CaryWx Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 45 minutes ago, Solak said: 18z GFS suppresses the 'Christmas' storm across Florida and OTS with no impact on the SE other than FL. Yep. Let's see if it stays there in a stronger STJ year. Cold suppression of a system would not be what I think happens very much in a mod. el nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 3 hours ago, Cold Rain said: Angus Barn. You'll love it. Bring your snow shovel. It'll probably be January. Make sure you have a left-handed shovel for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 1 hour ago, Solak said: 18z GFS suppresses the 'Christmas' storm across Florida and OTS with no impact on the SE other than FL. Perfect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 10 hours ago, jburns said: I'm in. Metoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Control run of the Euro had a snow event on christmas day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 34 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Control run of the Euro had a snow event on christmas day. In NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 13 minutes ago, CaryWx said: In NC? Mid Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 27 minutes ago, CaryWx said: In NC? Roughly along and north 85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Roughly along and north 85. Go figure! who would of thought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 On 11/22/2018 at 12:29 PM, NC_hailstorm said: Pattern can produce if the Solar/QBO signal is favorable which it is.It can produce in early December just like it did in late March. I'll stick with this.Solar wind is running 391.8 over the last 60 days,EEP levels still low no big geomagnetic activity.QBO at -9.67 at 50mb,better chances for lower heights/trough in N America.Anyone else notice the big rainfall totals across the country this year?Solar min also increases the cosmic rays and that increases the cloudcover on the globe.That in turn increases the rainfall where the low heights/trough set up.Cosmic rays have been hitting hard for close to a year and it's not a coincidence in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 32 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: I'll stick with this.Solar wind is running 391.8 over the last 60 days,EEP levels still low no big geomagnetic activity.QBO at -9.67 at 50mb,better chances for lower heights/trough in N America.Anyone else notice the big rainfall totals across the country this year?Solar min also increases the cosmic rays and that increases the cloudcover on the globe.That in turn increases the rainfall where the low heights/trough set up.Cosmic rays have been hitting hard for close to a year and it's not a coincidence in my opinion. Great posts on the solar man. I think you and someone else had mentioned the solar output associated with the weather. I think there is more to that than a lot of people realize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Models still Hinting for Something happening on Christmas.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 The Christmas system (288 hrs) looks a little better on today's 18z GFS. Surface temps for here (Smithfield) are in the low 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 The Christmas system (288 hrs) looks a little better on today's 18z GFS. Surface temps for here (Smithfield) are in the low 40s.Where did this map come from? Never seen this graphic before. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 2 hours ago, CADEffect said: Where did this map come from? Never seen this graphic before. . Change the airport code in the link to match up with your locale. This is set for KJNX http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KJNX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 As things currently stand, there will be some moisture in play for the SE around Christmas, thermal profile TBD but looking marginal at best with low cutting through the Lakes and lackluster HP coming down in the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 As expected, ALL the modelsLost this storm out side 12 days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Looks like the heavier rain is missing the western third of NC so far and that's good news,don't need that on top of several inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 I suppose it may be quiet here for a little while.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 1 hour ago, ajr said: I suppose it may be quiet here for a little while.. The latest 18z GFS would confirm Allan's thoughts. But the good thing is Christmas is looking cold (40s for highs 20s for low). For me that's good enough. Lets hope it hold true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 2 hours ago, FallsLake said: The latest 18z GFS would confirm Allan's thoughts. But the good thing is Christmas is looking cold (40s for highs 20s for low). For me that's good enough. Lets hope it hold true. Agree Falls. Just would like to build a fire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 5 hours ago, CaryWx said: Agree Falls. Just would like to build a fire You could just warm your hands by the dumpster fire that’s looking to take place between now and end of January! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 4 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: You could just warm your hands by the dumpster fire that’s looking to take place between now and end of January! There's definitely nothing to look at for the next couple of weeks. The latest 6z GFS would have lows ~freezing with highs in the 40s/50s for Christmas Eve day (not Bad). But Christmas Day would have highs in the 50s/60s. Not horrible, but it wont feel in the season if that run verifies. Edit: FV3 would be a little colder with a CAD setup. Still nothing wintery but a colder Christmas Day. **still a few more days until the models start settling on an overall pattern look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 Lol... just a week before our storm showed up on the models you guys were freaking out about dec cancel and a never ending torch pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 35 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Lol... just a week before our storm showed up on the models you guys were freaking out about dec cancel and a never ending torch pattern. But I think we did have better blocking in place and forecasted. We could get lucky and sneak in an event but most likely we’ll stay in this relaxed pattern for another two to three weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 If the upcoming pattern is this year’s definition of “torch,” I’m ok with it; especially if mid-January through February are rocking. Plus, many of us are already playing house money, so there’s that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WFFaithful Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 Wilmington gets another 6" of rain before the end of the year on the FV3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 Some CAD ice might be possible between Christmas and New Years. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 Notice the VP200 tropical forcing(MJO) weakens or stalls when the solar wind/EEP peak every 20 days or so.There is research that shows solar indirectly driving MJO as well in winter months. Solar is overall low at the moment(391.6 last 60 days) but every 20 days or so the coronal hole orbits around and that's when you have the spike for 6-10 days.Let's see the evidence. Pay attention to the dips around Oct.7th-Oct 15,Nov 5th-Nov 15,And Dec 7th-Dec 13th. Solar wind on the October days- 463,546.5,504.5 397.5,424,520.5,610 November- 565,467.5,426,466,431,552.5,569.5,593.5,485.5. November actually had 2 coronal holes and these 2 dips match up perfectly. December- 420,510.5,589.5,599,502,404,364 Almost a perfect match going by the solar wind/EEP levels when observing tropical forcing.So going by the pattern the MJO should have a brief stall/weaken then pick up steam soon but the next coronal hole orbit is Dec 30th and where ever the MJO is then it will stall and weaken again most likely. Anyway just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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