Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

[CaryWx]

8 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Models have been trying to kill that western ridge for over a month. It never disappears for more than a couple days. We may hit some transient mild periods but I see no major torch in the near future

Sounds plausible.  Uptick last week of Dec maybe

[cbmclean]

11 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Models have been trying to kill that western ridge for over a month. It never disappears for more than a couple days. We may hit some transient mild periods but I see no major torch in the near future

I wasn't implying that I was hugging the d16 GFS operational map. Just that we really want the EPO- dump to head this way and not out west.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

At 120hr there is a 500mb Low pressure at the Aleutian Islands.. at 180, it's a +250dm High. Almost impossible scenario in El Nino. It will be interesting to see if it pans out. 

[Poimen]

Lots of talk on Twitter about a sudden stratospheric warming and resulting disruption of the PV. Fun times ahead, it seems.

[tarheelwx]

10 minutes ago, Poimen said:

Lots of talk on Twitter about a sudden stratospheric warming and resulting disruption of the PV. Fun times ahead, it seems.

Did you check out last nights FV3 for the 23rd? Redux of the weekend.  

TW

[FallsLake]

^^The models keep hinting at a storm ~Christmas. Of course at this range, one model run is just cold enough and the next is too warm (lake cutter). But up until that time, it looks like the whole country is relatively warm. That strat, warming hopefully will set us up for a cold end of the year.  

[PackGrad05]

I know the 6-10 day outlook showed above normal temps for the east coast leading up to Christmas, but the GFS temperatures don't look all that warm.  Looks average or slightly below some days.  

[mackerel_sky]

Good to hear!! Glad we are not waiting till February to look for our unicorn,SSW! Good to kick off that hunt in December!

[tarheelwx]

JB is talking a turn to colder in the east around Christmas with a possible storm in the east that week.  

TW

[Orangeburgwx]

Big time SSW around Christmas

[HKY_WX]

The developing west based weak to weak-mod Nino (from a check of the latest global SST map) has already produced a memorable STJ storm via the splitflow and +PNA pattern. Combining this with the low sun spot activity is going to lead to a memorable winter IMO. It's hard to prove the correlation at this point, but I think lower sunspot activity will lead to more SSW's in the future and -AO  tendencies. If we are on the cusp of a SSW (this is traditionally hard to forecast accurately), there will likely be some record cold in January when you combine it with the PNA setup.

[FallsLake]

36 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

The developing west based weak to weak-mod Nino (from a check of the latest global SST map) has already produced a memorable STJ storm via the splitflow and +PNA pattern. Combining this with the low sun spot activity is going to lead to a memorable winter IMO. It's hard to prove the correlation at this point, but I think lower sunspot activity will lead to more SSW's in the future and -AO  tendencies. If we are on the cusp of a SSW (this is traditionally hard to forecast accurately), there will likely be some record cold in January when you combine it with the PNA setup.

Of course this is out in la la land, but the 12z GFS shows that cross polar air at the end of its run. That's some cold air spilling into North America:

 

[SnowNiner]

14 hours ago, griteater said:

Here are the Euro Weeklies from Dec 20 to Jan 24.  

Looks good at the end for sure.  I'd hate to have to wait until the last week of January to get it though.  Looks warm and quiet until then...hopefully it's quicker than that. 

[HKY_WX]

Here's an old school article on the Sunspot - AO connection. You often see this thrown into a lot of Winter Seasonal forecasts. I need to read some more recent articles on this to see what the latest prevailing research is.

 

https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20011206/

[griteater]

The tropical forcing is now centered in the western Indian Ocean.  If we keep with the current cadence, it should reach the western hemisphere by early January (Phase 8), which, if timed with a weakening stratospheric polar vortex, would give valid reasons to be optimistic for a wintry January.  Paul Roundy has a nice tool for visualizing the pattern produced for each MJO phase...not just for the month, but also for each week of the month - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html 

For the rest of December, I think getting a winter storm is going to require more luck than normal.

