Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

[mackerel_sky]

7 minutes ago, packbacker said:

5 members on the 18z GEFS have snow down in the Carolina's day 8-10.  This is the most fun one...

Based on past 4 storms, it's right where we want it! SE trend is real!

[Cold Rain]

Pack, you know that cutoff line right through wake means the snow will be confined to the Triad.

[No snow for you]

1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

Pack, you know that cutoff line right through wake means the snow will be confined to the Triad.

They have programmed the wake snow shield into the models i see.

[Cold Rain]

2 minutes ago, No snow for you said:

They have programmed the wake snow shield into the models i see.

Yes they have.

[Cold Rain]

Anybody got a read on the Weeklies? Haven’t heard anything, so I assume they’re toasty after the first week.

[packbacker]

32 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Anybody got a read on the Weeklies? Haven’t heard anything, so I assume they’re toasty after the first week.

Edit:  Just realized...weeklies are freely available here.

http://wx.graphics/models/eps/eps.php

 

[packbacker]

Before winter started I think we all hoped these analogs would show up...so far it's a good match through the first 5 weeks.  Interesting that all 5 of these analogs had a big winter storm in Feb...2001 was kind of weak but I would take it.

[calculus1]

1 hour ago, Eric said:

Interesting distribution of snowfall throughout the South so far this season.

You can really see the results of lake effect snow on this map up in the Great Lakes Region.  It's also pretty crazy that it's snowed all the way down to the Mexico border in basically all of Texas, and yet portions of Kansas and Missouri have yet to see any measurable snowfall.  That early December snowstorm path is very evident through the southeast, as is the recent New Year's storm:  two storms and two different swaths, essentially mutually exclusive of each other.

[packbacker]

So weeklies show a flip here...week 4, trough in the sw but they have been doing that all winter in the extended when they had a -EPO.

[Cold Rain]

Awesome, thank you sir!

[Iceagewhereartthou]

18 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

You can really see the results of lake effect snow on this map up in the Great Lakes Region.  It's also pretty crazy that it's snowed all the way down to the Mexico border in basically all of Texas, and yet portions of Kansas and Missouri have yet to see any measurable snowfall.  That early December snowstorm path is very evident through the southeast, as is the recent New Year's storm:  two storms and two different swaths, essentially mutually exclusive of each other.

Thanks for posting this, I've been wondering about what this would look like. How about the snow hole over Nebraskahoma? So how many times in history have the entire Texas /Mexico border had snow (as you pointed out), AND the entire gulf coast from Brownsville to Gulf Breeze had measurable snow in a winter, let alone by the First week of Jan!

The other takeaway; it pays to be above 2000ft in elevation or above 40 N latitude (captain obvious).

[Cold Rain]

The 192ish hour period is about the only thing of interest I see in the LR.  The GFS (both the 0z and 6z) and the Euro has a storm moving in in tandem with a strengthening 1040ish high in a good damming spot.  But surface temps look to be in the 50s/60s and the low gets driven right through the "wedge" up east of the Apps.  The Canadian, has temps below freezing, but it moves the system in a day or so later with the high well offshore.  After that, don't bother looking.

[NC_hailstorm]

This so called La Nina is still getting chopped down,90 day average cut in half on the SOI.Could recover we'll see.

30 day 10.98 to -4.04

90 day 9.35 to 4.89

[mackerel_sky]

1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

The 192ish hour period is about the only thing of interest I see in the LR.  The GFS (both the 0z and 6z) and the Euro has a storm moving in in tandem with a strengthening 1040ish high in a good damming spot.  But surface temps look to be in the 50s/60s and the low gets driven right through the "wedge" up east of the Apps.  The Canadian, has temps below freezing, but it moves the system in a day or so later with the high well offshore.  After that, don't bother looking.

I love a good warm snow! Rates will over come the marginal boundary layer ( 50s /60s)

[Cold Rain]

21 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

This so called La Nina is still getting chopped down,90 day average cut in half on the SOI.Could recover we'll see.

30 day 10.98 to -4.04

90 day 9.35 to 4.89

@NC_hailstorm

Hey man, how's the solar stuff looking these days?

[FallsLake]

12 hours ago, packbacker said:

So weeklies show a flip here...week 4, trough in the sw but they have been doing that all winter in the extended when they had a -EPO.

With no negative EPO the January Thaw has to be given a higher chance of verifying (as depicted). PNA and NAO look bad in the LR as well. But the next timeframe (week 5 to 6) may be our next and maybe our last real chance to score a big SE winter storm.

Hopefully as we get closer the EPO will stay negative longer. we've seen this happen in the past.  

