mrdaddyman Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 hour ago, packbacker said: Pretty much...perfect event would be a 4-6” event. Hangs around for the next day and then 60’s and outside weather the following. I would never survive in the NE. I like tracking, like watching it fall. Then I want life back to normal. I do want to end our sub 10” season drought ASAP. I'm just hoping to end my sub 1" season drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 6 hours ago, packbacker said: It’s coming! I think... Look at that block on the EPS and what’s rolling over from Siberia. We are in a nina...it has to come...or does it It's interesting period we're entering. The warmth this week will be fairly brief but it's going to feel like Hawaii after the last couple weeks. What was originally going to be a brief cool down next week now looks like a 3-4 day window that "could" produce something with a legit Jan air mass. Then it looks like another repeat late next week with another fairly abrupt warm up but ens guidance is already starting to show that will be pretty brief too. While the shuffle happens in the conus it really does look like a legit -ao is going to try to form. Yea, I know...I know....believe it when we see it but this signal is getting kind of strong. It starts inside of 10 days and it's showing up on the ens means way out at the end of their runs. Is this one for real? Let's assume it is for a minute.... My guess is the upcoming -pna/+epo period is going to be short lived and the pac will go back to the base state we've seen all winter so far. At least in some form. Probably not identical to the way we've been in the ice box but favorable for cold in North America in general. Add in a -ao and shorter wavelengths that start showing up as we enter February and there's a reason for cautious optimism. Some winters that hit hard with cold early flip a switch and never come back. Other ones take a break and reload. I was concerned about a long term flip to warm last week but I'm starting to change my mind. I have a hunch by the end of this week we're going to be talking about how good the long range looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Something maybe cooking in Texas at 186 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: Something maybe cooking in Texas at 186 yep had a feeling just looking at hr 144 that we might have a fantasy storm incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Texas is looking pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 What an impossible forecast this is, huge bust likely either way for some, possible for many. Temps all over the place , different air masses, just crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Significant snow in Dallas this run, parts of Louisiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: What an impossible forecast this is, huge bust likely either way for some, possible for many. Temps all over the place , different air masses, just crazy. High books it into the Atlantic before storm arrives! Nitpicking at 9 days out though. And the vort is coming in from NW, we need that CA slider Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Oklahoma and Arkansas getting wrecked by hour 210 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 This has good potential, better than cold and dry. May help areas that have not seen a lot of snow this winter. Something to watch this week instead of the thaw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: High books it into the Atlantic before storm arrives! Nitpicking at 9 days out though. And the vort is coming in from NW, we need that CA slider I'm just happy the pattern looks active with potential. Whoever said Charlotte won't see 1" of snow by....may be eating their hat on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 13 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: High books it into the Atlantic before storm arrives! Nitpicking at 9 days out though. And the vort is coming in from NW, we need that CA slider Sorry, meant put that in the current threat thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 7 hours ago, Red1976Red said: I'm just happy the pattern looks active with potential. Whoever said Charlotte won't see 1" of snow by....may be eating their hat on this one. It’s a rocking pattern for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 9 hours ago, Bob Chill said: It's interesting period we're entering. The warmth this week will be fairly brief but it's going to feel like Hawaii after the last couple weeks. What was originally going to be a brief cool down next week now looks like a 3-4 day window that "could" produce something with a legit Jan air mass. Then it looks like another repeat late next week with another fairly abrupt warm up but ens guidance is already starting to show that will be pretty brief too. While the shuffle happens in the conus it really does look like a legit -ao is going to try to form. Yea, I know...I know....believe it when we see it but this signal is getting kind of strong. It starts inside of 10 days and it's showing up on the ens means way out at the end of their runs. Is this one for real? Let's assume it is for a minute.... My guess is the upcoming -pna/+epo period is going to be short lived and the pac will go back to the base state we've seen all winter so far. At least in some form. Probably not identical to the way we've been in the ice box but favorable for cold in North America in general. Add in a -ao and shorter wavelengths that start showing up as we enter February and there's a reason for cautious optimism. Some winters that hit hard with cold early flip a switch and never come back. Other ones take a break and reload. I was concerned about a long term flip to warm last week but I'm starting to change my mind. I have a hunch by the end of this week we're going to be talking about how good the long range looks. Thanks Bob! You can already see the GEFS bringing cold back in the plains quicker the past few runs. I thought it would be early Feb by the time we got back into a -EPO/+PNA pattern again but GEFS sure is trying to get there a little quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 48hr h5 trend...LOL Going to be no living with Mack and ColdRain after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 11 minutes ago, packbacker said: 48hr h5 trend...LOL Going to be no living with Mack and ColdRain after this. That looks rainy. If I track one more dud storm......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Nary a snowflake to be found on either the GFS(out to 16 days) or GEM(10 days). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 17 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Nary a snowflake to be found on either the GFS(out to 16 days) or GEM(10 days). I think I saw 2 snowflakes in your backyard on 12z GFS on 1/22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 The good looking PNA we had for next week’s potential was more muted on the 12z GFS so the precipitation cut well West like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 There are a lot of things (indices, LR models, inevitable flip to warm that usually happens, etc.) that say we're now going to be warm(er) for a while. Hopefully we can turn the tables by the end of the month. So I guess I'll say it; fab February will save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 I would like to see some much warmer temps in the 60s, that usually bodes well for a major storm potential in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Sweet Tweet from our favorite SAI guy: https://mobile.twitter.com/judah47 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 No idea how to imbed the stupid thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 The best science that money can buy says that the rest of #winter stays mild for the US (and all of Eurasia). But I discuss why my forecaster instinct tells me otherwise in an #art vs. #science approach to seasonal forecasting debate in the updated blog (link: http://bit.ly/1jXiL4K) bit.ly/1jXiL4K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 ^ That’s as good as it gets, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: The best science that money can buy says that the rest of #winter stays mild for the US (and all of Eurasia). But I discuss why my forecaster instinct tells me otherwise in an #art vs. #science approach to seasonal forecasting debate in the updated blog (link: http://bit.ly/1jXiL4K) bit.ly/1jXiL4K Did Pack write this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: ^ That’s as good as it gets, I guess. Larry is on the torch train, it would seem! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Larry is on the torch train, it would seem! Virtually everyone has been on the torch train since day the beginning of winter. Let me know when they thaw out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 The 15-17th on the GFS , looks kind of interesting. Showing on Euro as well , I believe! The Memphis Mauler this weekend, will be the appetizer for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 37 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: The best science that money can buy says that the rest of #winter stays mild for the US (and all of Eurasia). But I discuss why my forecaster instinct tells me otherwise in an #art vs. #science approach to seasonal forecasting debate in the updated blog (link: http://bit.ly/1jXiL4K) bit.ly/1jXiL4K I've always found these maps misleading. They use these dark orange and red colors to give the impression that the word is on fire but the truth is, if that dark red up around Siberia makes it into the lower 48 they'll have to make a new shade of blue to show temperature departure from normal. It's all relative I guess idk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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