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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95

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1 hour ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Shortwave is trending slower(blocking) and digging more southwest.

More people have a chance if that trend continues.

Agree, those are the trends to root for H5. Also should be some killer ratios with this event, so keep that in mind, not out of the question to get 15 to 1 or better espeacilly north of i 40. Just need it to keep digging on future runs and we should all be happy by this time next week. .25qpf with 15 to 1 ratios is 4 inches. Not to hard or extreme a scenerio to root for.

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The 12z GFS depiction of a snow storm over the NC to VA makes sense to me.  I take note when the GFS holds energy back, because its a model that likes to push things forward in the medium and long-range (I'm not sure if this bias has been corrected).  This creates enough time for the upper level low to close off in the Southeast.  EURO and GGEM has shown this solution. 

Anyway plenty of cold air available to produce snowfall all the way to the coast.  As has been the case for the last few weeks, plenty of tropical moisture available in the Atlantic.  This moisture pocket, and associated warm air, just keeps sticking around, will allow for a larger temperature gradient to develop.  We saw it with the Bomb storm, were seeing it today, and the models continue to push this tropical air mass towards the southeast.  Even here in Hollywood, FL, we experienced this temperature gradient and the prevalent tropical moisture pushing back in from the Bahamas and Florida Straights (an area where pretty strong LPs and boundaries have formed within the last few weeks). 

Meanwhile, there's plenty of entertainment weather-wise over the next two weeks, and plenty of interesting questions.  We have crazy anomalies in Canada next Monday.  0c line pushes to the Arctic Ocean, and 2-meter temperatures in the NW Territory push into the 2-5.  A couple more cold fronts.  We'll see if it results in any snowy possibilities.  Additionally, GFS and and a few other runs of other models seem to present the possibility of a subtropical system forming at various time frames.  I can see it happening.  But overall, the main question is how long can cold air keep plunging this far South?  Eventually, these cold air masses are going to need to recharge.  If positive anomalies continue to form over the North Pole, can these fronts continue to push extreme temperatures into Siberia, and consequently, the Eastern United States. 

End of Verbal Vomit.

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1 hour ago, Red1976Red said:

Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi

32 minutes ago

Said Wednesday I like looks of southern and eastern threat next week, May snow somewhere on the gulf coast for the 3rd time this winter Pattern with max coming thru Ohio valley big deal. Posting on http://weatherbell.com right now

The winter of 2017/2018 already has made some great history from a winter lovers perspective across the SE. Saw a post reading through everything and I dont want to rehash/document all the events up until this point. I just want to call attention to the increasing possibility that this winter could end up being one we reference back to for years to come. All we need is 1 to 2 more decent hits in the right spot and just about everyone on this board will end up above to much above normal climo wise for snowfall. Couple that with the cold(guranteed BN for RDU (Nov,Dec,Jan) we start getting into the wowza territory. Im rooting for FEB and March to end up BN. I would never in my lifetime thought Id see RDU run BN Nov-March no matter what the pattern. Just food for thought and definitely putting the cart before the hoarse here, but its doable no doubt.

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