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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

Cary_Snow95

By Cary_Snow95,
in Southeastern States

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frazdaddy

frazdaddy

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

Yeah, that last frame is ugly.  It'll change again next time.

When we hitting the Angus Barn back up?!

I'm in, we have a lot more forum peeps now. Maybe @mackerel_sky will join us this time.

More on topic, the FV3 sure is throwing some interesting frozen scenarios out for the end of the month. Looks like we will get to see just how good this new model can be! 

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

We certainly dont look torchy. I'd say at or slightly below average through christmas. 

That's about right.  The pattern doesn't look very exciting, but at least there are no signs of locking in any type of summer pattern for an extended duration.  If the MJO keeps trucking around the horn, then we should start to see some type of wintry threat show up toward the beginning of next month.  I'm a big fan of the STJ action we've seen so far (which looks to continue).  It would be nice for some blocking to start showing up.  I keep waiting on that winter after winter, but it never really materializes.  I was thinking this winter would turn the tide, especially after what we saw in November, but so far, nada.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, frazdaddy said:

I'm in, we have a lot more forum peeps now. Maybe @mackerel_sky will join us this time.

More on topic, the FV3 sure is throwing some interesting frozen scenarios out for the end of the month. Looks like we will get to see just how good this new model can be! 

@mackerel_skywill say he will, and then he'll spend half the time driving loops around 540!  I think he has family in the area, though.  Mack, that right?

I'm impressed with the FV3, in terms of how it did with the last storm.  In recent winters, I don't believe we've been able to track a winter storm in from 7-10 days out.  This one was a long-track deal.

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tarheelwx

tarheelwx

Posted
Posted

FV3 did well, but honestly most models had it from a week or more out.  Yes it did well, but so did the others.  So, in my eyes, it really did separate itself. Southern stream storms seem to be the easiest for the models to pick up on.  It was rare to see such model agreement and consistency from so far out.  I think that just tells us we’re in a totally different pattern than in years past.  I think something between Christmas and New Year’s is a possibility. 

TW

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SnowNiner

SnowNiner

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

FV3 did well, but honestly most models had it from a week or more out.  Yes it did well, but so did the others.  So, in my eyes, it really did separate itself. Southern stream storms seem to be the easiest for the models to pick up on.  It was rare to see such model agreement and consistency from so far out.  I think that just tells us we’re in a totally different pattern than in years past.  I think something between Christmas and New Year’s is a possibility. 

TW

Yeah, I thought the FV3 did ok.  GFS in general I think and GEFS really latched onto it at long lead time.  I think we started talking about it on the ensembles day 10! I remember hoping the EURO runs would catch on to the GFS suite and they finally did inside 6 days or so. FV3 thermals were too cold though IMBY.  

I think on this last storm, we got just enough blocking and ridging over Greenland to keep the 50/50 low in place.  It actually trended stronger and further SW I believe closer to the storm, which was a complete surprise. But yes, the huge greenland block from November seemed very transient and it's nowhere to be found again in the next several week model runs.  Hopefully the Euro weeklies come true for January, they looked very blocky. 

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

@mackerel_skywill say he will, and then he'll spend half the time driving loops around 540!  I think he has family in the area, though.  Mack, that right?

I'm impressed with the FV3, in terms of how it did with the last storm.  In recent winters, I don't believe we've been able to track a winter storm in from 7-10 days out.  This one was a long-track deal.

Yeah, I hate CLT! Grew up 20 years in Gastonia, still can’t find my way around CLT! But I hear the Angus Barn, is pretty legendary! I would love to be at the next get together! I could knock out a 32oz ribeye, mid-rare! Yeah, I got sisters and family in Apex and Roxboro! I’m only coming if Bricks coming! :)

On topic, GFSv3, has our Christmas storm showing winter mischief. Hopefully it’s not rushing the pattern change, but as long as we get the cold rockin in January, we will be golden!! We got 99 problems, but moisture ain’t one!! 

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

@mackerel_skywill say he will, and then he'll spend half the time driving loops around 540!  I think he has family in the area, though.  Mack, that right?

I'm impressed with the FV3, in terms of how it did with the last storm.  In recent winters, I don't believe we've been able to track a winter storm in from 7-10 days out.  This one was a long-track deal.

