Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

[Waiting on snow]

3 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

We need to keep our expectations in check. 

Most definitely. It's always a fine line between suppression and too warm around these parts. Definitely higher than average chances of something panning out in the advertised pattern, but no guarantee.

[cbmclean]

16 hours ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

I can't ever recall a SER with a -NAO. So, if we do have a lasting -NAO you can count that out. Also storms don't seem to trend NW at the last minute with a -NAO. Bottom line,... I'll take my chances being in the bull's eye 5 days out, if the indices are favorable. 

Well, it is important to differentiate.  We don't have a -NAO.  We have some forecasts which imply we might have a -NAO in the future, which is a very different thing. 

Overall, my point is that I think we are justified in being cautiously optimistic, which I think most on here would probably agree with. 

[Daniel Boone]

There have been times we had a ser in tandem with a -nao,  particularly when there's a trough out west. A -pna. Or, when the SER is there when a -NAO sets up. Either case, the SER almost always gets beat down .

[jburns]

1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

Well, it is important to differentiate.  We don't have a -NAO.  We have some forecasts which imply we might have a -NAO in the future, which is a very different thing. 

Overall, my point is that I think we are justified in being cautiously optimistic, which I think most on here would probably agree with. 

 

This year, I've decided to go against the grain and be optimistically cautious.

[tarheelwx]

-NAO + SER = CAD ICE

TW

[FallsLake]

Today's indices look goooooooood:

PNA - Looks to go strongly positive

AO - Looks to stay and go strongly negative

NAO - Looks to go strongly negative

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

Now the question; if we get a storm with a good track and high pressure setup, is this still too early

[mackerel_sky]

1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

Today's indices look goooooooood:

PNA - Looks to go strongly positive

AO - Looks to stay and go strongly negative

NAO - Looks to go strongly negative

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

Now the question; if we get a storm with a good track and high pressure setup, is this still too early

There’s not a ton of plains snowcover, but there is a good bit in the Northeast. I think even with all these great indices, the most likely outcome will be a strong CAD causing a big ice storm, possibly around early December. They are occurring on the reg now, and as The airmasses continue to grow colder, we will score some wintry events!

[Cold Rain]

11 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

There’s not a ton of plains snowcover, but there is a good bit in the Northeast. I think even with all these great indices, the most likely outcome will be a strong CAD causing a big ice storm, possibly around early December. They are occurring on the reg now, and as The airmasses continue to grow colder, we will score some wintry events!

What have you done with mackerel_sky?

[Cold Rain]

It's getting about time for some packbacker up in this mug.

I like where the indexes are headed.  I'm not too sure about the magnitude of the cold that will be around here the first part of December, though.  We seem to have a plethora of southern sliders, which is good.  But I want to see some high pressure systems of decent strength start appearing to our north and northwest, before I seriously consider a widespread SE winter storm to be a legit possibility.

[Poimen]

Block party, anyone?

 

[FallsLake]

34 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

It's getting about time for some packbacker up in this mug.

I like where the indexes are headed.  I'm not too sure about the magnitude of the cold that will be around here the first part of December, though.  We seem to have a plethora of southern sliders, which is good.  But I want to see some high pressure systems of decent strength start appearing to our north and northwest, before I seriously consider a widespread SE winter storm to be a legit possibility.

Yeah, that's why I keep wondering if this is just a little too early. But, I can't complain, just seeing a -NAO gives me hope..

It would be nice to hear from pack. He was always a big part of the discussion.  

[SnowNiner]

39 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

It's getting about time for some packbacker up in this mug.

I like where the indexes are headed.  I'm not too sure about the magnitude of the cold that will be around here the first part of December, though.  We seem to have a plethora of southern sliders, which is good.  But I want to see some high pressure systems of decent strength start appearing to our north and northwest, before I seriously consider a widespread SE winter storm to be a legit possibility.

 

Yeah I think it's too early myself, and those highs coming into the plains are weak sauce.  But patience is too hard, so I track anyway.  

[FallsLake]

2 minutes ago, Poimen said:

Block party, anyone?

 

That's a look that can produce...The model is even trying to show a storm off the SE in the LR; too far out for specifics, but who knows we could be tracking a storm in a week or so. 

[ajr]

GFS showing something around 11/30 and 12/3.. something to keep an eye on at least

[BullCityWx]

I could be wrong but I just think it's too early. If we were talking about christmas, I'd feel much better. There hasnt been a significant early December snowstorm in Charlotte, for instance, since 1971. Before that, you have to go all the way back to the 1880s and 1890s. 

[CLTwx]

5 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

I could be wrong but I just think it's too early. If we were talking about christmas, I'd feel much better. There hasnt been a significant early December snowstorm in Charlotte, for instance, since 1971. Before that, you have to go all the way back to the 1880s and 1890s. 

what about this? 

 

[CLTwx]

Just now, CLTwx said:

what about this? 

 

SNOWSTORM...ahh...apologies. 

