Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

[mrdaddyman]

This is a pretty good read for the upcoming pattern if you are interested:

http://www.stormhamster.com/e010518.htm

[Upstate Tiger]

2 hours ago, NCSNOW said:

Saw this on Rays for the MTn folk. Really Historic Cold Snap we are having in these parts. Want get the all time record lows, but the duration is something to behold. Raleigh set to break consecutive day streak below freezing). Heres one for Boone

 

Memorable Cold Stretch

We are in the midst of a memorable cold stretch. We only had time to run these numbers for Boone, but historically, these are the longest span of consecutive days with high temperatures less than or equal to 20° (the respective highs in parenthesis):
January 17-21, 1977 (9, 12, 10, 20, 16)
January 3-6, 2010 (16, 17, 16, 17)
December 22-25, 1989 (16, 11, 18, 19)
January 23-25, 2014 (20, 19, 20)
February 4-6, 1996 (11, 3, 20)
December 24-26, 1995 (19, 17, 20)
February 17-19, 1958 (5, 8, 16)
Today will be 2 days in a row at or below 20. We think Saturday will make 3. That puts us in relatively rare territory. Snow showers and flurries continue today. Windy conditions end Saturday morning. Bitter cold lasts through Sunday morning. Clouds increase late Sunday. A wintry mix changing to rain is expected Monday. 

 

 

As a Cold weather fan gonna enjoy it before the pattern changes and the Flame throwers come out in full force! LOL

Today I was driving north up 85 from Gastonia to Mt. Holly and when I crossed the first river on 85 past Gastonia (think it is South Fork River, I'm still new to NC) the river was completely frozen below.  I am sure it was a thin layer of ice.  Nevertheless, I can't imagine that's happened often in the past.

[HKY_WX]

2 hours ago, NCSNOW said:

Saw this on Rays for the MTn folk. Really Historic Cold Snap we are having in these parts. Want get the all time record lows, but the duration is something to behold. Raleigh set to break consecutive day streak below freezing). Heres one for Boone

 

Memorable Cold Stretch

We are in the midst of a memorable cold stretch. We only had time to run these numbers for Boone, but historically, these are the longest span of consecutive days with high temperatures less than or equal to 20° (the respective highs in parenthesis):
January 17-21, 1977 (9, 12, 10, 20, 16)
January 3-6, 2010 (16, 17, 16, 17)
December 22-25, 1989 (16, 11, 18, 19)
January 23-25, 2014 (20, 19, 20)
February 4-6, 1996 (11, 3, 20)
December 24-26, 1995 (19, 17, 20)
February 17-19, 1958 (5, 8, 16)
Today will be 2 days in a row at or below 20. We think Saturday will make 3. That puts us in relatively rare territory. Snow showers and flurries continue today. Windy conditions end Saturday morning. Bitter cold lasts through Sunday morning. Clouds increase late Sunday. A wintry mix changing to rain is expected Monday. 

 

 

As a Cold weather fan gonna enjoy it before the pattern changes and the Flame throwers come out in full force! LOL

Some really cold winters on that list.

[NCSNOW]

1 hour ago, mrdaddyman said:

This is a pretty good read for the upcoming pattern if you are interested:

http://www.stormhamster.com/e010518.htm

Awesome Read. Thanks for sharing

[packbacker]

Hope...these have been good in the past  

 

[DixieBlizzard]

12 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Hope...these have been good in the past  

 

Would love where the "battle zones" are located on that map!

 

[mackerel_sky]

Packs losing his window to get his fertilizer/preemergent/ Bermuda sod Layed down , is getting smaller and smaller!  

And another note, I don't even know why I watch wyff 4! They just said the Euro is dry, ( I get that) , but then tossed out " it's the most reliable model"! SMDH

[FallsLake]

I know it's day 16 on the GFS, but it is much colder up in NW Canada than the last run. 12z was depressing. The 18z look would give us hope that we could see cold outbreaks for the end of the month. 

[griteater]

^ Ventrice isn't a hype-ster.  Heck, I don't even know if he likes cold 

[mackerel_sky]

11 minutes ago, griteater said:

^ Ventrice isn't a hype-ster.  Heck, I don't even know if he likes cold 

As modeled Pack, that would put us in a good snow and ice pattern, without too much supression?

[JoshM]

35 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Packs losing his window to get his fertilizer/preemergent/ Bermuda sod Layed down , is getting smaller and smaller!  

And another note, I don't even know why I watch wyff 4! They just said the Euro is dry, ( I get that) , but then tossed out " it's the most reliable model"! SMDH

Do yourself a favor, watch WLOS, much less drama. They actually do a good forecast IMO

[Iceagewhereartthou]

15 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

I know it's day 16 on the GFS, but it is much colder up in NW Canada than the last run. 12z was depressing. The 18z look would give us hope that we could see cold outbreaks for the end of the month. 

I know I'm in the minority, but I'm really going to miss the cold. Of course I would love to have gotten snow with it but the cold is at least some consolation, and I have enjoyed it actually feeling like winter. Our normal 50/30 is SOOOOOOO boring and yields very little opportunity for any fun, and the warm winters we've had have been torture with all 60s and 70s. I have a sinking feeling this is going to be like 2010/2011 , where the cold left in mid January never to return; full spring. I personally would hate that. I hope you're correct and we get some more legitimate chances.

