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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95

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16 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Don't we need more than the AO? In years past it has seemed we need a +PNA or a -EPO to help keep the pacific at bay. Right now everything is not cooperating except the AO.  

The more of those in our favor the better. There is a correlation of the nao going negative when the ao does.

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46 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Don't we need more than the AO? In years past it has seemed we need a +PNA or a -EPO to help keep the pacific at bay. Right now everything is not cooperating except the AO.  

A -AO can't offset a terrible pac in general. Think Dec 2012. Not sure how you folks fared in 2012-13 but the pac (and nasty AK vortex) flooded North Amercia with Pac air so the only thing the AO displaced was pac maritime air from Canada. lol

The AO has been a fickle pain in the ass lately. We haven't had a classic long lasting blocking episode since 2010-11. It really has been that long. What we really need to hope for is the -AO showing up is a hint that a more typical 30-45 day blocking episode is on the way. The hostile pac is unlikely to hold for weeks on end. If we get a REAL -ao that lasts well into Feb then our sensible wx can turn on a dime. Basically as fast as the pac jet cuts off, the conus can get right back into business. Especially the eastern half. It's a watch and wait game right now for sure. Other than a lucky break during the Mon-Thurs time frame next week, we have a lot of waiting to do before we know where all this could be going. 

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35 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Still not seeing any long lasting torches lasting more than a few days! Havnt checked the 926 hour GFS though!

Open your eyes...it’s not difficult to find.  Take your pick...buffet style.   Get the sunscreen outecmwf-ens_T850a_us_11.png

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_10.png

gem-ens_T2maMean_us_12.png

 

 

 

 

 

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I hear the term "no blocking,no blocking,no blocking" a lot.

Here's what no blocking is,Look at 2011-12 when you have AO,NAO levels running up the yazoo at +2,+3,and +4 for weeks and months.That's no chance at all and getting shutout,that's no blocking.

People obsessed with a raging AO,NAO can't even see a neutral one anymore.Negative states are preferred but a neutral one could and should deliver winter weather too.

 

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17 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

With a perfect High placement I think we can work with the look at 240 :)

I mean yeah, if you want to cherry pick a few 240+ hour red maps, ok! But plenty of cold shots between, so there won't be any 2 week stretches of 20 degree above normal. These straw man heat ups are fading as we speak

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8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I mean yeah, if you want to cherry pick a few 240+ hour red maps, ok! But plenty of cold shots between, so there won't be any 2 week stretches of 20 degree above normal. These straw man heat ups are fading as we speak

The way models have behaved this year, I don't believe anything until I see it falling from the sky.

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1 minute ago, JoshM said:

The way models have behaved this year, I don't believe anything until I see it falling from the sky.

I'm sure we will see verification scores of .90 on the Euro, but it seems like it has been horrible. This has been a strange winter so far. We had the December surprise snowstorm, the incredibly long-lasting cold shot, the east coast blizzard. What's next? Who knows, but I'll bet the models will not get it right either.

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57 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Sounds like a Nina.

 

On this weekend's storm Euro folds to the gfs again with the eastern solution. Grit should add that one too.

<typical nina> Warms up, we get a App or lake cutter, turns cold for a few days, and then repeat cycle. Cold gets bottled up to the NW and we get glancing shots after the front from the low passes. Our average temp ends up above normal because of all the lows pumping in SW winds as they pass to the north and west.

<not typical> The past weeks cold that we experienced; especially in how it was centered over us.

You would think we should see more typical nina type weather from this point forward. If so, we can still hope for a strong CAD event to produce a winter storm. Even though we average above normal temp wise, there will still be very cold air to our north. We just need to get a strong high to anchor itself to the north, then one of those app storms would be forced to become a miller B, and that is when we can score.      

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