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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95

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2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

The 15-17th on the GFS , looks kind of interesting. Showing on Euro as well , I believe! The Memphis Mauler this weekend, will be the appetizer for next week

We've got a strong HP on both sides of the Appleachians. Looks promising IMO 

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19 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

I've always found these maps misleading. They use these dark orange and red colors to give the impression that the word is on fire but the truth is, if that dark red up around Siberia makes it into the lower 48 they'll have to make a new shade of blue to show temperature departure from normal. It's all relative I guess idk

Plus these type of maps highly distort the size of the polar area - the actual polar area on the globe is much smaller

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It's all about timing. I don't look for torch all winter or thaws. I look for chances and we certainly have that with some cold air to work with at times. Seriously just come out of the coldest longest duration cold wave like ever in recent memory and so many mets are focused on torch torch torch. Even after 2 major snow storms bringing some cities will above climo if they even have an average snow. 

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18 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Saw that. 1044 cruising above the storm in the Midwest, and 1044 in the NE! Leaves room to cut, I'm sure

I've heard that one before. GFS shows two big time Arctic highs and someone makes the comment "it can't cut into a pair of 1040+ HP's like that can it?" and 6 days later it does

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1 hour ago, Jonathan said:

Massive 1040+ HP straight down into Cuba. Where have we seen this before? Ninas gonna Nina. Northern stream rules the winter.

With the weakening EPO ridge this is going to track fairly far north if it happens.  This won't be suppressed.  A track somewhat north of the CMC would be a likely scenario

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I am interested in the period later this week for some low top rotating storms slamming into mountains. Not heard much about severe chances? Maybe snow one week after? I bet a lot will be saying just that after a line of potentially severe storms hits Georgia, Tennessee and possibly the Carolinas after dark if they survive. 

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GFS looks unusually wet for the southern Apps. 2-5" this month would blow some of these warm and dry winter forecasts out of the water. 

Forecast Discussion

SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2018 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of the eastern half of the U.S. Thursday and Thursday night, including across parts of the lower and mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and parts of the East Coast and central Appalachians area.

 

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Yep...we flip warm around the 18-20th, couple weeks to reload and early Feb we are back at it...-EPO colder in the east pattern.

After Dec 25th we were AN, then we have almost 4 weeks of solid BN temps, assuming we flip warm end of next week.   A 2 or even 3 week break isn’t all that bad if we can get another 2-3 week window in Feb.

eps_z500a_d5_nh_720.png

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