Cary_Snow95 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Feel free to lock this if unwanted, but I felt like the last thread is getting to be long, so here's a little house keeping. Discuss away! Let's bring the mojo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 I am going to lock this since we are so close to the end of the year. Around mid-month we can start the 2018 thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 so are we going to transfer all discussion here now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 I think it is pretty self-explanatory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Aleutian ridge establishes early on, could be a tough feature to move through February with La Nina. 10mb in Canada has been warm since Dec8. This looks to continue then shift on Jan1. Strong correlation to negative NAO 2-4 weeks later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Figured start posting in this thread, 2017 wasn’t a good year for winter weather in Raleigh so let’s hope 2018 brings better luck. Can’t see how it can get worse. We have seen trailing waves swinging around the base of a trough work before and trend better from this range. The Jan 4-6 potential looks to have marginal cold per Euro/EPS and we know how that works outside of nwNC/SC/GA. For us Raleigh folks the Jan 1-2 event looks like it for atleast a few weeks. Trends over past 48 for day 6-7 has been for better west coast ridge and deeper east trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 I am curious as to where to post the New Years threat. I am figuring it is still somewhat medium to long range (at least that's how the models make it feel this year) that this would be the best place to hold the discussion. The GFS is a little more aggressive for the event, with decent overrunning setting up for it. Hopefully the models will trend in a positive direction for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 7 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I am curious as to where to post the New Years threat. I am figuring it is still somewhat medium to long range (at least that's how the models make it feel this year) that this would be the best place to hold the discussion. The GFS is a little more aggressive for the event, with decent overrunning setting up for it. Hopefully the models will trend in a positive direction for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Interesting 11-16 day pattern on the GEFS...looks a lot like this past week which is setting up a real cold next 10 days. Another round Jan 15 and on? EPS looks nothing like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 18z GFS says what pattern change to warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Call it a hunch but bet we get something between Jan 4th-7th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 2 hours ago, Cold Rain said: 18z GFS says what pattern change to warm? What the heck... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Don’t recall the cfs bouncing around this much before. Granted the first week of Jan is going to be well BN so the month as a whole has a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 ^ The 24th looks good. Usually, that model tends to lock in the last week or so of the month. I think when it’s all said and done, this is going to be one of those winters where the much anticipated winter over doesn’t happen the way many expect. We usually see false starts with cold patterns. We’ve seen that with warmth this year. A couple weeks ago, it looked like a lock for Dec to finish above normal. How’s that looking now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Really Pack? The CFS comes out with something different everyday... What month did it blow recently? November I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Lol I just had to save this image for posterity! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Lol I just had to save this image for posterity! Of course, this is with snowpack on the ground, but pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Not sure I have ever seen the EPS spit out 15 days of BN temps. Granted the last 5 days may assume we have snowpack. The 11-15 isn’t a warm pattern with EPO coming back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Not sure I have ever seen the EPS spit out 15 days of BN temps. Granted the last 5 days may assume we have snowpack. The 11-15 isn’t a warm pattern with EPO coming back What would make the models think there is snowpack on the ground when we have not had any snow? . Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 11 minutes ago, Hammer said: What would make the models think there is snowpack on the ground when we have not had any snow? . Pro Half the EPS members have snow in the Carolinas Jan 3-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 53 minutes ago, packbacker said: Not sure I have ever seen the EPS spit out 15 days of BN temps. Granted the last 5 days may assume we have snowpack. The 11-15 isn’t a warm pattern with EPO coming back The winter that won't end! Maybe we get a January thaw this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 I don't see any way to avoid a switch to warm. Surprised it isn't happening sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Behold, the best chance of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 44 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I don't see any way to avoid a switch to warm. Surprised it isn't happening sooner. We did switch to warm for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Eventually, one of these warm typical Nina winter cancel calls has to be right....doesn’t it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Eventually, one of these warm typical Nina winter cancel calls has to be right....doesn’t it? I'm starting to the think the -EPO is the story of the winter, not the Nina. It's showing good persistence. Gives me some hope going into mid January. Just have to not be in a crazy arctic period and time the highs and lows right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: I'm starting to the think the -EPO is the story of the winter, not the Nina. It's showing good persistence. Gives me some hope going into mid January. Just have to not be in a crazy arctic period and time the highs and lows right. Agree, think we are going to see the cold last well into January if not longer. Probably wont have a real shot of a big dog until the pattern relaxes which may not be for until at least the middle off the month. Hopefully I'm wrong and we get a good snow with all this cold so we can see it stick around for a while. Looking on the bright side, the ground temps wont be an issue if we ever do see anything fall from the sky over the next few weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Negative EPO has never lasted for more than one month at a time.. it always switches. Interesting to see long range models flip back to this now. Wonder what's happening? (It's tied into MJO and 40-day cycle things). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Stratosphere warming at 10mb is heavily correlated to negative NAO 2-4 weeks later, especially mid Winter. This is probably what happens as 10mb is very warm now. It's just really weird to see this time pass without southeast ridge, it's a balance of sorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 SOI really tanking the last 30 days,pretty remarkable considering its a weak La Nina.Went from 10.40 to -1.64 in 30 or so days.Usually precip chances increase with a lowering but not yet. There's usually a 15 day lag though so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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