Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

[Upstate Tiger]

Some have stated that we don't see snow in the SE when there is extreme cold.  That is not entirely true.  In the current case, the trough axis is a little too far east.  Only a small change in the downstream pattern would change the fortunes of many on this board.  In the meantime, I offer you this historical perspective regarding extreme cold and snow in the SE:

Coldest month on record at GSP was January 1977; average temp. was 30.7 degrees F; measurable snow was recorded on the 3rd, 9th and 24th; Freezing rain on the 14th; coldest week was the famous cold snap of the 16th, 17th and 18th; the high temperature recorded for the entire month was 50 F and it occurred briefly on one day; Oddly enough no daily low temp records were broken in January of 77!

[cbmclean]

31 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Some have stated that we don't see snow in the SE when there is extreme cold.  That is not entirely true.  In the current case, the trough axis is a little too far east.  Only a small change in the downstream pattern would change the fortunes of many on this board.  In the meantime, I offer you this historical perspective regarding extreme cold and snow in the SE:

Coldest month on record at GSP was January 1977; average temp. was 30.7 degrees F; measurable snow was recorded on the 3rd, 9th and 24th; Freezing rain on the 14th; coldest week was the famous cold snap of the 16th, 17th and 18th; the high temperature recorded for the entire month was 50 F and it occurred briefly on one day; Oddly enough no daily low temp records were broken in January of 77!

I remember coming across the awesome Jan 77 when I was reviewing monthly records for RDU last winter (had to do something to keep my mind off the actual weather).  Mean temp was 26.9 F.  Absolute max was 52 F.  Absolute min was -1 F.  There were six days where the max was at or below 32 F.  Every single day had a min at or below freezing. 

Unfortunately for snowbirds, only had 2.1 inches of snow that month though.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

5 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Some have stated that we don't see snow in the SE when there is extreme cold.  That is not entirely true.  In the current case, the trough axis is a little too far east.  Only a small change in the downstream pattern would change the fortunes of many on this board.  In the meantime, I offer you this historical perspective regarding extreme cold and snow in the SE:

Coldest month on record at GSP was January 1977; average temp. was 30.7 degrees F; measurable snow was recorded on the 3rd, 9th and 24th; Freezing rain on the 14th; coldest week was the famous cold snap of the 16th, 17th and 18th; the high temperature recorded for the entire month was 50 F and it occurred briefly on one day; Oddly enough no daily low temp records were broken in January of 77!

Well, Charlotte did have 2 daily records set in January 1977 that still stand today. Jan 17th of that year saw a record low maximum and a record low minimum of 25 and 5 respectively. Of course the all-time coldest month record still stands.

[FallsLake]

As I said before, in this pattern of suppression we may have to pin our hopes on a clipper. Usually clippers stay just a little too far north for many on this board but with these massive highs and deep troughs we can now score. The last two runs of the GFS show something at ~ day 9. It's definitely too far out to get excited about but I believe this more that a big storm showing 5 days out.

6z GFS (similar to the 0z):

 

[Lookout]

Speaking of 1977...This is pretty crazy.

 

[ncjoaquin]

Going to need all this cold just to get Asheville, Charlotte, and Greenville, SC below normal for the month. Actually, Greenville, SC and Asheville will make it. Charlotte won't make it.

[FallsLake]

looking at the indices and it would signal a continuation of our current pattern:

PNA - Looks to stay positive throughout the LR. Maybe flirting with neutral towards the end.

AO - Looks to be predominantly negative in the LR, ensuring cross polar air into NA

NAO - Positive, which is now normal for us. **this is hurting our chances of a storm ridding up the coast.

EPO - Looks to stay negative

 

LR models (going out 12 days) also indicating a colder than normal LR. But it looks dry. The 6z GFS shows very little precip over the SE. So it looks like our Mongolian cold and dry winter continues. 

