Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

[mackerel_sky]

3 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

Where is packbacker?

He’s been MIA for like 2 years!? I think he now goes by accu35!

[mackerel_sky]

2 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

2" is not a significant event. There has only been two warning criteria events at PTI before 12/10 since, well, a very long time. 

That December 2002 event, may have been 90% sleet and ZR, I think CLT and N and NE of there , got a burst of heavy snow at onset? It was still a significant event! I never saw 1 snowflake, but was the worst ice storm I have ever seen!

[Iceagewhereartthou]

3 hours ago, GunBlade said:

CLT is an enigma that seems to take even more things going “just”right.  We are either just a few miles too SE to be cold enough to get a winter storm.  Or, we are just too far NW to get in on the main precip when we have the cold. 

I don’t have the data to verify but I’d wager that places like Shelby which is barely west from here gets more wintery  precip than us.  Or at least more storms where they get wintery precip.  

I myself am only about 15 miles (by car) from downtown CLT and there have been multiple times when CLT gets more than us.  Being SE has helped us a few times with coastal bombs as well though.  In general its normally either I-85 or I-77 though that is the dividing line and it’s usually a VERY sharp fall off.  And those merge in CLT.  Same happens with many CAD events.  

I’ve seen it snowing on upper levels of high rises but be raining at the ground level because the cold air is that close.  Very frustrating at times.

Try GSP sometime! CLT gets more than us bc you're closer to CAD s, closer to Atlantic moisture from Noreasters, and gets better timing with overrunning events, even though we're slightly higher elevation and only like 20 miles further south. GSP is a freaking snowhole for the ages compared to everyone around us (except south of course). For that CAE gets the dubious honor.

[Waiting on snow]

36 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Try GSP sometime! CLT gets more than us bc you're closer to CAD s, closer to Atlantic moisture from Noreasters, and gets better timing with overrunning events, even though we're slightly higher elevation and only like 20 miles further south. GSP is a freaking snowhole for the ages compared to everyone around us (except south of course). For that CAE gets the dubious honor.

Yeah CAE no doubt is horrible. I lived there 5 winters. 13-14 was my first and it gave me false hope. Every other year was a dumpster fire and looking back at records it's always been that way.

[Poimen]

Regardless if we get something in the medium range, the big positive in my mind is that we are starting this winter with some robust blocking. I think that’s a good signal for the winter as a whole. 

[cbmclean]

4 hours ago, Poimen said:

Regardless if we get something in the medium range, the big positive in my mind is that we are starting this winter with some robust blocking. I think that’s a good signal for the winter as a whole. 

My feelings exactly.

[GunBlade]

7 hours ago, Poimen said:

Regardless if we get something in the medium range, the big positive in my mind is that we are starting this winter with some robust blocking. I think that’s a good signal for the winter as a whole. 

Yea we’ve seen in years past that these things can be very stubborn to budge.  We chase the indices all winter as well only for them to not move in our favor.  Hopefully it’s the same when they are in our favor haha.  

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Name it and Claim it!

 

[DixieBlizzard]

So, Glenn Burns throws this on Facebook last night. He can't even get his description right (Calls colder temps a "blowtorch") and doesn't give any explanation that this isn't an official forecast. I thought @Lookout would appreciate this.

[Southern Track]

Still curious about the first few days of December.  The models are pretty consistent with a storm coming out of the gulf with the active southern branch. With the blocking retrograding you would hope the high pressure would be more stubborn then just scouring NE out to sea.

[Orangeburgwx]

1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Name it and Claim it!

 

No snow for me (about 200 miles off XD) but being so close so early gives me hope down the pipe

[Cold Rain]

1 hour ago, DixieBlizzard said:

So, Glenn Burns throws this on Facebook last night. He can't even get his description right (Calls colder temps a "blowtorch") and doesn't give any explanation that this isn't an official forecast. I thought @Lookout would appreciate this.

I'm not sure he was completely awake when he wrote that.  Something is confused in there somewhere.  The model has been forecasting a blowtorch winter all summer and fall.  Either it is coming in line with the rest of the seasonals and that's what he's pointing out, or it has been showing a blowtorch and continues to show a blowtorch, in which case it is correct and everything else is sucking.  I'm not entirely sure which option he's going with.

