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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95

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RAH still mentioning the possibility. Stating only flurries right now; but that should be expected with the uncertainty and the type of system.

A strong clipper low will meanwhile have migrated to the Great Lakes
by Mon morning, where it will occlude through Tue. Subsequent
secondary/coastal
cyclogenesis is then expected along the middle
Atlantic and New England coast through the middle of the week, as
the parent
upr trough amplifies across the Appalachians and middle
Atlantic states. Any coastal
cyclogenesis is likely to be initially
slow/weak, owing to the presence of fast, strongly
meridional flow
downstream of the trough, at least until the trough lifts across
about 40N, where the presence of a strong/blocking positive
height
anomaly over the N. Atlantic will provide room for flow
amplification.

Nonetheless, that same fast
flow aloft, and embedded jet
streaks/upper front will favor some jet-induced precipitation from
mid level cloud bases over the middle Atlantic states late Tue-early
Wed. Given large spread in guidance, and the probable presence of a
relatively deep, dry sub-
cloud layer, will maintain continuity with
the previous dry forecast. However, portions of cntl
NC may indeed
see at least a few sprinkles or flurries with the passage of the
upr
trough and related reinforcing Arctic cold front during that time;
and small
PoP may be introduced in subsequent forecasts.
 

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10 minutes ago, Poimen said:

Well... the 6Z NAVGEM has a similar solution at 120, showing a swath of modest precip over the Carolinas as the trough axis approaches. Interesting. 

EDIT: more precip at 126 across central/eastern NC as the coastal low forms near the OBX. 

These redevelopment types never do well for me here in the western piedmont.

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7 minutes ago, nchighcountrywx said:

Michael Ventrice (‪@MJVentrice‬)

1/12/18, 08:04

Models are beginning to hint of Greenland blocking towards the end of January into early February. Could partially aid in the development of another exciting winter pattern for the US and Europe if it sticks pic.twitter.com/QFZmFzIbeh

I used to watch JB vids and read his summaries when he was with AccuWeather. If I recall, he always "theorized" that during La Nina's that -NAO's became more likely toward the end of winter into spring.

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5 minutes ago, nchighcountrywx said:

Michael Ventrice (‪@MJVentrice‬)

1/12/18, 08:04

 

Models are beginning to hint of Greenland blocking towards the end of January into early February. Could partially aid in the development of another exciting winter pattern for the US and Europe if it sticks pic.twitter.com/QFZmFzIbeh

 

 

3Zsotcs.jpg

Just looking at the GFS, we never get into an extended warm period. We cycle between warm and cold. Of course there's app/lake cutters but the cold air stays to our NW. So if we can get the blocking, we'll be able to quickly go into a winter storm pattern. 

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