[Cold Rain]

11 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

With no negative EPO the January Thaw has to be given a higher chance of verifying (as depicted). PNA and NAO look bad in the LR as well. But the next timeframe (week 5 to 6) may be our next and maybe our last real chance to score a big SE winter storm.

Hopefully as we get closer the EPO will stay negative longer. we've seen this happen in the past.  

Yeah, it's not too pretty for a while.  PNA looks to average positive, with a fall-off toward the end of the range.  The AO looks to average somewhat negative.  Those are both ok, but the arctic air looks to evacuate our side of the globe.  Of course, the NAO remains positive and will stay that way throughout the winter, regular as clockwork.  The EPO and WPO are going to be positive and the MJO looks to remain in the most unfavorable phases for the foreseeable future.  If we don't get a surprise event in the next 10 days, we should all meet at Pack's house and help lay down the preemergent.

[FallsLake]

Something else that is of interest to me is if we can end January below normal. In years past I've seen the SE CAD areas be able to stay closer to normal as a large area of the US torch. Instead of blazing SW or west winds, numerous CADs develop keeping this zone closer to normal. Nothing cold enough for frozen but cooler never the less. 

Below is the first example (NAM) for this upcoming Monday. looking at the GFS it would have 3 or 4 weak CAD events through the LR.

 

 

[griteater]

39 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

@NC_hailstorm

Hey man, how's the solar stuff looking these days?

Solar has been rather quiet since mid November...solar wind/Ap Index have both been quite low.  QBO is fine too - it's actually a very close match to 2009-2010.  AO for Dec was -0.059.  NAO was 0.73.  So, the AO has been right at neutral and the NAO has been positive.  It's a bit of a head scratcher...QBO and Solar have cooperated, but the NAO wants to remain positive.  Other factors at play I'm sure.  The strat PV strength has been up and down...it was a little weaker than normal in late Nov thru Dec...now it is a little stronger than normal

[NCSNOW]

15 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Something else that is of interest to me is if we can end January below normal. In years past I've seen the SE CAD areas be able to stay closer to normal as a large area of the US torch. Instead of blazing SW or west winds, numerous CADs develop keeping this zone closer to normal. Nothing cold enough for frozen but cooler never the less. 

Below is the first example (NAM) for this upcoming Monday. looking at the GFS it would have 3 or 4 weak CAD events through the LR.

 

 

It would take a heat wave like never seen before in Janary for RDU to end up above normal. By Monday Jan 7 RDU will be like 19 to 20 below normal with the month 1/4 complete. Pattern will warm up to normal, but no way to salvage JAN ending up AN. You can go ahead chalk 3 consecutive months BN for RDU. Feels historic to be typing such facts.

Biggest growing concern is precip as we get ready to start second half of winter. Drought breads heat/ remember that this summer. Need rain fall to pick back up

RDU hasn't been above freezing since last year!

[NC_hailstorm]

56 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

@NC_hailstorm

Hey man, how's the solar stuff looking these days?

Solar signal is about average,not great but not terrible,December numbers are still trending slowly down on solar wind and EEP.it has kept the AO and NAO from raging positive though so that's been ok.

2009-10 had a solar wind average around 330-340 and EEP levels around 4.5 to 5,this year we're about at 400 with EEP levels around 6.5 to 7,5

Next couple years should be really good on solar if the research is right but the QBO might flip bad.

[NCSNOW]

Saw this on Rays for the MTn folk. Really Historic Cold Snap we are having in these parts. Want get the all time record lows, but the duration is something to behold. Raleigh set to break consecutive day streak below freezing). Heres one for Boone

 

Memorable Cold Stretch

We are in the midst of a memorable cold stretch. We only had time to run these numbers for Boone, but historically, these are the longest span of consecutive days with high temperatures less than or equal to 20° (the respective highs in parenthesis):
January 17-21, 1977 (9, 12, 10, 20, 16)
January 3-6, 2010 (16, 17, 16, 17)
December 22-25, 1989 (16, 11, 18, 19)
January 23-25, 2014 (20, 19, 20)
February 4-6, 1996 (11, 3, 20)
December 24-26, 1995 (19, 17, 20)
February 17-19, 1958 (5, 8, 16)
Today will be 2 days in a row at or below 20. We think Saturday will make 3. That puts us in relatively rare territory. Snow showers and flurries continue today. Windy conditions end Saturday morning. Bitter cold lasts through Sunday morning. Clouds increase late Sunday. A wintry mix changing to rain is expected Monday. 