[tarheelwx]

It wasn’t long ago everyone wanted the south east ridge to completely disappear.  A little SER would go a long way in bringing some precip to at least a few of us.  

TW

[Upstate Tiger]

46 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

looking at the indices and it would signal a continuation of our current pattern:

PNA - Looks to stay positive throughout the LR. Maybe flirting with neutral towards the end.

AO - Looks to be predominantly negative in the LR, ensuring cross polar air into NA

NAO - Positive, which is now normal for us. **this is hurting our chances of a storm ridding up the coast.

EPO - Looks to stay negative

 

LR models (going out 12 days) also indicating a colder than normal LR. But it looks dry. The 6z GFS shows very little precip over the SE. So it looks like our Mongolian cold and dry winter continues. 

THIS

[Tar Heel Snow]

3 hours ago, FallsLake said:

As I said before, in this pattern of suppression we may have to pin our hopes on a clipper. Usually clippers stay just a little too far north for many on this board but with these massive highs and deep troughs we can now score. The last two runs of the GFS show something at ~ day 9. It's definitely too far out to get excited about but I believe this more that a big storm showing 5 days out.

6z GFS (similar to the 0z):

 

Interesting. I'm still learning a lot of this stuff, so if you could answer this that'd be great, but don't clippers usually not pan out well for us because of the mountains? Or is it something else? Thanks!

[Huriken]

3 hours ago, FallsLake said:

As I said before, in this pattern of suppression we may have to pin our hopes on a clipper. Usually clippers stay just a little too far north for many on this board but with these massive highs and deep troughs we can now score. The last two runs of the GFS show something at ~ day 9. It's definitely too far out to get excited about but I believe this more that a big storm showing 5 days out.

6z GFS (similar to the 0z):

 

Better than nothin', I suppose. Hopefully it doesn't disappear or get squashed!

[FallsLake]

1 minute ago, Tar Heel Snow said:

Interesting. I'm still learning a lot of this stuff, so if you could answer this that'd be great, but don't clippers usually not pan out well for us because of the mountains? Or is it something else? Thanks!

The mountains are definitely our enemy with clippers. For our area (Central / eastern NC), we tend to do better than folks to the south and west of us. Two reasons:

1) Biggest reason is the trajectory of the precipitation over elevated areas to our NW. **draw a line from RDU NW and the elevation of areas through VA and WV are mostly in the 3000 - 4000 range. Draw a line from Charlotte down to Greenville SC NW and you have 5000 - 6000 foot mountains. Basically they have more of a rain (snow) shadow effect.

2) Also for clippers it's just better to be farther north and east because of the traversal of the wave as it goes from NW to SE.   

[Tar Heel Snow]

Just now, FallsLake said:

The mountains are definitely our enemy with clippers. For our area (Central / eastern NC), we tend to do better than folks to the south and west of us. Two reasons:

1) Biggest reason is the trajectory of the precipitation over elevated areas to our NW. **draw a line from RDU NW and the elevation of areas through VA and WV are mostly in the 3000 - 4000 range. Draw a line from Charlotte down to Greenville SC NW and you have 5000 - 6000 foot mountains. Basically they have more of a rain (snow) shadow effect.

2) Also for clippers it's just better to be farther north and east because of the traversal of the wave as it goes from NW to SE.   

Thank you! Makes sense. 

[HKY1894]

Way out in fantasy land on the CMC is a much better look for a storm, could possibly cut or be a miller b but much better movement of the energy way out on the west coast early on, in the southeast we can’t rely on energy dropping into the northwest and digging through the Midwest, Gotta be into Cali and through the southwest. December 8th-9th was more similar to this look than what we’ve seen recently 

[Orangeburgwx]

2 minutes ago, HKY1894 said:

Way out in fantasy land on the CMC is a much better look for a storm, could possibly cut or be a miller b but much better movement of the energy way out on the west coast early on, in the southeast we can’t rely on energy dropping into the northwest and digging through the Midwest, Gotta be into Cali and through the southwest. December 8th-9th was more similar to this look than what we’ve seen recently 

cutter or a Miller A/B hybrid... got the look to go either way or even both

[mackerel_sky]

