griteater Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: There's also a lot of borderline soundings, where his algorithm is counting as snow, but there's no point splitting hairs at this point. When it comes down to forecasting closer to the event, it's probably better not to rely on snow maps, but do qpf frame by frame with precip type based on soundings. Gotcha, but verbatim that's a snow sounding, so I'm good with his output there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, griteater said: Here's the 500mb trend on the last 3 runs of the 12z EPS Mean when our storm wave is in a similar location over the southern plains. Note the trend in the height lines over northern Ohio / NY State / Pennsylvania - the height lines are trending from westerly to more west-northwest. That subtle difference is a key trend and a good trend for acting to keep our storm wave and associated surface low on a bit of a more southerly track, yielding a colder and more wintry solution for parts of our subforum. In contrast, if these height lines over NY state trend from westerly to more west-southwesterly, that opens the door for the storm to climb north. There is a bit more ridging poking into Greenland which helps as well (all subtle differences that are key). Grit, what about the high pressure system (I’m referring to the HP on the 18z GEFS) that’s around the WI, IA, IL area. Is it correct to think that has an influence in not allowing the primary to gain latitude? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Walmartsl, Lidl, and Aldi here in town is already sold out of water, bread, milk, and eggs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Well, it will be an interesting week of model watching here in E NC. I can't wait to find out if we are going to get cold rain, cool rain, or warm rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 16 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Grit, what about the high pressure system (I’m referring to the HP on the 18z GEFS) that’s around the WI, IA, IL area. Is it correct to think that has an influence in not allowing the primary to gain latitude? The upper level features and evolution will largely drive the placement and movement of the surface highs and lows...but yes, a stronger high with strong damming will have more influence on how / when / where the surface low transfers to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 00z GFS is running. Only like 30 minutes before it's out far enough to know what's going to happen. And only about 26 more runs before the event. Hoo boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 hour ago, WidreMann said: 00z GFS is running. Only like 30 minutes before it's out far enough to know what's going to happen. And only about 26 more runs before the event. Hoo boy. This is going to be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 That's the wrong map to show. The shortwaves are flatter and weaker this run, all three behind the big one coming through tomorrow and Monday. Not sure if it's because we're getting into that time frame when models lose storms, or something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 ICON looks like it might be good at 165 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: This is going to be a problem. Yeah, it’s the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: ICON looks like it might be good at 165 Icon has a stout 1037HP preceding the storm in eastern WV. Gotta love that for sure with moisture already on the doorstep of the NC mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Just now, Buddy1987 said: Icon has a stout 1037HP preceding the storm in eastern WV. Gotta love that for sure with moisture already on the doorstep of the NC mountains. It was like it hit a wall though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Just now, Queencitywx said: It was like it hit a wall though. It's called the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, WidreMann said: It's called the mountains. And low dewpoints I’m sure with an airmass like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 4 hours ago, kvegas-wx said: Dont think that was it Widre because we were in the 40's and 50's leading up to that at KGSO. No HP in place pre-storm. This event as modeled has the HP in place starting on Friday. I agree with Buddy, I think this has to end up a slider if that banana HP is parked and cant understand why the GFS wants to run these systems into a brick wall. Maybe Dec 2002? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 GFS is juiced up and ready to take off at 138. Impressive qpf map at 0z much broader expansion on the northern side of the storm up into KS and NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 9 hours ago, burrel2 said: I'm here... pretty excited about the potential, but trying not to get too amped up yet. We've got another few days before we know if it's a real threat or not. The pattern certainly looks conducive. Good to see you. Yeah, I'm trying to stay realistic despite all the clown maps, looks like we'd be on the edge as usual. I am liking our pattern as well though. Even though I tire of all the cold rain, you have to think we'll get some good shots this year, even at a big dog, if the November pattern holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: GFS is juiced up and ready to take off at 138. Impressive qpf map at 0z much broader expansion on the northern side of the storm up into KS and NE. Looks too juiced at 138 - as in it should come north of 18z. We’ll see soon. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Also to add, GFS is worlds faster comparing it to 18z with ejecting the storm eastward. Hr 150 has the storm into western MS, whereas 18z still had it back over southern TX snow developing at hr 156 0z in NC mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Much faster, which should be better, with the positioning of the High Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Just now, Buddy1987 said: Also to add, GFS is worlds faster comparing it to 17z with ejecting the storm eastward. Hr 150 has the storm into western MS, whereas 18z still had it back over southern TX Yup. Snowing around Charlotte by 12z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 The high doesn't have as much support and is tilted back towards the west rather than being a proper banana high. The downstream trough is also a little weather, so confluence will be as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 4 hours ago, packfan98 said: Yep! The low tracked pretty much due east instead of cutting. Many ensembles have had a similar look. Here's the overblown clown map: Jan 88, what was that... a flurry or something? Wow, as pretty as that is its kinda sad our new "state of the art" model can print something like that out, it really is DGEX like, almost comical. If only! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Considerably warmer at 156 at surface, but then considerably colder at 162. Nice surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 No doubt about this run if it comes in much faster the front end thump will be great for a lot of folks. That high is still in a good spot when moisture first moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Low is much further north and east than 18z. Not a good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, WidreMann said: The high doesn't have as much support and is tilted back towards the west rather than being a proper banana high. The downstream trough is also a little weather, so confluence will be as well. Still, seems like an improvement, with the possibility of a transfer, much like the FV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Canadian is way NW if it’s 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, WidreMann said: Low is much further north and east than 18z. Not a good trend. Yay! I love miller B’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, WidreMann said: Considerably warmer at 156 at surface, but then considerably colder at 162. Nice surprise. I will say for your backyard specifically it’s not the greatest with the primary but so long as the primary transfers at 162 in south central TN it will lock in winter precip for the northern zones of the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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