 

 

As a Cold weather fan gonna enjoy it before the pattern changes and the Flame throwers come out in full force! LOL

[Cold Rain]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Solar has been rather quiet since mid November...solar wind/Ap Index have both been quite low.  QBO is fine too - it's actually a very close match to 2009-2010.  AO for Dec was -0.059.  NAO was 0.73.  So, the AO has been right at neutral and the NAO has been positive.  It's a bit of a head scratcher...QBO and Solar have cooperated, but the NAO wants to remain positive.  Other factors at play I'm sure.  The strat PV strength has been up and down...it was a little weaker than normal in late Nov thru Dec...now it is a little stronger than normal

 

49 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Solar signal is about average,not great but not terrible,December numbers are still trending slowly down on solar wind and EEP.it has kept the AO and NAO from raging positive though so that's been ok.

2009-10 had a solar wind average around 330-340 and EEP levels around 4.5 to 5,this year we're about at 400 with EEP levels around 6.5 to 7,5

Next couple years should be really good on solar if the research is right but the QBO might flip bad.

Good stuff, guys.  Thanks.  Would really suck to have good solar and a bad QBO flip.  At this point, I'm not sure it really matters all that much in the end.  The NAO will never average negative again in the winter.  That seems to be pretty much set in stone.

[mrdaddyman]

1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

Yeah, it's not too pretty for a while.  PNA looks to average positive, with a fall-off toward the end of the range.  The AO looks to average somewhat negative.  Those are both ok, but the arctic air looks to evacuate our side of the globe.  Of course, the NAO remains positive and will stay that way throughout the winter, regular as clockwork.  The EPO and WPO are going to be positive and the MJO looks to remain in the most unfavorable phases for the foreseeable future.  If we don't get a surprise event in the next 10 days, we should all meet at Pack's house and help lay down the preemergent.

Is there some logical reason behind why we have not been able to get an -NAO lately? Is it just because we haven't been in a pattern that will allow it? Hasn't it been several years since we have gotten a sustained one?

[SnowGoose69]

18 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said:

Is there some logical reason behind why we have not been able to get an -NAO lately? Is it just because we haven't been in a pattern that will allow it? Hasn't it been several years since we have gotten a sustained one?

It’s entiry possible it’s a climate change issue due to melting of ice in that area.  The same impact over on the Pac side could by why the massive EPO ridge is making appearances the last 4-5 years.  I’m not sure who, but one of the well known Mets predicted this 6/8 years ago that NATL blocking would become a thing of the past and the EPO ridge would start to become dominant over the next decade.

Furthermore, the massive EPO ridge pattern feedback to make a -NAO difficult to achieve.  I would have to find it but DT had a good video once explaining why when you have the big 93-94 13-14 pattern it’s virtually impossible to get a -NAO because of the downstream impact over eastern Canada from the -EPO  

[mrdaddyman]

17 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It’s entiry possible it’s a climate change issue due to melting of ice in that area.  The same impact over on the Pac side could by why the massive EPO ridge is making appearances the last 4-5 years.  I’m not sure who, but one of the well known Mets predicted this 6/8 years ago that NATL blocking would become a thing of the past and the EPO ridge would start to become dominant over the next decade.

Furthermore, the massive EPO ridge pattern feedback to make a -NAO difficult to achieve.  I would have to find it but DT had a good video once explaining why when you have the big 93-94 13-14 pattern it’s virtually impossible to get a -NAO because of the downstream impact over eastern Canada from the -EPO  

Thanks for the info! If that actually turns out to be the case then central NC is screwed when it comes to getting a good snowfall anymore unless things change back in that area in the future. With no blocking we get cutter after cutter. Folks say we don't need to have a -NAO to score here but my past 3+ winters of less that 1" of snowfall per winter speak for themselves.

[Cold Rain]

Brutal:

[mrdaddyman]

2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Brutal:

Nothing like 70's in the middle of January when you are a snow lover.

[Cold Rain]

^ That is one UGLY pattern.

Now, if you show me this surface map, I'd swear the ptype depiction is way wrong, given that very nice HP placement:

 

It's just beautiful.  We should be getting a winter storm.  But nope.  Not this year.  Not even close.  Strange winter indeed:

[FallsLake]

2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

^ That is one UGLY pattern.

Now, if you show me this surface map, I'd swear the ptype depiction is way wrong, given that very nice HP placement:

 

It's just beautiful.  We should be getting a winter storm.  But nope.  Not this year.  Not even close.  Strange winter indeed:

Day 9/10 may be another shot before the warm up. You're right, the above look would keep the low more suppressed or at least have a CAD (Miller B).