SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: How does La Nada work out for us after a multi year nina? I’m not sure, the sample size is so small. It’s not been good in the northeast though at all. 96-97 (neutral after one year of La Niña), 01-02 and 12-13 are the only real good cases and all were pretty lousy. Some of the more reliable longer term forecast guys out there have theorized solar activity and MJO have a huge influence in those winters because you don’t have an ENSO influence to “buckle the jet.” 01-02 had awful solar an MJO for the US. I think the winter was mostly spent in phases 4-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: I’m not sure, the sample size is so small. It’s not been good in the northeast though at all. 96-97 (neutral after one year of La Niña), 01-02 and 12-13 are the only real good cases and all were pretty lousy. Some of the more reliable longer term forecast guys out there have theorized solar activity and MJO have a huge influence in those winters because you don’t have an ENSO influence to “buckle the jet.” 01-02 had awful solar an MJO for the US. I think the winter was mostly spent in phases 4-5. What is funny is those were all pretty horrible except for one decent event during each season. Otherwise, they were warm years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: What is funny is those were all pretty horrible except for one decent event during each season. Otherwise, they were warm years. The tendency if solar activity is elevated with no ENSO mechanism is usually for zonal flow. For whatever reason it can have a lesser or different effect when it’s elevated when there is pronounced ENSO. It’s sort of like how some MJO phases during El Niño are bad while they are fairly favorable during neutral or La Niña years. I think 1 and 8 can be poor in December El Niño’s but are otherwise usually good phases go us in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Models are spitting out a variety of precip totals for the next couple of days. We really need the rain. Hopefully some of the more higher totals come to fruition for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Euro with a I-95 special in NC 2-4”. Gets 2” almost to ColdRain. Primarily a NS low dropping down, but there is some southern energy that is trying to join in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: Euro with a I-95 special in NC 2-4”. Gets 2” almost to ColdRain. Primarily a NS low dropping down, but there is some southern energy that is trying to join in. The Euro has shown a threat for this time period for several runs now (~4). Hoping it has legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 10 minutes ago, packbacker said: Euro with a I-95 special in NC 2-4”. Gets 2” almost to ColdRain. Primarily a NS low dropping down, but there is some southern energy that is trying to join in. How'd that last coastal pan out for RAH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just now, mackerel_sky said: How'd that last coastal pan out for RAH? We got our biggest snowfall in 3 years.:.officially it was 0.9”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, packbacker said: We got our biggest snowfall in 3 years.:.officially it was 0.9”. You, up to RDU, did better than me. I got 0.5" or so. Still with the way things went, I felt lucky to get that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just now, FallsLake said: You, up to RDU, did better than me. I got 0.5" or so. Still with the way things went, I felt lucky to get that. No complaints...solid event for us. Would happily take a dusting next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGAWx Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 What's the timing for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, PGAWx said: What's the timing for this? Day 5-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 10 minutes ago, packbacker said: No complaints...solid event for us. Would happily take a dusting next week. Maybe we can flurry ourselves to our yearly normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Maybe we can flurry ourselves to our yearly normal. Nope! 14 traces , still equals just a trace! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Hot Dam! That looks like a Pizza Inn buffet chocolate chip pizza right there!They closed our Pizza Inn about five years ago. The closest one to me is in Little Washington... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 23 minutes ago, packbacker said: No complaints...solid event for us. Would happily take a dusting next week. Wow Pack. You been taking snow deprivation therapy!? Well come to think of it, less than an inch is slowly becoming a solid event for central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said: Wow Pack. You been taking snow deprivation therapy!? Well come to think of it, less than an inch is slowly becoming a solid event for central NC. Hah...we have been on a snow diet of late so any little cracker crumb of snow is going to be legit. Last week was nice...I had probably 1.5" and it was all snow, really cold, I actually swept it off my driveway. Give me one more of those and it will be a great winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 52 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said: The Euro has shown a threat for this time period for several runs now (~4). Hoping it has legs. Yep and Its not exactly where we need it to be right now but seeing some things that could really work out for several people on this board. Could get real interesting by late this weekend into next week if tracking a threat is your cup of tea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 12z EPS definitely trended better with the h5 low trying to dig further southwest. Had maybe a dozen members with some snow for eastern NC, though most are light. The control run was a little more beefy then the Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Be nice if the EPS would get some green colors going on tomorrows run. Nice event for the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 At least RAH mentioned the possibility: .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 235 PM Thursday... A rather quiet albeit cold stretch of weather expected during this period, with high pressure predominant at least through the first half of next week. In general, expect afternoon temperatures to top out in the 30s/40s, with the warmest day of the period being Saturday thanks to leftover moisture/cloud cover across the area from the departing area of low pressure. Overnight lows through the middle of next week will remain below freezing area wide, bottoming out in the teens/20s just prior to dawn each morning. Precipitation chances are not plentiful during this stretch, as the forecast area remains just west of the right exit quadrant of theupper level jet. A frontal boundary will move through Tuesday afternoon/evening attempting to carry some light precipitation east of the mountains, but confidence in this occurring is not high. For now, have left off PoPs siding with the drier frontal passage as seen in the GFS solution, but these may need to be increased if guidance trends more toward the ECMWF over the next few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Not buying the EURO it will change big time between now and then. For better or worse. But right now too much in front of it with rain systems to move in and out...wait for the cold to arrive and see the solutions change early next week. May happen with 0z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, FallsLake said: At least RAH mentioned the possibility: .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 235 PM Thursday... A rather quiet albeit cold stretch of weather expected during this period, with high pressure predominant at least through the first half of next week. In general, expect afternoon temperatures to top out in the 30s/40s, with the warmest day of the period being Saturday thanks to leftover moisture/cloud cover across the area from the departing area of low pressure. Overnight lows through the middle of next week will remain below freezing area wide, bottoming out in the teens/20s just prior to dawn each morning. Precipitation chances are not plentiful during this stretch, as the forecast area remains just west of the right exit quadrant of theupper level jet. A frontal boundary will move through Tuesday afternoon/evening attempting to carry some light precipitation east of the mountains, but confidence in this occurring is not high. For now, have left off PoPs siding with the drier frontal passage as seen in the GFS solution, but these may need to be increased if guidance trends more toward the ECMWF over the next few runs. Past few runs the EPS has gotten the surface low a little further SE towards the carolina's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 5 hours ago, packfan98 said: Matthew East is located in Charlotte but forecasts for the Charlotte region and the Triad. His videos will show the pattern and the models for the entire Southeast. He also posts here sometimes as MSUWX. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Gosh another good shot of cold air coming for three or four days and we still can't get a nice storm out of the Gulf, normally its the cold we have trouble with and now its the moisture when its cold, talk about threading a needle isn't the word for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Can we get this to dig down to TX then swing through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: Can we get this to dig down to TX then swing through If we were in a Niño and the NS wasn't screwing everything up then yeah, probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Not with that western ridge positioning. Not seeing too much potential here personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 3 hours ago, tramadoc said: They closed our Pizza Inn about five years ago. The closest one to me is in Little Washington... My wife and sister in law both worked at that Pizza Inn back around 1988 I think. That thing has been there as long as the other two staples in Little Washington, Piggly Wiggly and King Chicken! Euro gonna steal sleep from the board tonight. Here we go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 26 minutes ago, packbacker said: Can we get this to dig down to TX then swing through Somehow it'll blow up and crush NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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