[mackerel_sky]

12 minutes ago, JoshM said:

Do yourself a favor, watch WLOS, much less drama. They actually do a good forecast IMO

They seemed very mountains centric, in the past. I may need try them again! That Michael Ventrice post totally got me excited, after seeing all of packs red and orange maps!

[FallsLake]

13 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I know I'm in the minority, but I'm really going to miss the cold. Of course I would love to have gotten snow with it but the cold is at least some consolation, and I have enjoyed it actually feeling like winter. Our normal 50/30 is SOOOOOOO boring and yields very little opportunity for any fun, and the warm winters we've had have been torture with all 60s and 70s. I have a sinking feeling this is going to be like 2010/2011 , where the cold left in mid January never to return; full spring. I personally would hate that. I hope you're correct and we get some more legitimate chances.

Not on this board. Some claim they like the warm over the cold but we know better. If it was 70 and sunny day after day, the panic/complain room would be brutal. 

[Eric]

It's disconcerting to see rain chances dwindling for Monday.  The Central Carolinas up into Virginia are in dire need of rain.  I have a client in Monroe, NC who has received less than four inches of rain since the beginning of September.

[packbacker]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

^ Ventrice isn't a hype-ster.  Heck, I don't even know if he likes cold 

The one he created for December, back in mid Nov, pretty much nailed December pattern.  

[Cold Rain]

1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

Not on this board. Some claim they like the warm over the cold but we know better. If it was 70 and sunny day after day, the panic/complain room would be brutal. 

Yes sir!  I’m loving every second of this cold.  Stay cold as long as you want, old man winter.  The way I figure, it can be cold for 25% of the year.  The other 75% is fine to be warm.

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

Yes sir!  I’m loving every second of this cold.  Stay cold as long as you want, old man winter.  The way I figure, it can be cold for 25% of the year.  The other 75% is fine to be warm.

After the last two "winters" I am loving every second of this cold snap.

[cbmclean]

There was discussion about the NAO a bit earlier.  Got this interesting time series from the CPC.  The current positive regime doesn't seem to be quite as bad as 1989-1993.

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

9 hours ago, mrdaddyman said:

This is a pretty good read for the upcoming pattern if you are interested:

http://www.stormhamster.com/e010518.htm

Pretty cool, and good recap of the storm that just came through. And I didn't think I could feel any worse about missing out on it...

[Jonathan]

GFS with a massive jump south WRT the 1/13 system.

From cutting up the Apps thru NY state to now forming in the Gulf and riding up thru Savannah-Columbia-Jacksonville NC-DelMarVa with a 1044HP in eastern Canada.

[WarmNose]

13 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

GFS with a massive jump south WRT the 1/13 system.

From cutting up the Apps thru NY state to now forming in the Gulf and riding up thru Savannah-Columbia-Jacksonville NC-DelMarVa with a 1044HP in eastern Canada.

Very strong front. Almost a 30 degree temperature difference in the Florida panhandle from Pensacola to Talahasse at 18z Friday 

[FallsLake]

CMC at day 10 actually looks good. Still a big question on what happens after this time period.

 

[franklin NCwx]

The pattern relaxes before it reloads similar to what it did in December.  After our early snowstorm the models showed a massive torch for the rest of the month that only ended up with a week of above normal. The mjo, epo, and some hints of a -ao look promising. 

[mackerel_sky]

1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

CMC at day 10 actually looks good. Still a big question on what happens after this time period.

 

It's going SE and supressed. If these waves don't come into Cali, we are just going to keep whiffing 

[FallsLake]

12 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

It's going SE and supressed. If these waves don't come into Cali, we are just going to keep whiffing 

I agree about the storm/wave. But I was focused on the NA pattern of highs coming down from NW Canada. You would think we stay cold with that look. 

[mackerel_sky]

23 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

I agree about the storm/wave. But I was focused on the NA pattern of highs coming down from NW Canada. You would think we stay cold with that look. 

Yeah, good point. Any other models have that look? 1054 highs dropping down again! If the thaw lasts only 5-12 days, that would be great!

[packbacker]

1 hour ago, franklin NCwx said:

The pattern relaxes before it reloads similar to what it did in December.  After our early snowstorm the models showed a massive torch for the rest of the month that only ended up with a week of above normal. The mjo, epo, and some hints of a -ao look promising. 

This is out there but GEFS has that look...ridging into AK, trough spilling into the plains.   Also, so far the trop PV isn’t consolidating, still fragmented per GEFS. 

[Cold Rain]

Looking strictly at the OPs, the CMC and Euro both still look cool at D10.  The GFS overnight runs look better to me at the end of their ranges than the last day or two in terms of building cold back over in our hemisphere.  The next 10-15 days look variable to me with a slight warm lean, after we get past Monday.  After that, it’s possible that we might jump warmer for a week or so, but I generally think we’ll remain variable to cool the rest of the winter.  I think the calls for an extended, possibly permanent flip to warm will end up busting this year.

[WarmNose]

51 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

It's going SE and supressed. If these waves don't come into Cali, we are just going to keep whiffing 

I believe a month or 2 ago before all of this cold moved in I made a comment here about how "if our storm isn't entering the conus in Southern California it's going to be hard to score." And people called me crazy. Well, we see how that played out