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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95

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16 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

When the EPS is like "nah" for the next two weeks for almost everybody: 

 

eps_tsnow_m_conus2_61.png

Well, it's based on Dr. Nah, so wha'd'ja expect? :)

The pattern pretty much stinks.  Maybe we get a surprise...not impossible, I suppose, but it's not a pattern one would intentionally draw if one were to draw up a snowstorm pattern.

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7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Well, it's based on Dr. Nah, so wha'd'ja expect? :)

The pattern pretty much stinks.  Maybe we get a surprise...not impossible, I suppose, but it's not a pattern one would intentionally draw if one were to draw up a snowstorm pattern.

I think we’re definitely going to get cold again but outside of that, it’s a pattern of nope.

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7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Well, it's based on Dr. Nah, so wha'd'ja expect? :)

The pattern pretty much stinks.  Maybe we get a surprise...not impossible, I suppose, but it's not a pattern one would intentionally draw if one were to draw up a snowstorm pattern.

I mean you just had the Carolina crusher pt 2 last week, don't be greedy!

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From RAH:

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Wednesday...

Any leftover moisture should exit the area to the northeast by
Saturday afternoon, allowing for a much quieter, drier, and colder
weather pattern to return across central North Carolina. Expect
below normal temperatures as we head into next week, with high
pressure building into/over the region through Sunday Night. A
reinforcing cold front will push through the Mid-Atlantic by
midweek, keeping colder conditions in place with little chance of
liquid or frozen precipitation on the lee side of the Appalachians
.
Expect highs generally in the upper 30s to mid 40s, with lows at
times falling into the upper teens under partly to mostly clear
skies.

&&
 

DEPRESSING*************************************

 

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Since we are punting for the next ~3 weeks, a look at the big 3 12z ens means at H5.  Unsure if this is still cool or we are holding out for metaphysical accumulations in the upstate this weekend.  

PAC looks like ass, AO should hold slightly neg, NAO around neutral, MJO (http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html) would argue temps avg close to normal throughout the period, with a above normal period thereafter, any real potential being close to Feb 1st and beyond.  I would keep an eye on the 23-24th, doubt the setup is there for the deep south but the MA and NE could cash in if we do in fact get a storm.

GFSensmean.JPG.93466c50debbd9192968279cebafada9.JPGggemensmean.JPG.30aa5fa3d39008f62458b8abaef37551.JPGecmwfensmean.JPG.97ffe973720788dcb3bb94ef77ad36e3.JPG

 

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

There is some cold being modeled next week , colder than the last outbreak, for some areas!

Any more suppression than what we got last week and it will be snowing in Cuba. I'd like a nice 26 - 28 degree snowstorm. This super cold, bone dry air doesn't work for us.

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