ajr Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 So we're within 10 days of Christmas. Most models are indicating cool/cold temps. The FV3-GFS has highs in the 40s with lows ~freezing for both Christmas Eve and Day. It has support from the Canadian (which is colder) and the European. It doesn't have support from the (older) GFS; which would have Christmas with upper 50s to mid 60s for highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, FallsLake said: So we're within 10 days of Christmas. Most models are indicating cool/cold temps. The FV3-GFS has highs in the 40s with lows ~freezing for both Christmas Eve and Day. It has support from the Canadian (which is colder) and the European. It doesn't have support from the (older) GFS; which would have Christmas with upper 50s to mid 60s for highs. Sounds like the discussion going on the exact same time last year!? Hopefully the hammer of cold drops in on us like last year!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Sounds like the discussion going on the exact same time last year!? Hopefully the hammer of cold drops in on us like last year!! I don't see any huge arctic push of air in the LR (from models). The pattern setup isn't right. We need to get some blocking; and specifically we need to get the PNA more positive. On the Fv3 it would drop what cold air is in NA out west and not towards us. Even when we get cold air it's quick shots that come and go. But when we do get into that "favorable" pattern, we could score big time (...for more of the board); because of the parade of storms we keep getting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 SSSSSSSSSSW ftw!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 How come every single time we have this magical unicorn, aka-SSW event, always sends the arctic cold to Europe first?! Then we may just get sloppy seconds, stale cold!? Guess it doesn’t matter what miracles we pull out, how great the winter was “?suppose” to be, we still suck at snow! On to the miraculous, backloaded Fab Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Last nights and this morning models are in closer agreement for a cool Christmas. Overall 40/50s for highs and lows ~freezing. Winter storms are looking more elusive with (limited) cold air first dumping into the west and then storms cutting into the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Checking in after the weekend, long range still looks pretty cruddy to me. As long as the long range doesn't look like this January 1 I'm ok. However the one thing that may be happening below is the European / Scandinavian ridge may be starting to poke up to the pole and create the -AO/-NAO like back in November. We'll see. Anyway, not giving the strat stuff any kind of validity. It's the unattainable unicorn. My hope is the MJO and Nino Climo getting back on track during nino climo time mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 That early snow spoiled us... Now we play the 6 week waiting game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 December 1-16 temperature anomalies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Here's what the GFS says the December 1-24 temperature anomalies will look like (i.e. Dec to date + 7 day forecast) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 December 1-17 Snowfall Anomalies (U.S.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 December 1-17 Snowfall Anomalies (Eastern U.S.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 On 12/11/2018 at 2:26 PM, griteater said: The tropical forcing is now centered in the western Indian Ocean. If we keep with the current cadence, it should reach the western hemisphere by early January (Phase 8), which, if timed with a weakening stratospheric polar vortex, would give valid reasons to be optimistic for a wintry January. For the rest of December, I think getting a winter storm is going to require more luck than normal. I remain bullish on a wintry January. Here's the latest VP MJO chart showing what should be a return to El Nino-like phases 7-8-1-2 for January. And there's no doubt that the stratospheric PV will be weakening to close out December. The 2nd chart shows an official SSW on each of the last 4 runs of the GEFS Mean (zonal winds below 0) - other models have the SSW or show a strong weakening. If we go for the jugular with the forecast, we could envision the Pacific pattern (-EPO/+PNA) becoming favorable for cold in the eastern U.S. in early-mid January, with the high latitude pattern (-AO/-NAO) becoming favorable for trapping the cold air in place in mid-late January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 59 minutes ago, griteater said: December 1-17 Snowfall Anomalies (Eastern U.S.) I feel sooooo bad for Columbia.... The only strip in SC that got no snow (and Dillon county) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 This storm is pretty incredible. Look at the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Euro has a deep trough and closed ULL also. Wish it was colder and some folks could get some snow. Mountains should pick up some, but it looks unlikely for anyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 33 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Euro has a deep trough and closed ULL also. Wish it was colder and some folks could get some snow. Mountains should pick up some, but it looks unlikely for anyone else. Looks like I get a little warmer rain this time! Goody Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Today's Euro Weeklies for January (500mb) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Wow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 It’s way, way out there but should be noted for potential trends that it had a severe ice storm for most of the piedmont in NC and SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 I didn’t know that they had this product but the weeklies have a 45 day snow mean. It has about 4” for chapel hill. Wrap your head around that. There could be some very good times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 1 hour ago, Queencitywx said: I didn’t know that they had this product but the weeklies have a 45 day snow mean. It has about 4” for chapel hill. Wrap your head around that. There could be some very good times ahead. Where you seeing that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 2 hours ago, Queencitywx said: It’s way, way out there but should be noted for potential trends that it had a severe ice storm for most of the piedmont in NC and SC. For when? How far out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 NAM bias of course. The storm is south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 8 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said: I feel sooooo bad for Columbia.... The only strip in SC that got no snow (and Dillon county) Huh? The accumulating snow didn't get much south of 85. How do you figure Columbia only got left out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 1 hour ago, tarheelwx said: For when? How far out? Sorry about that, Euro control way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 HAPPY NEW YEAR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 2 hours ago, JoshM said: HAPPY NEW YEAR! So we are still looking at cutter after cutter in January!? Happy New Year indeed! This winter is going to rock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: So we are still looking at cutter after cutter in January!? Happy New Year indeed! This winter is going to rock! That would be a miller B with transfer to the coast. Western areas would get a big ice storm. The old GFS has this as a lake cutter, but still shows some initial CAD. **but of course this is too far out for the details, just having fun discussing the look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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