Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

[Orangeburgwx]

6 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Again just for fun, but check out Pivotal weather snow depth at day 264. Shows your area with some decent snow. This type of setup can produce for eastern areas of the Carolinas. Too bad the look is not for a few days out.  

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php

 

Nope, I get left out since the snow stops dead on the Orangeburg/Calhoun county line... I come up empty unless the CAD overcomes the model (again)

[FallsLake]

2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Nope, I get left out since the snow stops dead on the Orangeburg/Calhoun county line... I come up empty unless the CAD overcomes the model (again)

Yep, when I responded to you I was thinking about Goldman (Myrtle Beach). 

Still at this range anything that's being depicted will end up different if a secondary storm even develops. We just want to see cold and a storm signal somewhere in our area right now. 

[SnowNiner]

On 11/20/2018 at 5:45 PM, Poimen said:

Don't look now but the 18Z Goofy is cooking up some (possible) fun at day 10.  

Great to see the EURO join the party, seems like it peaked the NWS interest in next weekend.....

Incidentally, the fcst gets real interesting
starting late Friday with a srn stream system taking shape over the
srn Plains and a cold continental high dropping down over the nrn
Plains/Midwest. The model guidance has been going back and forth
between the precip arriving before the cold air late Friday and
Saturday like the GFS, or the cold air spilling in Friday night
before the precip comes in early Saturday like the ECMWF. The
latter would raise the possibility of a wintry precip event next
weekend. Who will win the race? Stay tuned!

[BornAgain13]

06z GEFS Mean Definitely went up. 

[Buddy1987]

44 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

06z GEFS Mean Definitely went up. 

I like this post because rather than looking at any individual GFS or Euro or FV3 run the mean ensembles of these suites will paint the picture and right now the picture being painted is a great one for a lot imo! 

[Orangeburgwx]

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A drier and colder air mass will build into the area on Tuesday
as a de-amplifying upper trough crosses the forecast area. A
second upper trough will move across the Ohio Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday which will bring a reinforcing shot of
cold air to the region through Thursday. Surface high pressure
will be transient and shift off the coast by Friday with zonal
westerly 500mb flow, and this will allow for a slight warm up to
end the work week.

The next storm system will develop over the Plains on Friday
with low pressure developing over the lower Mississippi Valley
and spreading moisture into our area just beyond the forecast
period.

Temperatures will be near normal on Tuesday then fall below
normal on Wed/Thu before warming back on to near normal on
Friday.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

We preach this every winter..... "Look at the ensembles for better long range forecasts. The Op runs will flip and flop at those longer lead times". IMO it really gives you a better idea of what the model trends are. Once you get inside of that 3-5 day window, then the operational runs become more important.

[CADEffect]

12 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

We preach this every winter..... "Look at the ensembles for better long range forecasts. The Op runs will flip and flop at those longer lead times". IMO it really gives you a better idea of what the model trends are. Once you get inside of that 3-5 day window, then the operational runs become more important.

Where can I find the ensembles?

[HKY1894]

Very notable increase in snowfall on 6z gefs compared to prior runs nearly double it appears.

 

South/Central Va looking pretty good at this lead time. Farther south still questionable due to temps. Pure southern stream waves are much more predictable than chance of no storm is very slim right now. Similar to 09-10 in that regard.

[Iceagewhereartthou]

3 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Nope, I get left out since the snow stops dead on the Orangeburg/Calhoun county line... I come up empty unless the CAD overcomes the model (again)

Don't worry, that particular solution would be a spirit crusher for the upstate too. Too warm for the first piece of energy, too far west for the coastal low! I think we all have the best chance with the slower lower Miller A look. As someone else mentioned, need that low to be low and weak - track around or just off the gulf coast at about 1010 or 1008, need that high to stay put. 

[NC_hailstorm]

Lower heights on the 0z Euro,at 132 it has the 562dm line coming through S. central NC.

Ukie looks a tick better at 132 with that more through the upstate,GFS flared off and went warmer but i don't watch that beyond day 5 anyways.

