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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95

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Ive noticed in this La Nina- Aleutian ridge/-PNA is overdone or completely wrong on models day7+. Arctic blocking is the strongest tendency right now, and these Pacific ridges get bunched up near Scandinavia/Bering Straight/Alaska. There is also a reverse wave of the North Pacific High, for whatever reason. But this is a cold pattern. 

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Time will tell.....

NWSCPCVerified account @NWSCPC 3m3 minutes ago

 
 

February is forecast to be warmer than usual for the Four Corners region, along the southern tier, and up the east coast, while below-normal temperatures are likely for the Pacific Northwest through Northern Rockies. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/ 

DT1Cr-AX4AA2CRr.jpg
DT1Cr-MW0AEfaXf.jpg
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3 minutes ago, Solak said:

Time will tell.....

NWSCPCVerified account @NWSCPC 3m3 minutes ago

 
 

February is forecast to be warmer than usual for the Four Corners region, along the southern tier, and up the east coast, while below-normal temperatures are likely for the Pacific Northwest through Northern Rockies. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/ 

DT1Cr-AX4AA2CRr.jpg
DT1Cr-MW0AEfaXf.jpg

I don’t know, they have been dead wrong so far...

I think all winter will tend to stay at/or BN, with brief periods of warm ups

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56 minutes ago, Solak said:

Time will tell.....

NWSCPCVerified account @NWSCPC 3m3 minutes ago

 
 

February is forecast to be warmer than usual for the Four Corners region, along the southern tier, and up the east coast, while below-normal temperatures are likely for the Pacific Northwest through Northern Rockies. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/ 

DT1Cr-AX4AA2CRr.jpg
DT1Cr-MW0AEfaXf.jpg

I honestly wouldn't mind a warm up. We've been dealing with snow, ice and cold in the MTNS since late October. Give me a warm Feb to get the boat and camper in order before Spring fishing.

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1 hour ago, Solak said:

Time will tell.....

NWSCPCVerified account @NWSCPC 3m3 minutes ago

 
 

February is forecast to be warmer than usual for the Four Corners region, along the southern tier, and up the east coast, while below-normal temperatures are likely for the Pacific Northwest through Northern Rockies. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/ 

DT1Cr-AX4AA2CRr.jpg
DT1Cr-MW0AEfaXf.jpg

They just use climo, that's a Feb Niña map

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Time will tell.....
NWSCPC‏Verified account @NWSCPC 3m3 minutes ago
   

February is forecast to be warmer than usual for the Four Corners region, along the southern tier, and up the east coast, while below-normal temperatures are likely for the Pacific Northwest through Northern Rockies. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/ …

DT1Cr-AX4AA2CRr.jpg&key=242f5161fe744fa636febe1841c4998dacc67ebeefb7b73bf526ac77551cacfbDT1Cr-MW0AEfaXf.jpg&key=dc2fca5d3dd1076566ce0af5d8338a08967920b8740c413e570f229a4f46fceb

Should be interesting to see come March.


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5 minutes ago, Southern Track said:

The MJO pulse that was depicted so strongly, and was supposed to drive the thaw looks to be weakening around five days from now and to be headed into the COD, according to the GFS.

 

GFS MJO index ensemble plume

That's good news, COD is ok, as long as it's on the left side, I believe.? But JB said next 20 days torch. :(

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3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Huh?  No idea what the temps are, but that surface map ain’t a bad look!

Actually you're right. Yesterday's run had that HP jumping al over the place. Not so much at 12z

edit: although I'm not sure a 1036 north of the lakes will get it done around here. But then again, it's the GFS outside of 160

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2 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Actually you're right. Yesterday's run had that HP jumping al over the place. Not so much at 12z

edit: although I'm not sure a 1036 north of the lakes will get it done around here. But then again, it's the GFS outside of 160

Overall, it seems like it will be too warm, but it’s worth keeping an eye on.  Would like the high a bit stronger with more cold air in SE Canada, but at least it could be a possibility for the mountains into VA, if the GFS is too suppressed here, which it likely is.

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