Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

[mackerel_sky]

27 minutes ago, griteater said:

The afternoon Euro Ensemble for days 5-15

That screams overrunning, IMO!!

[Orangeburgwx]

37 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

December to remember coming up!! Love these trends.  Bring me a cold D/J and then back into the 60's for F/M.  :-)

Better yet:

Wall to wall Dec.-Mar.

[oconeexman]

First time in a long time we've gotten some possibilities this early. Color me excited for this winter and the next 3 months. Bring on some real blocking and big wedges

[CaryWx]

That gets me all jiggly inside

[GunBlade]

Makes me think of the really cold winter we had in the late 90’s I believe.  Pond froze over in our neighborhood enough to walk on.  Several teenagers, definitely a dumb idea but luckily no one fell in.

 Never happened again after that or anywhere close really.  Not sure if it was snowy that year or not as I could see that much cold suppressing storms but regardless definitely excited!

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

15 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

Makes me think of the really cold winter we had in the late 90’s I believe.  Pond froze over in our neighborhood enough to walk on.  Several teenagers, definitely a dumb idea but luckily no one fell in.

 Never happened again after that or anywhere close really.  Not sure if it was snowy that year or not as I could see that much cold suppressing storms but regardless definitely excited!

We had ponds frozen here last winter. First 2 weeks of January  temps not above freezing. I saw images of someone I've skating on a pond in Surry County. 

[BullCityWx]

Yeah, we had coves freeze over on Lake Norman last year.

[JoshM]

fantasy storm... and it's borderline

[KChuck]

What are the chances of the southeast moisture fetch continuing into and thru the winter? I know some is due to hurricanes, but nevertheless the two closest personal weather stations to where I live, one east and one west, both show me getting roughly 40" of rain over the past three months!

[cbmclean]

2 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

Yeah, we had coves freeze over on Lake Norman last year.

Ponds frozen over here in Wilson as well, and we are well into the coastal plain.  Heck I saw pics of some ice on the edges of the sounds.  Truly a cold snap to remember.  I expect that that may be the best cold snap I see in my lifetime.

[Bob Chill]

23 minutes ago, Chuck said:

What are the chances of the southeast moisture fetch continuing into and thru the winter? I know some is due to hurricanes, but nevertheless the two closest personal weather stations to where I live, one east and one west, both show me getting roughly 40" of rain over the past three months!

One of the most predictable features during el nino winters is + precip anomalies for DJF stretching from SoCal > desert SW > southeast > midatlantic. Odds of  wet winter are above normal 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

10 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Ponds frozen over here in Wilson as well, and we are well into the coastal plain.  Heck I saw pics of some ice on the edges of the sounds.  Truly a cold snap to remember.  I expect that that may be the best cold snap I see in my lifetime.

I don't think ponds freezing over are that rare north of 85 or so. I can think of a number of years where the ponds around here froze; 2017, 2015, 2014, 2011, 2010, just this decade. Of course it may only last a couple days at a time, but it's not unusual. Last year was unusual just b/c the duration and thickness, and because some rivers even started freezing.

[FallsLake]

6 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I don't think ponds freezing over are that rare north of 85 or so. I can think of a number of years where the ponds around here froze; 2017, 2015, 2014, 2011, 2010, just this decade. Of course it may only last a couple days at a time, but it's not unusual. Last year was unusual just b/c the duration and thickness, and because some rivers even started freezing.

Just about every year we get a period where the pond next to my house freezes over. About once every three years, I'll see Falls Lake freeze over at least partially (coves) or almost totally as it did last year. 

[FallsLake]

Nice fantasy storm on the FV3-GFS at day 12. But the only thing to focus on at this point, is it looks like the cold is going to hang around. 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Where did fall go? Freezing fog and 26 here right now. 

[FallsLake]

6 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Where did fall go? Freezing fog and 26 here right now. 

We had no fall. September into the first part of October was true summer (with the hurricanes). Then the second half of October to now it basically turned to winter. Straight from ac to heat. 

[Orangeburgwx]

39 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

We had no fall. September into the first part of October was true summer (with the hurricanes). Then the second half of October to now it basically turned to winter. Straight from ac to heat. 

Been awhile since we could say that... Normally it is all heat, extremely delayed fall, with only 1 month of true winter

[FallsLake]

The modeling for todays indices are about as good as it gets in the LR.

