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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95

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1 hour ago, Solak said:

From the NC Climate Office blog today...

This weekend, a reinforcing shot of cold air is on the way, and parts of the Coastal Plain with snow still on the ground could be looking at some of their coldest temperatures in years.

Sunday morning's forecasted low in Edenton is 5°F. The last time temperatures dropped that low there was almost 22 years ago on February 5, 1996, and that station has only been that cold seven times since 1872. Rare air, indeed.

http://climate.ncsu.edu/climateblog?id=251

They are calling for us to be close to 5F Sunday morning also. I will be our coldest since Christmas 1989 if it verifies.

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29 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

So what you’re saying is pack posted #fakenews?

LOL...I posted the 850 map, GEPS 850's looks like the GEFS too.  This is a warm pattern in the extended whatever model you look at.  JMA seasonal weeks 3 and 4 makes the pattern below look frigid.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/pztmap.php

 

gem-ens_z500aMean_nhem_12.png

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16 minutes ago, packbacker said:

LOL...I posted the 850 map, GEPS 850's looks like the GEFS too.  This is a warm pattern in the extended whatever model you look at.  JMA seasonal weeks 3 and 4 makes the pattern below look frigid.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/pztmap.php

 

gem-ens_z500aMean_nhem_12.png

I don’t feel the 850s when I walk out my door. I dress for the 2ms lol 

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1 hour ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

So what you’re saying is pack posted #fakenews?

Pack has an oversupply of preemergent that he desperately wants to unload.  He thought mid December was looking good. Then, it got pushed back to Merry Torchmas.  Then it got pushed back to Happy New Thaw.  Now, it just has to be mid-January pattern flip.  After that it will be Winter cancel Fab Feb...and so on!

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For the record, I got no problem if the man wants to find a warm pattern and post about it.  It’s a weather board, not a cold and snow board.  To be fair, most of the LR data is rather discouraging after about two weeks out.  But the truth is, the shadow of discouragement has been hanging over our heads threatening to permanently beset us this entire winter season so far, yet it has curiously remained just beyond reach.

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Just now, Cold Rain said:

For the record, I got no problem if the man wants to find a warm pattern and post about it.  It’s a weather board, not a cold and snow board.  To be fair, most of the LR data is rather discouraging after about two weeks out.  But the truth is, the shadow of discouragement has been hanging over our heads threatening to permanently beset us this entire winter season so far, yet it has curiously remained just beyond reach.

Agree. And of course it’s going to warm up sometime, we don’t live in Buffalo. But even the 2m map of the euro he posted above shows 0-1 degree C above average here.

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1 minute ago, Queencitywx said:

Given how the ensembles look, the general way winter is going and how the OPs look today, there's just no way. 

Yeah it looks doubtful for sure.

Sometimes I wish we didn’t have long range models to look at.  Instead of waking up every day with excitement to see what might happen, there’s a feeling of disappointment, confident that an entire month of prime winter real estate is going to go down the tubes.

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10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

For the record, I got no problem if the man wants to find a warm pattern and post about it.  It’s a weather board, not a cold and snow board.  To be fair, most of the LR data is rather discouraging after about two weeks out.  But the truth is, the shadow of discouragement has been hanging over our heads threatening to permanently beset us this entire winter season so far, yet it has curiously remained just beyond reach.

I don't know CR. That shadow of discouragement (snow hole with 1/4" of snow total) almost made me break something last night.

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