AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 6, 2017 Author Share Posted December 6, 2017 The cold on ensembles is only now the lightest shade of blue at 2m. Likely warmer at the surface because of constant Low pressure to NW. trending warmer every day, 80% of runs... now 40s for highs. Could be 50 when it actually happens. My point is, you can go outside and look at the cloud type and determine this kind of thing. Is this dangerous and something that needs to worry about?, What is going on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck said: The cold on ensembles is only now the lightest shade of blue at 2m. Likely warmer at the surface because of constant Low pressure to NW. trending warmer every day, 80% of runs... now 40s for highs. Could be 50 when it actually happens. My point is, you can go outside and look at the cloud type and determine this kind of thing. Is this dangerous and something that needs to worry about?, What is going on? GEFS is solidly below normal days 1-5 and 6-10. No idea what you're looking at... but normal for MD is around 40-42F this time of year so this puts highs in the 30s. Again, nothing to back up your claims and it's a bunch of nonsense. This is my last post on this, not going to waste anymore time here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Unsure if this thread is still relevant. At least for KWWD the cold will not verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 8, 2017 Author Share Posted December 8, 2017 in Baltimore, the last 2 days were +8 and +2, DCA +8 and +4. Maybe it will be cold with the snow tomorrow. The time period will likely verify 0 to +2 across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 8, 2017 Author Share Posted December 8, 2017 Two days ago Baltimore was forecasted High of 46, it made it to 56. Yesterday 46/49. Today the forecasted high is 36 and it's already 40 at 9am. That's really all I'm pointing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 12 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said: Two days ago Baltimore was forecasted High of 46, it made it to 56. Yesterday 46/49. Today the forecasted high is 36 and it's already 40 at 9am. That's really all I'm pointing out. As much as I wanted you to be wrong- you have been spot on. It's questionable if Dec will even end up below normal now. Can you please use your powers to at least have it be cold Christmas Eve and Christmas Day please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 It's cold enough to snow (and it's about to start snowing) and that's all any of us care about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I also see forecast lows in the lower 20s and upper teens next week. That's pretty cold, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Here’s the past 7 days of temp anomalies. I have to say the models nailed it. Well BN from the 6th through 12th.... Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 15, 2017 Author Share Posted December 15, 2017 There was a pattern shift the exact day 10mb went from Stratosphere cooling to warming, 12/8. Happened over the North Pole, and in Baltimore it went from +8, +4 to -2,-6,-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 todays the 15th and its like 20 degrees below normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 18 hours ago, StormchaserChuck said: There was a pattern shift the exact day 10mb went from Stratosphere cooling to warming, 12/8. Happened over the North Pole, and in Baltimore it went from +8, +4 to -2,-6,-5. At the end of the day you have to admit that the call of AN for the 6-15th has busted pretty badly. Models did an EXCELLENT job when blending together various ensemble means and nailed the cold spell we had. The change in temperatures at Baltimore were well modeled in advance, it shouldn't come as a surprise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 16, 2017 Author Share Posted December 16, 2017 DCA was -1.5 for the 10 days Baltimore -1.6 Definitely not a good forecast, although the first 2 days were much warmer. I'm not convinced we're able to see big negative temperature departures over long periods until maybe the Pacific changes. The biggest departure was -10, and tomorrow it's right back into the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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