griteater Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Regardless of outcome, this is a good look on the 12z GFS with wave in Texas and cutoff low over Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 hello! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 GFS out to 207....ice deep into N GA, low in N Gulf, 1040+ high in PA/NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 icy cad storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Too much sfc warming shown on the 12z GFS given the setup. But it's a drawn out prolonged event. 12z CMC also had a prolonged event, but was warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Lots of ice in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Looks icy as modeled - CAD at the surface with SE winds at the 850 level when precipitation is building Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, ajr said: Looks icy as modeled - CAD at the surface with SE winds at the 850 level when precipitation is building I think that is still too warm, its going to be colder than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gearhead302 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 11 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: I think that is still too warm, its going to be colder than that Care to elaborate on the climatology you're using for this hypothesis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 12z GFS Ens Mean looks quite good. Healthy storm moving across the N Gulf, then off the SE coast on the mean with sfc high to the north. Should be some good members in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 7 minutes ago, gearhead302 said: Care to elaborate on the climatology you're using for this hypothesis? CAD is never forecasted right, it always overperforms vs. the models (while in actuality, the models under perform). In addition, both the GEFS and EPS have been in lockstep that the low runs up the coast while over water, not barreling up through the sand hills like has been constantly shown. Going the ensemble track, the warm air influx is greatly reduced, leading to more cold over a larger area and giving local forecasters one hell of a headache. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 I just need the LP about 250 miles SE of current GFS track. Is that so much to ask? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 FV3 GFS is north with the low, warmer, with retreating sfc high...yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, Jaguars said: I just need the LP about 250 miles SE of current GFS track. Is that so much to ask? 250 is a longgggggg way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Just now, griteater said: FV3 GFS is north with the low, warmer, with retreating sfc high...yuck Toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 12z GEFS looks better with the track of the low -- HP up north is a little sketchy though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 11 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: CAD is never forecasted right, it always overperforms vs. the models (while in actuality, the models under perform). In addition, both the GEFS and EPS have been in lockstep that the low runs up the coast while over water, not barreling up through the sand hills like has been constantly shown. Going the ensemble track, the warm air influx is greatly reduced, leading to more cold over a larger area and giving local forecasters one hell of a headache. Yes ensembles are the way to go. Not deterministic models. The CAD is highly dependent on the high to the north. And without blocking that high has to be positioned perfectly and 8 days out is way too far to know that in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Good trend here on the 12z GEFS Mean. Sfc low on the mean is over N FL (on today's run - last loop image) with improving high pressure to the north. Trend is later/slower with the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, griteater said: Good trend here on the 12z GEFS Mean. Sfc low on the mean is over N FL (on today's run) with improving high pressure to the north. Trend is later/slower with the low Good set up for a monster storm for both Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 12z Euro cuts the low into N Bama. It has a nice sfc high to the north running in tandem with the sfc low, but it's missing the closed 500mb low over Maine to keep the height field where it can suppress the sfc low like the GFS. FV3 GFS and Euro vs. GFS - not too good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: 12z Euro cuts the low into N Bama. It has a nice sfc high to the north running in tandem with the sfc low, but it's missing the closed 500mb low over Maine to keep the height field where it can suppress the sfc low like the GFS. FV3 GFS and Euro vs. GFS - not too good And they almost never come back once they go north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, griteater said: 12z Euro cuts the low into N Bama. It has a nice sfc high to the north running in tandem with the sfc low, but it's missing the closed 500mb low over Maine to keep the height field where it can suppress the sfc low like the GFS. FV3 GFS and Euro vs. GFS - not too good Not quite sure I understand you... this Euro run looks good to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Not quite sure I understand you... this Euro run looks good to me... It does look good for Roanoke to Lynchburg and north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Just now, griteater said: It does look good for Roanoke to Lynchburg and north And Dry Fork! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 The Euro Ensembles have been spot on. It looks like the OP took a step towards them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 13 minutes ago, griteater said: 12z Euro cuts the low into N Bama. It has a nice sfc high to the north running in tandem with the sfc low, but it's missing the closed 500mb low over Maine to keep the height field where it can suppress the sfc low like the GFS. FV3 GFS and Euro vs. GFS - not too good There hasn't been a good EURO run yet for the Carolinas, but the ENS has been steady with the low in the gulf with some high pressure overhead pressing in. My guess it'll be the same today. I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan80963 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 This euro run looked faster than the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 12Z EPS stays on the more southern route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, jjwxman said: 12Z EPS stays on the more southern route. EPS&GFS vs. FV3&EURO... Talk about worse case... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: EPS&GFS vs. FV3&EURO... Talk about worse case... Euro op ain’t what it used to be! Far from king anymore! 8 days out, lots of changes coming. Strength of the high to the North, will be crucial! The stronger, the more cold and more southerly track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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