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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95

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1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

Euro had some kind of mini slop event for my area, around the 20th! Right as temps are on the upswing! :(

 

Just now, mackerel_sky said:

That ULL pack showed, might be the polar vortex, as cold as its going to be next week!

I think we get one more slime chance and then we'll have to wait until February. Even JB is talking warm for the later part of the month; and when he talks warm he's usually right.  

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10 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

 

I think we get one more slime chance and then we'll have to wait until February. Even JB is talking warm for the later part of the month; and when he talks warm he's usually right.  

Sat through end of next week looks really cold.  Hopefully it’s just a couple of weeks of AN.  

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12 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

 

I think we get one more slime chance and then we'll have to wait until February. Even JB is talking warm for the later part of the month; and when he talks warm he's usually right.  

Well, JB was talking torch all winter in Oct/Nov for his winter forecast, but I believe he flipped to cold last minute in Dec, as he could already see it. So , he's not as great as everyone thinks

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Just now, mackerel_sky said:

Well, JB was talking torch all winter in Oct/Nov for his winter forecast, but I believe he flipped to cold last minute in Dec, as he could already see it. So , he's not as great as everyone thinks

I don't think anyone forecasted a record breaking cold wave, several rare tornadoes in November, the two major winter events in the S/E so far, or how much rain we are about to see in January. Including JB, government agencies, none are doing a superior job. The only thing I recall is above normal and dry all winter. 

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NWSCPCVerified account @NWSCPC 7m7 minutes ago

 
 

The #LaNina advisory continues, as CPC/@climatesociety forecasters anticipate La Niña is likely (~85-95%) through Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral expected during the spring. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml DTQ8VbrWsAA2hZj.jpg

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

Well, JB was talking torch all winter in Oct/Nov for his winter forecast, but I believe he flipped to cold last minute in Dec, as he could already see it. So , he's not as great as everyone thinks

Go back and read it. He said SE would be normal to +1, I don't believe that is a torch.  In August he said winter was coming a lot earlier than what most think.  He said again in Oct that from Thanksgiving to Christmas would be colder than last year.  He has been saying since Christmas warm up around latter part of Jan and then cold coming back.  Problem is everybody thinks he predicts their back yard.  He is about patterns.  Enjoy the weather its the only weather you got

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1 hour ago, Solak said:

NWSCPCVerified account @NWSCPC 7m7 minutes ago

 
 

The #LaNina advisory continues, as CPC/@climatesociety forecasters anticipate La Niña is likely (~85-95%) through Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral expected during the spring. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml DTQ8VbrWsAA2hZj.jpg

Please, please bring us a weak Nino next year.  We've GOT to get the southern stream going.  I'm so over the northern stream dominated boo boo.  

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12 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said:

Awesome GFS run if you like cutter after cutter.

The indices are not in our favor. The one good thing to take away from the run is there continues to be cold air available in NA. Once we get some blocking set up (..Maybe 1st of February), we'll be able to tap/use that air for a potential winter storm.

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1 hour ago, SnowNiner said:

Please, please bring us a weak Nino next year.  We've GOT to get the southern stream going.  I'm so over the northern stream dominated boo boo.  

Typically if you’re coming off a multi year La Niña a weak El Niño on the order of 0.2–0.7 won’t do a whole lot with the southern stream.  You usually need to kick into a decent 1.0-1.5.  And history shows that is USUALLY what happens.  57-58, 72-73, 76-77, 86-87, 02-03, 09-10 all came off multi year La Niñas and the two which could be modeled (02-03 09-10) showed up well in advance on the climate models.  My hunch is if we don’t start seeing a pronounced move by April in the ENSO models to a 1-1.5 by next winter then you can probably assume we go closer to neutral as when you’re in a negative PDO phase or on your way into one which may be more the case now, the ENSO models usually verify too high on predicted El Niño’s beyond 6 months 

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7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Typically if you’re coming off a multi year La Niña a weak El Niño on the order of 0.2–0.7 won’t do a whole lot with the southern stream.  You usually need to kick into a decent 1.0-1.5.  And history shows that is USUALLY what happens.  57-58, 72-73, 76-77, 86-87, 02-03, 09-10 all came off multi year La Niñas and the two which could be modeled (02-03 09-10) showed up well in advance on the climate models.  My hunch is if we don’t start seeing a pronounced move by April in the ENSO models to a 1-1.5 by next winter then you can probably assume we go closer to neutral as when you’re in a negative PDO phase or on your way into one which may be more the case now, the ENSO models usually verify too high on predicted El Niño’s beyond 6 months 

How does La Nada work out for us after a multi year nina?

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