[Cold Rain]

2 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Of course this is out in la la land, but the 12z GFS shows that cross polar air at the end of its run. That's some cold air spilling into North America:

 

Fake Version isn't in the holiday spirit.

[SnowNiner]

Yeah, it looks like we're going to have about a 3 week break and recuperation period at least.  I need the sleep! lol. 

Last week in December, looks like the -EPO is just trying to get going again.  Still needs work though.  Hopefully early January we can get the blocking back established, and we can get this nino show back on the road. 

[Snow dog]

9 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Yeah, it looks like we're going to have about a 3 week break and recuperation period at least.  I need the sleep! lol. 

Last week in December, looks like the -EPO is just trying to get going again.  Still needs work though.  Hopefully early January we can get the blocking back established, and we can get this nino show back on the road. 

Would be nice to have a dry period too-I need about that much time to dry out.  We need no more rain!

[SENC]

Interesting look into Fantasy land

 

[FallsLake]

46 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Fake Version isn't in the holiday spirit.

Lol, I will say the FV3 is even colder then the old GFS. **but if taken literally, it initially drops the cold towards the west in the LR.  

[Cold Rain]

15 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Lol, I will say the FV3 is even colder then the old GFS. **but if taken literally, it initially drops the cold towards the west in the LR.  

Yeah, that last frame is ugly.  It'll change again next time.

When we hitting the Angus Barn back up?!

[Solak]

More wet on the way.

A 50kt LLJ ahead of this 
system will transport abundant Gulf and Atlantic moisture (and a 
warmer airmass that will preclude any p-type issues) northward 
across the Carolina's, which will set the stage for a potential 
moderate to heavy rain event that will begin Friday morning and last 
through Saturday. Today's 12Z guidance package would suggest a 1-2.5 
inch QPF event, however it's worth pointing out that the latest 
ECMWF is wetter, esp across the eastern portion of the state. Given 
these sorts of potential rain amounts, combined with melting snow 
across the norther Piedmont, the risk for an areal and then a river 
flood event looks quite possible.

[burrel2]

I'll believe the SSW stuff when it actually happens. Every year since 2010/2011, there is talk about it happening based off long range modeling and it never materializes.

[mackerel_sky]

37 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Yeah, that last frame is ugly.  It'll change again next time.

When we hitting the Angus Barn back up?!

Skies have to heal! Will be tracking another huge rainstorm in time for the holidays!

[SnowNiner]

28 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

I'll believe the SSW stuff when it actually happens. Every year since 2010/2011, there is talk about it happening based off long range modeling and it never materializes.

Yeah I'm not counting on that....what I'm counting on is the nino tropical forcing pushing us back in an -EPO pattern, getting the MJO back in the western hemisphere. Hopefully nino climo will win out and we can get a little blocking in greenland, which I think was also important to the last storm we just had.  We had just enough. 

In any event, keeping the attack on the vortex whether or not it's a SSW can't hurt.  

[Cold Rain]

19 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Skies have to heal! Will be tracking another huge rainstorm in time for the holidays!

Skies are going to break again this weekend.  What are the birds saying?

[mackerel_sky]

1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

Skies are going to break again this weekend.  What are the birds saying?

They are very busy! They’ve been going through seed like crazy! I think they know the SSW is coming! Winter hammertime drops in January 

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

4 hours ago, SENC said:

Interesting look into Fantasy land

 

This may be the year when the fantasy and clown maps have merit. 

[SENC]

2 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

Skies are going to break again this weekend.  What are the birds saying?

What does the "Fox" says?.. GFS-FV3..  

 

[NCSNOW]

As uneventfull as these next 10 to possibly 15 days look on models currently. Best rest up, cause I beleive uts the calm before the storm.

And speaking of storm,Ive seen news of 5 seperate roof collapses in NC. One was a church here in the triad. Wghp fox 8. That was an impressive storm we just had.