jjwxman Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 2 hours ago, Waiting on snow said: Hideous run on the FV3 also. Low goes from north MS to off the ne coast. How does FV3 figure this will happen from that run? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, jjwxman said: How does FV3 figure this will happen from that run? Lol Same way it gave us all a record snow storm last time it was 33 and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 43 minutes ago, jjwxman said: How does FV3 figure this will happen from that run? Lol Stock 10:1 with winter wx flag set but just guessing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Interested to see how this plays out, FV3 has consistently migrated towards more of a cutter or Miller b in last 4 model cycles. But eps and gefs look more like a classic Miller a type storm. Feel like early December climo favors WNC if we get Miller A look. Timing of the high pressure vs the storm will be key as well. We are far from final solution no matter what the outcome. Many more opportunities later in December and early January when forcing becomes more favorable for Aleutian low/+PNA pattern + more favorable climo . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Gonna be much more intense system on 00z gfs than 18z looks warm we will see if HP over Midwest can move east for CAD . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Our best storms come at the beginning or end of a pattern change! I’ll take my Dec ice storm and then torch until January Oh you'll torch until January and like it! Still undecided about your ice storm though!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 looking like 12z euro lots o cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: Oh you'll torch until January and like it! Still undecided about your ice storm though!! 0z = cold rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 I get baked with 70s and rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: 0z = cold rain! Yep right in line with the Euro and FV3. Good thing the op runs are useless and we still have the ensembles! At least for a couple more hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Waiting on snow said: Yep right in line with the Euro and FV3. Good thing the op runs are useless and we still have the ensembles! At least for a couple more hours! Yeah, the ensembles will save us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: Yep right in line with the Euro and FV3. Good thing the op runs are useless and we still have the ensembles! At least for a couple more hours days! FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: I get baked with 70s and rain... Good!! Means I may have 60 and rain. Beats 33 and rain anytime! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 As usual, subtle changes in the height pattern make this an upper south vs mid-atlantic vs northeast storm. Pretty amazing how it’s there though run after run. El Niño with a stout southern wave in split flow yields higher predictability (compared for example to northern stream waves diving down in fast flow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 As usual, subtle changes in the height pattern make this an upper south vs mid-atlantic vs northeast storm. Pretty amazing how it’s there though run after run. El Niño with a stout southern wave in split flow yields higher predictability (compared for example to northern stream waves diving down in fast flow)It appears the confluence in the north begins to move out as shortwave moves eastward. The speed of the s/w will be key to low track it appears. If the low is inland over GA this will be a mid-Atlantic storm. No way any model will get timing right this far out........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 36 minutes ago, HKY1894 said: It appears the confluence in the north begins to move out as shortwave moves eastward. The speed of the s/w will be key to low track it appears. If the low is inland over GA this will be a mid-Atlantic storm. No way any model will get timing right this far out...... Yeah and if you go back and look at the 18z run, when our wave moves into west Texas, the 500mb height lines to our north are running from Chicago to DC. On the 00z run at the same wave location, the height lines are running from Chicago to New York City. That difference is all it takes to get the low and associated warming to climb north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 0z euro is a huge hit for western part of NC 32 degree line is just west of CLT when heavy precip moves in. Not looking at soundings this far out but Weatherbell snow map is drool worthy for my area. Looks like classic miller A El Niño storm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 00z Euro... Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 1 hour ago, HKY1894 said: 0z euro is a huge hit for western part of NC 32 degree line is just west of CLT when heavy precip moves in. Not looking at soundings this far out but Weatherbell snow map is drool worthy for my area. Looks like classic miller A El Niño storm . Why am I not surprised? We lose the GFS and gain the Euro. They are like an old married couple and can't agree on anything! But seriously though I'll take the Euro at this range. As I stated yesterday it's time for the Euro op to hit if this threat is for real! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 I85 crush job on Dr Yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 The 6z GFS is colder (then 0z) for the start of the storm. CAD is stronger and large parts of NC start as snow before turning to rain. We still want it colder (longer lasting CAD) but definitely a great trend this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Lol..then after the first storm passes and pulls cold air down, a secondary low forms off the coast and provides a nice snow storm for central and eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, FallsLake said: Lol..then after the first storm passes and pulls cold air down, a secondary low forms off the coast and provides a nice snow storm for central and eastern NC. Even gets some snow and ice to the Myrtle beach area. Not expecting anything, but still encouraging to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, goldman75 said: Even gets some snow and ice to the Myrtle beach area. Not expecting anything, but still encouraging to see. Yep, here you go (but at this time range this is fantasy/banter): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 23 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Yep, here you go (but at this time range this is fantasy/banter): *angry disappointed growling* Freaking snow holed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 A small note from RAH: Southerly flow returns late in the period as a southern stream disturbance looks to gather strength and make a run toward the eastern CONUS over the weekend, with some early indications of a wintry mix possible. Be sure to check back later this week for more on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: *angry disappointed growling* Again just for fun, but check out Pivotal weather snow depth at day 264. Shows your area with some decent snow. This type of setup can produce for eastern areas of the Carolinas. Too bad the look is not for a few days out. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 FV3 was all rain and warm again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 18z FV3-GFS basically the same as 0z. Northern VA and DC love this look. Interesting though, it does show that secondary low. Much rather see the first system produce for us but it's nice to have secondary options/hopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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