[griteater]

The northern stream shortwave that rolls thru Alaska at the beginning of the loop, then dives down into Saskatchewan > Great Lakes > SE Canada > Newfoundland - that's the key feature that tries to suppress our southern low.  We want that shortwave to dive boldly into the Great Lakes and over to Maine.  This is where a stout W Canada ridge and Greenland ridging helps.  Without it, that northern stream shortwave doesn't dig as much as needed, and we don't get the necessary suppression to the height field along the east coast out ahead of our storm wave as it moves from California east into Texas.

[gearhead302]

4 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Nope, I get left out since the snow stops dead on the Orangeburg/Calhoun county line... I come up empty unless the CAD overcomes the model (again)

Hang it up.  Not gonna happen.  This will produce a cold rain for the midlands of SC.  That's always been the case ....central and western NC will get the most winter precipitation,  just like always.  To expect any different is foolish

[Orangeburgwx]

2 minutes ago, gearhead302 said:

Hang it up.  Not gonna happen.  This will produce a cold rain for the midlands of SC.  That's always been the case ....central and western NC will get the most winter precipitation,  just like always.  To expect any different is foolish

Not going to give up until the day of

[ajr]

Don't think this run is going to cut it -- looks like the northern and southern wave are interacting more coming in from the Pacific/SW Canada around hr 102. Edit: Nevermind, I think I'm wrong... this could be good...  

[Waiting on snow]

11 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Not going to give up until the day of

Hope you have a prescription of xanax handy for winter then. Gonna be a long one for ya. After living in CAE for 5 years and Orangeburg being further se I'd keep my expectations very low.

[Buckethead]

1 minute ago, Waiting on snow said:

Hope you have a prescription of xanax handy for winter then. Gonna be a long one for ya. After living in CAE for 5 years and Orangeburg being further se I'd keep my expectations very low.

I lived in Southern Lexington County for 25 years.  Hoping for winter weather down there (especially this early) is a recipe for ulcers.  I feel your pain, Oburg.

 

[griteater]

12z CMC is a big winter storm for our sub forum 

[BornAgain13]

Just now, griteater said:

12z CMC is a big winter storm for our sub forum 

Awesome!!

[griteater]

12z GFS looks pretty terrible 

[ajr]

Just now, griteater said:

12z GFS looks pretty terrible 

Looks like the cold air is already mostly gone by the time the storm shows up

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

The euro gave me a foot and the Canadian just told it to hold my beer I’ll give you two feet. 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

GFS is actually colder in the CAD regions this run. It’s tryin to get there. 

[jjwxman]

We’ve all seen this before, the GFS is always the first on the table, mainly because it runs 15 days, then loses it, then brings it back within the 3-4 day timeframe. But let’s forget that 12z GFS, how about that 12z CMC run?!!  lol

[Buddy1987]

8 minutes ago, griteater said:

12z GFS looks pretty terrible 

The GFS smoked crack before it ran. It’s ridiculous how much it jumps around like a floppy fish out of water. It should be completely discounted right now based on other model guidance. 

[Waiting on snow]

39 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

I lived in Southern Lexington County for 25 years.  Hoping for winter weather down there (especially this early) is a recipe for ulcers.  I feel your pain, Oburg.

 

Definitely! But always close enough to the action to be excited but 99% of the time you'll be banging your head against the wall when it's over!

[Buckethead]

16 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

Definitely! But always close enough to the action to be excited but 99% of the time you'll be banging your head against the wall when it's over!

I'm much better off 4400' up. 

[BornAgain13]

12z GEFS still different from the OP. Widespread Winter Storm. 

[CADEffect]

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

12z GEFS still different from the OP. Widespread Winter Storm. 

pic?

[Buddy1987]

FV3 drives the primary into eastern Missouri before it pops the secondary just off Myrtle. Good cad signature prior to the storm. Wintry mix for portions of northern NC and snowy look for mountains before changeover and then up into SW VA and further north.