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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

Cary_Snow95

By Cary_Snow95,
in Southeastern States

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Upstate Tiger

Upstate Tiger

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Poimen said:

Plenty of reasons to be optimistic going forward: MJO; PV displacement/disruption; EURO weeklies showing blocky/cold pattern for January. Rest up boys and girls!!

If this comes to fruition, this would remind me a lot of the 81/82 winter.  We had a southern winter storm before Christmas, a relaxation of cold for a couple of weeks, and then an absolutely brutal period of cold in January that was kicked off by a 2 day east coast winter storm that dropped 8" IMBY (upsate SC).  Couple of things I remember from that cold spell was the Cincinnati and San Diego ice bowl play off game and the air Florida crash in the Potomac.   

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Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted

It may get soggy, or not, on Thursday. 

 With heavy rain once again the primary threat, a 
storm total precipitation of 1.5 to 2 inches could once again bring 
rivers to flood stage. One potential caveat to this scenario is that 
much of the strongest convection appears to head east of the CWA. 
The other is the potential for a large dry slot to develop and move 
into central NC, thus limiting rainfall totals.
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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, Solak said:

It may get soggy, or not, on Thursday. 


 With heavy rain once again the primary threat, a 
storm total precipitation of 1.5 to 2 inches could once again bring 
rivers to flood stage. One potential caveat to this scenario is that 
much of the strongest convection appears to head east of the CWA. 
The other is the potential for a large dry slot to develop and move 
into central NC, thus limiting rainfall totals.

We're so close to a eclipsing 1996 at RDU, we might as well go ahead and break it.

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said:

If this comes to fruition, this would remind me a lot of the 81/82 winter.  We had a southern winter storm before Christmas, a relaxation of cold for a couple of weeks, and then an absolutely brutal period of cold in January that was kicked off by a 2 day east coast winter storm that dropped 8" IMBY (upsate SC).  Couple of things I remember from that cold spell was the Cincinnati and San Diego ice bowl play off game and the air Florida crash in the Potomac.   

Yea Its all house money going forward. Give a double digit storm followed by some vodka cold, Then another SECHS for late Jan into Feb. 

I want to cross the 20 inch mark this year for seasonal total at a minimum.

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SnowNiner

SnowNiner

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, griteater said:

FYI, I gave some additional thoughts on Jan/Feb here in DonSutherland's thread, with a comparison to 2004: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51728-winter-outlook-2018-2019/?do=findComment&comment=5073399

 

Grit you know bringing up February 2004 is going to make me emotional right? Why toy with my emotions like that? lol. Great winter storm for the clt area that month.  I was surprised it wasn't colder than it was in February, and that there really wasn't a lot of west coast ridging.  

Interesting how we're in a nino, but the atmosphere is not yet acting like one.  When and how do we know it'll start acting like one? 

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, SnowNiner said:

Grit you know bringing up February 2004 is going to make me emotional right? Why toy with my emotions like that? lol. Great winter storm for the clt area that month.  I was surprised it wasn't colder than it was in February, and that there really wasn't a lot of west coast ridging.  

Interesting how we're in a nino, but the atmosphere is not yet acting like one.  When and how do we know it'll start acting like one? 

Weather-wise I'd say it has acted like a nino in many respects.  We've had some split flow waves, and the temperature profile across the country is behaving similar to Dec 2002 for example (early Dec winter storm in 2002 as well).

In terms of nino not being locked in, it's mainly what DonS was referring to with the very active MJO since Sep and the +SOI numbers in Dec.  All in all, it's nothing to fret over really as each nino takes on it's own personality with variations of the typically expected nino weather patterns.

MVentrice's ENSO Index has us locked-in El Nino (I believe his index is largely based on velocity potential anomalies over an extended period - say, 90 or 120 days) - so that's an alternate viewpoint - https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1075048776904163329

But this NOAA blog touches on the MJO behavior and how it relates to this year's El Nino - https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/december-2018-enso-update-relationship-advice

Here's a snippet from that blog:

"The MJO has been active over the past few months, circling the Earth a few times since September. When the MJO-related area of enhanced convection moves from Africa to the Indian Ocean and through the Pacific, it changes the winds and cloud patterns in the areas we monitor for El Niño conditions. The MJO is a subseasonal pattern, meaning it affects conditions on timescales of a few weeks. Recently, most of the changes we’ve observed in the atmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific look MJO-related, changing from week to week.

ENSO, on the other hand, is a seasonal pattern, meaning it lasts for several months in a row. We’ve already observed a season of above-average tropical Pacific surface temperature and expect it to continue through the spring. When the atmospheric response to the warmer-than-average waters has kicked in, those signature changes (the weak-in-the-knees Walker circulation) will lock in for the long haul.  The consistent changes in the atmospheric circulation are how El Niño affects global weather and climate patterns."