[Cold Rain]

I'm kind of in the QC camp in that it would be quite unusual to have a big winter storm so early in the season around here.  That said, we are seeing some pretty favorable H5 looks being spit out of the models from time to time for late Nov/early Dec.  We don't usually see this kind of thing so early in the season, so if we're going to do the unusual, this seems like the year it will happen.  Either way, I'm just glad we're not in a warm pattern, seeing nothing but warm patterns, and wondering when it's going to end.  Great to finally be able to be interested early in the season like this.

[Orangeburgwx]

*looks at that December 3rd set up*

 

Oh boy I hit pay dirt with that!!!

[mackerel_sky]

34 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I'm kind of in the QC camp in that it would be quite unusual to have a big winter storm so early in the season around here.  That said, we are seeing some pretty favorable H5 looks being spit out of the models from time to time for late Nov/early Dec.  We don't usually see this kind of thing so early in the season, so if we're going to do the unusual, this seems like the year it will happen.  Either way, I'm just glad we're not in a warm pattern, seeing nothing but warm patterns, and wondering when it's going to end.  Great to finally be able to be interested early in the season like this.

I’m tired of you being in camp negativity! Lighten up , Fran    cis!

[LovingGulfLows]

1 hour ago, Queencitywx said:

I could be wrong but I just think it's too early. If we were talking about christmas, I'd feel much better. There hasnt been a significant early December snowstorm in Charlotte, for instance, since 1971. Before that, you have to go all the way back to the 1880s and 1890s. 

 

If Atlanta can get an early December snowstorm that drops 5+ inches, then Charlotte certainly can with the right pattern.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

1 hour ago, Queencitywx said:

I could be wrong but I just think it's too early. If we were talking about christmas, I'd feel much better. There hasnt been a significant early December snowstorm in Charlotte, for instance, since 1971. Before that, you have to go all the way back to the 1880s and 1890s. 

The Triad and other parts of the Piedmont I just had a post Thanksgiving snowstorm last year 

[WarmNose]

4 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said:

 

If Atlanta can get an early December snowstorm that drops 5+ inches, then Charlotte certainly can with the right pattern.

Seems like blocking has been the missing ingredient for the past decade. Maybe we can hold onto it for a while. We all need some snow here east of the mountains. Seems like this All Star lineup is coming together at the right time. Maybe a hair early, but it really is pretty dadgum perfect timing wise. 

[BornAgain13]

I'm not saying it's certain, but I'm going to say it's very possible that the upper SE, Mid-Atlantic and NorthEast get a Winter Storm/Storms towards the end of the month going into December.  The pattern and upper air pattern just supports it way to much!

[Cold Rain]

46 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I’m tired of you being in camp negativity! Lighten up , Fran    cis!

Where is packbacker?

[GunBlade]

CLT is an enigma that seems to take even more things going “just”right.  We are either just a few miles too SE to be cold enough to get a winter storm.  Or, we are just too far NW to get in on the main precip when we have the cold. 

I don’t have the data to verify but I’d wager that places like Shelby which is barely west from here gets more wintery  precip than us.  Or at least more storms where they get wintery precip.  

I myself am only about 15 miles (by car) from downtown CLT and there have been multiple times when CLT gets more than us.  Being SE has helped us a few times with coastal bombs as well though.  In general its normally either I-85 or I-77 though that is the dividing line and it’s usually a VERY sharp fall off.  And those merge in CLT.  Same happens with many CAD events.  

I’ve seen it snowing on upper levels of high rises but be raining at the ground level because the cold air is that close.  Very frustrating at times.

[DopplerWx]

33 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

CLT is an enigma that seems to take even more things going “just”right.  We are either just a few miles too SE to be cold enough to get a winter storm.  Or, we are just too far NW to get in on the main precip when we have the cold. 

I don’t have the data to verify but I’d wager that places like Shelby which is barely west from here gets more wintery  precip than us.  Or at least more storms where they get wintery precip.  

I myself am only about 15 miles (by car) from downtown CLT and there have been multiple times when CLT gets more than us.  Being SE has helped us a few times with coastal bombs as well though.  In general its normally either I-85 or I-77 though that is the dividing line and it’s usually a VERY sharp fall off.  And those merge in CLT.  Same happens with many CAD events.  

I’ve seen it snowing on upper levels of high rises but be raining at the ground level because the cold air is that close.  Very frustrating at times.

yep you just have to stay grounded in reality and climo and ignore the models even when they all show a big dog.

[BullCityWx]

1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

The Triad and other parts of the Piedmont I just had a post Thanksgiving snowstorm last year 

2" is not a significant event. There has only been two warning criteria events at PTI before 12/10 since, well, a very long time. 

[BullCityWx]

2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

yep you just have to stay grounded in reality and climo and ignore the models even when they all show a big dog.

Yep. I dont even feel like this is being negative, it's being realistic. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

1 hour ago, Queencitywx said:

2" is not a significant event. 

Yeah it is