[BullCityWx]

I cant believe Ryan Maue would be so stupid as to post one of 51 euro ensemble members and at that, hour 300. 

[Cold Rain]

Clicks man, clicks.

Social media is pretty much a competition for clicks and likes, unfortunately.

[Thor]

Maybe something for the mountains

[griteater]

Pretty split flow pattern on the aftn Euro Ensemble (days 6-13).  Split flow wave 1 hits the west coast on day 9 (hr216) and wave 2 hits the west coast on day 11 (hr276), underneath west-based -NAO.

[griteater]

850mb temps same period

[BornAgain13]

33 minutes ago, griteater said:

850mb temps same period

That's a thing of beauty!

[Cold Rain]

Bring that same setup slightly farther south, later in December, and we’ll be in business big time.

[Poimen]

Don't look now but the 18Z Goofy is cooking up some (possible) fun at day 10.  

[strongwxnc]

Don't look now but the 18Z Goofy is cooking up some (possible) fun at day 10.  

Says don’t look. Cue looking.


.

[mackerel_sky]

1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

Bring that same setup slightly farther south, later in December, and we’ll be in business big time.

If you say the same thing, one more time!!! We get it! Everything is greater in January and February! You’re starting to look like Brad Fanovich

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Eric Webb‏ @webberweather 5h5 hours ago

 

 

This is about as classic of a synoptic setup as you'll ever see for in-situ CAD in the Carolinas. Some of the same areas affected by last week's ice storm and the blue ridge escarpment should closely monitor for light-moderate amounts of freezing rain Fri night & early Sat. #ncwx

[Cold Rain]

1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

If you say the same thing, one more time!!! We get it! Everything is greater in January and February! You’re starting to look like Brad Fanovich

I thought it was a reasonable point.

[mackerel_sky]

5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I thought it was a reasonable point.

It’s the South, we take whatever small chances we can, no matter what time of year! I get as excited about a sleet pellet in November , as a full blown blizzard in February! The chances of either , are 0.00013%!

[WeatherHawk]

1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Eric Webb‏ @webberweather 5h5 hours ago

 

 

This is about as classic of a synoptic setup as you'll ever see for in-situ CAD in the Carolinas. Some of the same areas affected by last week's ice storm and the blue ridge escarpment should closely monitor for light-moderate amounts of freezing rain Fri night & early Sat. #ncwx

Bring it on   IMO it's going to be a great winter with a lot to track

[JoshM]

11 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said:

Bring it on   IMO it's going to be a great winter with a lot to track

I concur... These CADs seem to be coming along weekly, that + no SER = I'll take my chances.

But in any event...

 

[FallsLake]

34 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

It’s the South, we take whatever small chances we can, no matter what time of year! I get as excited about a sleet pellet in November , as a full blown blizzard in February! The chances of either , are 0.00013%!

Hey mack, I understand what CR is saying. If you look at the latest day 10-12 on the 18z GFS you can see how the pattern is setup just too far to the north. The indices are looking great but we could easily still miss any winter storm chances in the next two weeks. We got to get those highs and lows just a little more south/east.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018112018&fh=222

    

[Cold Rain]

55 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

It’s the South, we take whatever small chances we can, no matter what time of year! I get as excited about a sleet pellet in November , as a full blown blizzard in February! The chances of either , are 0.00013%!

I hear you.  I’m not poo pooing the chances of snow or sleet.  I’m just saying what would be an awesome to have later in the winter.  Where we might squeak out a little surprise ice pellet now, we would clean up later.  That’s all I mean.

[Waiting on snow]

4 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Hey mack, I understand what CR is saying. If you look at the latest day 10-12 on the 18z GFS you can see how the pattern is setup just too far to the north. The indices are looking great but we could easily still miss any winter storm chances in the next two weeks. We got to get those highs and lows just a little more south/east.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018112018&fh=222

    

Climatology says that's probably correct. Regardless of the indices it just usually does not snow outside the mtns this early.