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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95

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1 hour ago, packbacker said:

Pretty much...perfect event would be a 4-6” event.   Hangs around for the next day and then 60’s and outside weather the following. I would never survive in the NE.   I like tracking, like watching it fall.  Then I want life back to normal. 

I do want to end our sub 10” season drought ASAP.  

I'm just hoping to end my sub 1" season drought.

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6 hours ago, packbacker said:

It’s coming!   I think...:o

Look at that block on the EPS and what’s rolling over from Siberia.  We are in a nina...it has to come...or does it

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png

It's interesting period we're entering. The warmth this week will be fairly brief but it's going to feel like Hawaii after the last couple weeks. What was originally going to be a brief cool down next week now looks like a 3-4 day window that "could" produce something with a legit Jan air mass. Then it looks like another repeat late next week with another fairly abrupt warm up but ens guidance is already starting to show that will be pretty brief too. 

While the shuffle happens in the conus it really does look like a legit -ao is going to try to form. Yea, I know...I know....believe it when we see it but this signal is getting kind of strong. It starts inside of 10 days and it's showing up on the ens means way out at the end of their runs. Is this one for real?

Let's assume it is for a minute.... My guess is the upcoming -pna/+epo period is going to be short lived and the pac will go back to the base state we've seen all winter so far. At least in some form. Probably not identical to the way we've been in the ice box but favorable for cold in North America in general. Add in a -ao and shorter wavelengths that start showing up as we enter February and there's a reason for cautious optimism. 

Some winters that hit hard with cold early flip a switch and never come back. Other ones take a break and reload. I was concerned about a long term flip to warm last week but I'm starting to change my mind. I have a hunch by the end of this week we're going to be talking about how good the long range looks. 

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2 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

What an impossible forecast this is, huge bust likely either way for some, possible for many. Temps all over the place , different air masses, just crazy.

High books it into the Atlantic before storm arrives! Nitpicking at 9 days out though. And the vort is coming in from NW, we need that CA slider

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4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

High books it into the Atlantic before storm arrives! Nitpicking at 9 days out though. And the vort is coming in from NW, we need that CA slider

I'm just happy the pattern looks active with potential. Whoever said Charlotte won't see 1" of snow by....may be eating their hat on this one. 

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9 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

It's interesting period we're entering. The warmth this week will be fairly brief but it's going to feel like Hawaii after the last couple weeks. What was originally going to be a brief cool down next week now looks like a 3-4 day window that "could" produce something with a legit Jan air mass. Then it looks like another repeat late next week with another fairly abrupt warm up but ens guidance is already starting to show that will be pretty brief too. 

While the shuffle happens in the conus it really does look like a legit -ao is going to try to form. Yea, I know...I know....believe it when we see it but this signal is getting kind of strong. It starts inside of 10 days and it's showing up on the ens means way out at the end of their runs. Is this one for real?

Let's assume it is for a minute.... My guess is the upcoming -pna/+epo period is going to be short lived and the pac will go back to the base state we've seen all winter so far. At least in some form. Probably not identical to the way we've been in the ice box but favorable for cold in North America in general. Add in a -ao and shorter wavelengths that start showing up as we enter February and there's a reason for cautious optimism. 

Some winters that hit hard with cold early flip a switch and never come back. Other ones take a break and reload. I was concerned about a long term flip to warm last week but I'm starting to change my mind. I have a hunch by the end of this week we're going to be talking about how good the long range looks. 

Thanks Bob!  You can already see the GEFS bringing cold back in the plains quicker the past few runs.  I thought it would be early Feb by the time we got back into a -EPO/+PNA pattern again but GEFS sure is trying to get there a little quicker.

C7zFF0P.gif

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2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:
The best science that money can buy says that the rest of #winter stays mild for the US (and all of Eurasia). But I discuss why my forecaster instinct tells me otherwise in an #art vs. #science approach to seasonal forecasting debate in the updated blog (link: http://bit.ly/1jXiL4K) bit.ly/1jXiL4K
 
Embedded
 

Did Pack write this! ;)

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37 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:
The best science that money can buy says that the rest of #winter stays mild for the US (and all of Eurasia). But I discuss why my forecaster instinct tells me otherwise in an #art vs. #science approach to seasonal forecasting debate in the updated blog (link: http://bit.ly/1jXiL4K) bit.ly/1jXiL4K
 
Embedded
 

I've always found these maps misleading. They use these dark orange and red colors to give the impression that the word is on fire but the truth is, if that dark red up around Siberia makes it into the lower 48 they'll have to make a new shade of blue to show temperature departure from normal. It's all relative I guess idk

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