brief periods of warm ups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 56 minutes ago, Solak said: Time will tell..... NWSCPCVerified account @NWSCPC 3m3 minutes ago February is forecast to be warmer than usual for the Four Corners region, along the southern tier, and up the east coast, while below-normal temperatures are likely for the Pacific Northwest through Northern Rockies. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/ … I honestly wouldn't mind a warm up. We've been dealing with snow, ice and cold in the MTNS since late October. Give me a warm Feb to get the boat and camper in order before Spring fishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 1 hour ago, Solak said: Time will tell..... NWSCPCVerified account @NWSCPC 3m3 minutes ago February is forecast to be warmer than usual for the Four Corners region, along the southern tier, and up the east coast, while below-normal temperatures are likely for the Pacific Northwest through Northern Rockies. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/ … They just use climo, that's a Feb Niña map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 Time will tell.....NWSCPCVerified account @NWSCPC 3m3 minutes ago February is forecast to be warmer than usual for the Four Corners region, along the southern tier, and up the east coast, while below-normal temperatures are likely for the Pacific Northwest through Northern Rockies. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/ … Should be interesting to see come March. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 The 25th event still has legs on GFS. Granted it's standing on one leg and the other leg is a termite-ridden , wooden peg leg, but it's there, don't worry about temps, it'll make its own cold air and NW trend, yadda, yadda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 Considering our warmups have been pushed back and muted and we saw the GFS performance the last few days, then next week is certainly worth keeping an eye on. HP over the lakes and LP off the southeast coast. It makes more sense than the one we just had. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: Considering our warmups have been pushed back and muted and we saw the GFS performance the last few days, then next week is certainly worth keeping an eye on. HP over the lakes and LP off the southeast coast. It makes more sense than the one we just had. TW This could work: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 The MJO pulse that was depicted so strongly, and was supposed to drive the thaw looks to be weakening around five days from now and to be headed into the COD, according to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 ICON looks like the GFS, CMC trended that way.. ukmo has a somewhat similar look at 144hrs. There's at least something to monitor in this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 5 minutes ago, Southern Track said: The MJO pulse that was depicted so strongly, and was supposed to drive the thaw looks to be weakening around five days from now and to be headed into the COD, according to the GFS. That's good news, COD is ok, as long as it's on the left side, I believe.? But JB said next 20 days torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 10 minutes ago, FallsLake said: This could work: That transient high pressure says otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 1 minute ago, WarmNose said: That transient high pressure says otherwise Huh? No idea what the temps are, but that surface map ain’t a bad look! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Huh? No idea what the temps are, but that surface map ain’t a bad look! Actually you're right. Yesterday's run had that HP jumping al over the place. Not so much at 12z edit: although I'm not sure a 1036 north of the lakes will get it done around here. But then again, it's the GFS outside of 160 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: That's good news, COD is ok, as long as it's on the left side, I believe.? But JB said next 20 days torch. JB is probably following the Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Actually you're right. Yesterday's run had that HP jumping al over the place. Not so much at 12z What's the 84 hour NAM say?? Trends.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Actually you're right. Yesterday's run had that HP jumping al over the place. Not so much at 12z edit: although I'm not sure a 1036 north of the lakes will get it done around here. But then again, it's the GFS outside of 160 Overall, it seems like it will be too warm, but it’s worth keeping an eye on. Would like the high a bit stronger with more cold air in SE Canada, but at least it could be a possibility for the mountains into VA, if the GFS is too suppressed here, which it likely is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 Euro goes BOOM at the end of the run. Severe storms flying out of the gulf. Welcome to the jungle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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