PNA - Looks to go strongly positive - Great

A0 - Looks to go strongly negative - Great

NAO - Looks to go strongly negative - Great

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

This would come together the last part of November into December. For many of us (especially outside the mountains) this is the time of year winter storms become more possible. **as discussed already, this past storm was just a little too early in the year for a major piedmont winter storm.   

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

55 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Been awhile since we could say that... Normally it is all heat, extremely delayed fall, with only 1 month of true winter

In Orangeburg for sure. From Columbia to Orangeburg and Columbia to Florence is the hottest place I’ve been in America. Oppressive heat in the summer with no breeze. 

[Waiting on snow]

11 hours ago, Chuck said:

What are the chances of the southeast moisture fetch continuing into and thru the winter? I know some is due to hurricanes, but nevertheless the two closest personal weather stations to where I live, one east and one west, both show me getting roughly 40" of rain over the past three months!

Hard to say. I remember 09-10 was frustrating for me at least. Early on everything kept missing just north. Then when the real cold came it shut down the gulf for 2 weeks or so. That winter didn't produce until the end of January into February for areas south of 85 if my memory is correct.

[FlatLander48]

Both versions of the GFS showing some potential at the beginning of December. The FV3 has a gulf low on the 2nd several times already.

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Just passed 90 inches of rain for the year, 90.84 to be exact. Shattering yearly record. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

It's not going to end, models bringing back wet pattern.

https://imgur.com/a/igUvUJc

[oconeexman]

4 hours ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Just passed 90 inches of rain for the year, 90.84 to be exact. Shattering yearly record. 

Same here..that's unreal

[Rainforrest]

6 hours ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Just passed 90 inches of rain for the year, 90.84 to be exact. Shattering yearly record. 

124 inches here on the southern escarpment you can’t take a step without water squirting everywhere. Lol

[Maestrobjwa]

10 hours ago, FallsLake said:

The modeling for todays indices are about as good as it gets in the LR.

PNA - Looks to go strongly positive - Great

A0 - Looks to go strongly negative - Great

NAO - Looks to go strongly negative - Great

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

This would come together the last part of November into December. For many of us (especially outside the mountains) this is the time of year winter storms become more possible. **as discussed already, this past storm was just a little too early in the year for a major piedmont winter storm.   

Up north in my forum, somebody once called that the holy grail...lol Hope it holds for all of us snow eligible regions on the EC! 

[BullCityWx]

We need to keep our expectations in check. 

[tarheelwx]

54 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

We need to keep our expectations in check. 

Totally agree.  Having all the indices lined up 2-4 weeks out is like being in the bullseye of a southeast blizzard 5 days out.  

TW

[cbmclean]

18 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

Totally agree.  Having all the indices lined up 2-4 weeks out is like being in the bullseye of a southeast blizzard 5 days out.  

TW

Personally, my expectations are well in check but it still makes me happier than if the indices were all pointing in the opposite direction, which as we all know happens all too frequently. 

I wouldn't say its equivalent to being in the bullseye 5 days out.  If you are in the bullseye 5 days out, you KNOW that you are doomed and that the storm will end up passing 200 miles to your northwest.

With good index forecasts, you can reasonably conclude that you have a smaller than average chance of a patented December SER setting up shop. Certainly not a zero chance, but smaller than average.

On the other hand, when reality verifies bad after promising forecasts, I sometimes find it even more frustrating than when you can see the fail coming from a mile away.  For example, last February stung extra bad after the promising MJO forecasts.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

Personally, my expectations are well in check but it still makes me happier than if the indices were all pointing in the opposite direction, which as we all know happens all too frequently. 

I wouldn't say its equivalent to being in the bullseye 5 days out.  If you are in the bullseye 5 days out, you KNOW that you are doomed and that the storm will end up passing 200 miles to your northwest.

With good index forecasts, you can reasonably conclude that you have a smaller than average chance of a patented December SER setting up shop. Certainly not a zero chance, but smaller than average.

On the other hand, when reality verifies bad after promising forecasts, I sometimes find it even more frustrating than when you can see the fail coming from a mile away.  For example, last February stung extra bad after the promising MJO forecasts.

I can't ever recall a SER with a -NAO. So, if we do have a lasting -NAO you can count that out. Also storms don't seem to trend NW at the last minute with a -NAO. Bottom line,... I'll take my chances being in the bull's eye 5 days out, if the indices are favorable.