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

Posted
Posted

JB is on the VERY COLD side going forward!! (No surprise) :o:shiver:

Major cold evolving for January.
Don't want to rush the core of cold in.
The threat of most severe cold will be for January 15-February 15 when normals are lowest.
During that time the average of Chicago, NYC, Dallas and Atlanta could reach -10°F or greater for at least a week.
Benchmark for lowest temperatures is 0°F in NYC, -10°F in Chicago, 15°F at Dallas and 10°F in Atlanta.
Feedback from threats of repetitive snow events can enhance the cold.
First of all drying is spreading back into the area of the Indian Ocean in Days 4-11 that tipped us off to the current warmth when it was wet.

image.gif

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Northern Foothills Snowman

Northern Foothills Snowman

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

JB is on the VERY COLD side going forward!! (No surprise) :o:shiver:

Major cold evolving for January.
Don't want to rush the core of cold in.
The threat of most severe cold will be for January 15-February 15 when normals are lowest.
During that time the average of Chicago, NYC, Dallas and Atlanta could reach -10°F or greater for at least a week.
Benchmark for lowest temperatures is 0°F in NYC, -10°F in Chicago, 15°F at Dallas and 10°F in Atlanta.
Feedback from threats of repetitive snow events can enhance the cold.
First of all drying is spreading back into the area of the Indian Ocean in Days 4-11 that tipped us off to the current warmth when it was wet.

image.gif

He was spot on on the 10th snowstorm as well. 

This winter is setting up to be something very special for all the cold and  snow fanatics. Like myself. 

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted
59 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

JB is on the VERY COLD side going forward!! (No surprise) :o:shiver:

Major cold evolving for January.
Don't want to rush the core of cold in.
The threat of most severe cold will be for January 15-February 15 when normals are lowest.
During that time the average of Chicago, NYC, Dallas and Atlanta could reach -10°F or greater for at least a week.
Benchmark for lowest temperatures is 0°F in NYC, -10°F in Chicago, 15°F at Dallas and 10°F in Atlanta.
Feedback from threats of repetitive snow events can enhance the cold.
First of all drying is spreading back into the area of the Indian Ocean in Days 4-11 that tipped us off to the current warmth when it was wet.

I mean, things are lining up really nicely.  The SSWarming looks legit here at the end of Dec (which is early for one), and it's more and more looking like a good one w/ PV split.  Give that a week or 2 for the effects to kick in.  As that occurs, the tropical forcing heads into the phases with +ENSO that would favor -EPO/+PNA.  That's just Jan...but good, cold patterns are favored, in general, in Feb during +ENSO winters...and the effects of the SSW could very well linger into Feb as well.  Positive optimism is warranted IMO.

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, BIG FROSTY said:

JB is on the VERY COLD side going forward!! (No surprise) :o:shiver:

Major cold evolving for January.
Don't want to rush the core of cold in.
The threat of most severe cold will be for January 15-February 15 when normals are lowest.
During that time the average of Chicago, NYC, Dallas and Atlanta could reach -10°F or greater for at least a week.
Benchmark for lowest temperatures is 0°F in NYC, -10°F in Chicago, 15°F at Dallas and 10°F in Atlanta.
Feedback from threats of repetitive snow events can enhance the cold.
First of all drying is spreading back into the area of the Indian Ocean in Days 4-11 that tipped us off to the current warmth when it was wet.

image.gif

Didn’t he say the storm that hit NC was going to hit NY and NE? I’m -40 below avg if I calculate his last four winter forecasts! :(

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HKY_WX

HKY_WX

Posted
Posted

You can see the degree of 10mb temp warming near the polar latitudes on the eps between day 3 and day 10... see attached. This eventually leads to the large trough over the east on the extended eps and weeklies.. Its kind of fascinating the progression of this winter appears eerly similiar to 02/03 thus far.

 

 

cf5c33c174e335fe157cf2e3b6b1c6f5.jpg&key=97a5fc8e3ee642393162799670b2bfbfafa1877c19a05750a0c38446f9c5a4235bb68f0ed6e1c62d6d2f4141aeb45f09.jpg&key=5f15f2a5fa27ac02ab85b3d20a5c499cb4f613554c4bafdfe41204463ae06d98

 

 

 

 

 

 

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CaryWx

CaryWx

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, griteater said:

I mean, things are lining up really nicely.  The SSWarming looks legit here at the end of Dec (which is early for one), and it's more and more looking like a good one w/ PV split.  Give that a week or 2 for the effects to kick in.  As that occurs, the tropical forcing heads into the phases with +ENSO that would favor -EPO/+PNA.  That's just Jan...but good, cold patterns are favored, in general, in Feb during +ENSO winters...and the effects of the SSW could very well linger into Feb as well.  Positive optimism is warranted IMO.

Grit, Sometimes from what I've read we need the SSW to benefit NA though right, and not Europe or Asia. Some of those weeklies were showing Canada getting the cold though I think

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CaryWx said:

Grit, Sometimes from what I've read we need the SSW to benefit NA though right, and not Europe or Asia. Some of those weeklies were showing Canada getting the cold though I think

A good SSW should put us in a "more often than not" -AO regime over the 1.5 to 2 month period following the SSW...and that's where the MJO comes in.  Phases 7-8-1-2 of the MJO would give us a greater chance at directing that -AO cold into the eastern U.S.

Today's 12z Euro that HkyWx mentioned splits the Strat PV (10mb) at day 9-10 and has a SSW wind reversal at day 10 - https://twitter.com/griteater/status/1075241330408939520

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

The indices look ok today:

PNA - Falls to neutral in the medium range and then back to positive in the LR (good)

AO - Continues to stay negative until late in the LR when it looks to average neutral (ok)

NAO - Continues to average neutral from now to the LR (ok)

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

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