3 minutes ago, HKY1894 said:

Way out in fantasy land on the CMC is a much better look for a storm, could possibly cut or be a miller b but much better movement of the energy way out on the west coast early on, in the southeast we can’t rely on energy dropping into the northwest and digging through the Midwest, Gotta be into Cali and through the southwest. December 8th-9th was more similar to this look than what we’ve seen recently 

That just screams cutter to me, or atleast rain. Looks like it pumps a ridge in front and no confluence. I know we are getting too much confluence now, but looks non-existant on that map.?

[HKY1894]

1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

That just screams cutter to me, or atleast rain. Looks like it pumps a ridge in front and no confluence. I know we are getting too much confluence now, but looks non-existant on that map.?

Not gonna over analyze it because the gfs has nothing even close to this but that “ridge”you’re seeing is actually the flow backing and that causes overrunning, the surface maps have sleet and ZR in the cad regions with a dammning high in NNE. Basically we want to see the isobars pointed in a north to south orientation rather than the flat east to west orientation we are seeing now. The NAO being neutral to positive isn’t great either but I don’t think it’s physically possible in this decade for that indice to be anything but positive.

[BullCityWx]

That Canadian storm is interesting. It would be in the teens, with still some room for evaporational cooling. You’d do some major damage in a case like that.

[burrel2]

00z EURO appeared to be setting up a winter storm at 240hrs as well... maybe this is the one that pans out as the pattern relaxes.

[jburns]

22 hours ago, cbmclean said:

I remember coming across the awesome Jan 77 when I was reviewing monthly records for RDU last winter (had to do something to keep my mind off the actual weather).  Mean temp was 26.9 F.  Absolute max was 52 F.  Absolute min was -1 F.  There were six days where the max was at or below 32 F.  Every single day had a min at or below freezing. 

Unfortunately for snowbirds, only had 2.1 inches of snow that month though.

I was teaching in Floyd County Va.  We went back to school the first day after Christmas break and that was it for January.  Every time the roads began to clear we got hit again. Even with all the snow, the thing I remember most was the wind.

[HKY1894]

12z euro also has the energy in the southwest in the long range, looks like a big midwestern storm forming though unfortunately, something other than suppression though. 

[griteater]

21 minutes ago, HKY1894 said:

12z euro also has the energy in the southwest in the long range, looks like a big midwestern storm forming though unfortunately, something other than suppression though. 

Combine a SW wave with overperforming NE PV and cold, and who knows.

Speaking of cold, I think we are going to see it continue for a little while at least.  The models continue to show strong lows ejecting off E Asia into the Aleutians.  I would expect to continue to see colder model corrections in the 8-15 day range...we'll see

[griteater]

Here's the upper jet ridge building through Alaska on the GEFS

[BullCityWx]

This year is starting to remind me of that winter a few years ago where the modeling would keep showing warmth coming in the LR and it would continually get muted.

[Jonesing for a chase]

24 minutes ago, HKY1894 said:

12z euro also has the energy in the southwest in the long range, looks like a big midwestern storm forming though unfortunately, something other than suppression though. 

12 Z looks better with 1047 high in SE Canada and low pressure moving across south Texas.  Verbatim a really nice look but it could be the Euro trolling us again

[franklin NCwx]

The epo is saving this winter.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

1 hour ago, franklin NCwx said:

The epo is saving this winter.

Yep, the ski industry is loving life this winter. They really needed an extended period of cold weather after last year.

[packbacker]

GEFS just won't quit...

[mackerel_sky]

18 minutes ago, packbacker said:

GEFS just won't quit...

Might have to put out preemergent in June!

[Cold Rain]

Martin Armstrong did predict a cold winter in the US, which is pretty much in contrast to most winter outlooks.  We’ll see....