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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95

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this pattern has become hostile, very hostile to any icing events, mostly dry cold to warm rain with little snow sploosh for the mtns in between the transitions. Need the pattern to break down unfortunately and start over without the artic source and clipper front moisture redevelop BS.bare with me I believe there is still plenty of winter left feb and March 

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5 hours ago, Red1976Red said:

this pattern has become hostile, very hostile to any icing events, mostly dry cold to warm rain with little snow sploosh for the mtns in between the transitions. Need the pattern to break down unfortunately and start over without the artic source and clipper front moisture redevelop BS.bare with me I believe there is still plenty of winter left feb and March 

No, I'll keep the pattern that we have been seeing this winter and take my chances. You must have cold air first... If this suppressed pattern breaks down, we are done with winter. This is a good pattern for an amped up miller A to ride the coast and dump on us. You must remember, this is a La-nina winter and they are torches without a pattern like this. You will be praying for suppression come Feb and March.

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7 hours ago, WarmNose said:

Time to break out the sunscreen. At least the wedge gives us a fighting chance at staying BN for the month 

image.png

It is a locked gurantee RDU and every other town in NC ends up BN for January. It can run 10 above normal the last 10 days of the month and it's still a slam dunk BN month.

Currently Jan is is in the top 2 all time coldest on record for RDU to put things in perspective

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15 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

A long ways out, but it wouldn't surprise me to have more shots at storms this month. This reminds me a lot of Jan 2000 when we had a few threats and some small snow storms during the month, some warm ups, and then the big one at the end of January.

If nothing else there are some really pretty colors to look at. The end of the month GFS clown is something Picasso would be proud of. If only.....

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Indices look better today:

AO - Looks to go strongly negative (good)

PNA - Looks to drop negative but go back positive in the LR (OK)

NAO - Looks to go neutral in the LR (great because I don't think it can go negative in the winter anymore) 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

EPO - Going slightly positive (not good)

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41 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Indices look better today:

AO - Looks to go strongly negative (good)

PNA - Looks to drop negative but go back positive in the LR (OK)

NAO - Looks to go neutral in the LR (great because I don't think it can go negative in the winter anymore) 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

EPO - Going slightly positive (not good)

Where do you get info about the EPO?  There is nothing about it on the CPC teleconnection page

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