mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Where'd the cold go? I'm above normal by Friday ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Where'd the cold go? I'm above normal by Friday ? Don't worry, the LR warmth is just a mirage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 this pattern has become hostile, very hostile to any icing events, mostly dry cold to warm rain with little snow sploosh for the mtns in between the transitions. Need the pattern to break down unfortunately and start over without the artic source and clipper front moisture redevelop BS.bare with me I believe there is still plenty of winter left feb and March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 5 hours ago, Red1976Red said: this pattern has become hostile, very hostile to any icing events, mostly dry cold to warm rain with little snow sploosh for the mtns in between the transitions. Need the pattern to break down unfortunately and start over without the artic source and clipper front moisture redevelop BS.bare with me I believe there is still plenty of winter left feb and March No, I'll keep the pattern that we have been seeing this winter and take my chances. You must have cold air first... If this suppressed pattern breaks down, we are done with winter. This is a good pattern for an amped up miller A to ride the coast and dump on us. You must remember, this is a La-nina winter and they are torches without a pattern like this. You will be praying for suppression come Feb and March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 After the Wednesday fail system, no wintry precip on the entire run of 6z GFS ! Winning winter continues! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Time to break out the sunscreen. At least the wedge gives us a fighting chance at staying BN for the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Time to break out the sunscreen. At least the wedge gives us a fighting chance at staying BN for the month Pack? Is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: After the Wednesday fail system, no wintry precip on the entire run of 6z GFS ! Winning winter continues! Don't call "fail" just yet my friend and don't trust the LR. This isn't our typical winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 When it does warm up it seriously lasts about 1 day and its gone lol. Nothing to see on the long range GFS, its likely overdoing everything this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 GFS crush job @ 372 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: GFS crush job @ 372 Which analog is best? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 18 minutes ago, No snow for you said: Which analog is best? Jan 88, always! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 7 hours ago, WarmNose said: Time to break out the sunscreen. At least the wedge gives us a fighting chance at staying BN for the month It is a locked gurantee RDU and every other town in NC ends up BN for January. It can run 10 above normal the last 10 days of the month and it's still a slam dunk BN month. Currently Jan is is in the top 2 all time coldest on record for RDU to put things in perspective Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snovary said: The wedge survives and there's one right behind that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 A long ways out, but it wouldn't surprise me to have more shots at storms this month. This reminds me a lot of Jan 2000 when we had a few threats and some small snow storms during the month, some warm ups, and then the big one at the end of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 15 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: A long ways out, but it wouldn't surprise me to have more shots at storms this month. This reminds me a lot of Jan 2000 when we had a few threats and some small snow storms during the month, some warm ups, and then the big one at the end of January. If nothing else there are some really pretty colors to look at. The end of the month GFS clown is something Picasso would be proud of. If only..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Its very telling when we have a plus NAO and AO is plus but we are in the freezer. The PNA is fixing to go negative for a bit so of course things will warm but then we reload with a great cold pattern again I think going into February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Book it Danno!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 This is the one. Start the thread, CR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Justicebork said: This is the one. Start the thread, CR. The thread for Wednesday has already been made Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 hour ago, Justicebork said: This is the one. Start the thread, CR. Look at that high to the north! Mmm mmm mmmm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 48 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Look at that high to the north! Mmm mmm mmmm! Strong but not too strong for suppression. I’m all in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Indices look better today: AO - Looks to go strongly negative (good) PNA - Looks to drop negative but go back positive in the LR (OK) NAO - Looks to go neutral in the LR (great because I don't think it can go negative in the winter anymore) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml EPO - Going slightly positive (not good) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 41 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Indices look better today: AO - Looks to go strongly negative (good) PNA - Looks to drop negative but go back positive in the LR (OK) NAO - Looks to go neutral in the LR (great because I don't think it can go negative in the winter anymore) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml EPO - Going slightly positive (not good) Where do you get info about the EPO? There is nothing about it on the CPC teleconnection page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 7 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said: The thread for Wednesday has already been made He was joking about starting a thread for the 384 hour GFS fantasy storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Where do you get info about the EPO? There is nothing about it on the CPC teleconnection page https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html Thanks. I find it odd that the CPC lists AO/NAO/PNA but not EPO, while the NOAA page lists NAO/PNA/EPO but not AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 By the way, did anyone else notice the excruciatingly tiny -NAO conditions predicted starting Jan 22. Bring on the blocking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 EPO will kill us, guaranteed. It's all that's been saving us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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