Last January we did. Only one we eneded up tracking,but it struck gold over here and salvaged a horrible winter.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yeah, I hate CLT! Grew up 20 years in Gastonia, still can’t find my way around CLT! But I hear the Angus Barn, is pretty legendary! I would love to be at the next get together! I could knock out a 32oz ribeye, mid-rare! Yeah, I got sisters and family in Apex and Roxboro! I’m only coming if Bricks coming! :)

On topic, GFSv3, has our Christmas storm showing winter mischief. Hopefully it’s not rushing the pattern change, but as long as we get the cold rockin in January, we will be golden!! We got 99 problems, but moisture ain’t one!! 

Lol Brick will never, ever go to a GTG.  But you should come up anyway.  I'll bet Frazdaddy can hook us up with a deal.  He knows everybody! :)

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Not that we need to spend vast amounts of time analyzing a 10 day Euro map, but since we have nothing going on, it's fun to at least take a look at it.  I like this view, as it may present some clues as to how things might evolve:

Euro.thumb.jpg.59efa8e8f5a803290f102b020c4c6ee5.jpg

You can see the Euro keeps the STJ going strong.  This is a plus and will enable some of us to score easier than we normally would, even in a less than ideal pattern.  The red area (EPO space) looks to be evolving favorably, going from low pressure to high pressure, facilitating a -EPO.  The big pink blob over the NP needs to go.  If the EPO space evolves favorably, then you'll see the pink area "migrate" toward Canada.  The Yellow area needs some work as well.  Having a lot of activity there means bouts of warm air intrusion into Canada and the Pac NW.  We go rapidly back and forth from a +PNA to a -PNA as each wave crashes into the coast.  The model looks to be sort of regtrograding this westward toward the Aleutians.  Hopefully, that evolves into a low pressure zone in that area.

This kind of pattern, until it changes into something more favorable will need good timing to produce anything other than rain.  Fortunately, with the STJ remaining active, this may be easier to achieve than previous years.  Hopefully, the EPO will become favorable, the strenuous activity off the NW coast will abate, and a PNA ridge will stabilize.  I give that a decent chance of happening, if the model is correct here.  Down the line, such a pattern combined with the elusive -NAO would be very favorable for wintry weather in the SE.  The good news is, if the model is correct, we shouldn't be too far from having fantasy land threats start showing up again.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Hey CR, you would almost think that map was setting the stage for something to sneak along the gulf just in time for Christmas. At least that's what my weenie eyes want to see..   

It very well could.  I think the GFS and its replacement have both had a storm on and off during that time frame.  The issue is going to be cold air delivery.  I haven't yet seen a model depict adequate cold air for any legit wintry threat outside the mountains during this period, even though I have seen a few good tracks with the southern storm.  We haven't been able to see Euroland yet, so we'll wait till it gets into the 10 day period.  I'd like to see some high pressure up there though, instead of the parade of lows.  The only shot it looks like we'll have is for a particularly strong northern wave to run deep enough south and lay down a little cold air right ahead of the storm and also act to keep it suppressed.  It's a needle.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

It very well could.  I think the GFS and its replacement have both had a storm on and off during that time frame.  The issue is going to be cold air delivery.  I haven't yet seen a model depict adequate cold air for any legit wintry threat outside the mountains during this period, even though I have seen a few good tracks with the southern storm.  We haven't been able to see Euroland yet, so we'll wait till it gets into the 10 day period.  I'd like to see some high pressure up there though, instead of the parade of lows.  The only shot it looks like we'll have is for a particularly strong northern wave to run deep enough south and lay down a little cold air right ahead of the storm and also act to keep it suppressed.  It's a needle.

Man for us it's always a needle. I think that's why we have so many sleepless nights tracking storms. One small shift and everything changes (for 90% of our storms).   

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frazdaddy

frazdaddy

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

Lol Brick will never, ever go to a GTG.  But you should come up anyway.  I'll bet Frazdaddy can hook us up with a deal.  He knows everybody! :)

lol, I'll talk to Brick. I'm sure @FallsLake and @jburnswill come. @No snow for you is in. I bet @Isopycnic will too. If we plan it around @burgertime 's return to the US maybe him too.

Now back on topic and let's move this to banter. I have a feeling things pick up in here pretty quick as we get into range for the end of the month. 

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, frazdaddy said:

lol, I'll talk to Brick. I'm sure @FallsLake and @jburnswill come. @No snow for you is in. I bet @Isopycnic will too. If we plan it around @burgertime 's return to the US maybe him too.

Now back on topic and let's move this to banter. I have a feeling things pick up in here pretty quick as we get into range for the end of the month. 

I'll come. That was some good food last time. January sounds good. Maybe we'll be tracking something at the same time. 

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