AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Short term, it's warm. Since mid-August, 65% of days have been +AO This is 18z GFS ensembles at hour 102 No signs of cold really all the way up to Canada. A W-E cold wave never cover such a large area. Cold moves from mid-Canada to the lower midwest then thousands of miles east without losing any force, just ridiculous. The 168 moisture plume reflects uncertainty There is no feedback medium-long term on Arctic blocking, so it may just move on to Scandinavia and quicker +EPO. The end result could be a constant SE ridge, and really no major snow threat at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 30, 2017 Author Share Posted November 30, 2017 For verification, 80% chance Dec 6-15 is above average temperate wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Sounds better then last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 If this is true, you may want to change your winter snowfall guess of "69". I still quite frankly believe that you have lost your mind a tad bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 30, 2017 Author Share Posted November 30, 2017 It was in response to an outdated assessment at that time, so yeah, a bad post. I would take all totals down significantly because a pattern is setting in that is not really friendly to consistent snow and cold and will likely last the Winter. It's the predominant pattern of the 2000s thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 30, 2017 Author Share Posted November 30, 2017 So this is the coming Arctic blast at 91hr.. what do you think? hard to imagine this will phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 30, 2017 Author Share Posted November 30, 2017 On 00z GFS, 516dm cutoff drops into the US with no problem. Nothing is forcing.. it's the pattern leader and 22 hours before it's completely average flow. NAO doesn't usually have this much force. I think it's a downwelling of Stratosphere PV but it usually doesn't happen in motion like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Chuck, it's obvious to me that you have become another global warming nut who thinks he's better than all the models combined. Your comments are nothing more than vague critiques of what "may not happen" without a real forecast of what you believe will happen. Your percentage chances are useless and verification scale is completely undefined based on your definition of "cold", which you have failed to quantify. And it's too late now that you've been called out. Enough already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 damn. A post of mitch's that i agree with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Either Chuck is trolling or he hasn't looked at any models in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 My guess is Chucks employer doesn't allow him to divulge his real thoughts. So with that everyday is opposite day in his world. Strategery people. Or....space weather made chuckles nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 2, 2017 Author Share Posted December 2, 2017 06z GFS is a great run. Pleasantly surprised. Many snow chances too. The cold has weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 when chucks getting excited you know something tasty is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 3, 2017 Author Share Posted December 3, 2017 There is a long way to go to enter the cold pattern. Temps in the upper midwest are +15 today. Weather forecasting because an intuitive endeavor after so long, you get a feel of current conditions versus model runs: This one is not feeling super cold at all. , ~0 to +2 temperatures for Dec 6-15 time period DC-NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 I can vouch for your intuition. Globally we are very warm right now and really no deep snowpack to build anything other than typical transient BN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Is this Al Gore? No, I won't make you rich so you stop global warming. Anyway.. off to drive around my sports car fast and waste gas. I guess we have a panic room and a nut house thread this season. Al Gore is a negative person in my opinion. His intentions may be good but I can see why people don't like him. The whole 1% club is fairly out to lunch, surprisingly since they are well-educated. Must be the psycho genes needed to actually become a 1%'er. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 5, 2017 Author Share Posted December 5, 2017 This is a good forecast. 2nd wave may not overcome SE ridge. 168 and 288 whatever... This is what's happening now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 5, 2017 Author Share Posted December 5, 2017 Could be a nice day with temperatures in the 60s Models always always get this pattern wrong too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 You do realize that basically from December 6 onward the models are BN to strongly BN just about every day, especially in the NE and Great Lakes... What happened the first few days of December was predicted and well modeled as AN, now the change happens. StormchaserChuck, sorry but it's hard to take anything you've said in this thread seriously when you state the obvious and ignore the changes occurring in the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 5, 2017 Author Share Posted December 5, 2017 The day before a 10day forecast bust too cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 4 hours ago, StormchaserChuck said: The day before a 10day forecast bust too cold And your point is??? Fact is, models predicted this warmth quite well and they’re handling the cold well also. The warmth today is irrelevant to what happens when the next 10 days or so. You’ve been saying this entire time models would bust and it would be warm December 6-15 yet models have stuck to and even intensified the cold signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 For reference here is the EPS for the next 10 days. Pretty cold and far from the SE ridge you claimed would dominate this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 On 11/29/2017 at 8:22 PM, StormchaserChuck said: For verification, 80% chance Dec 6-15 is above average temperate wise. I’d say this outlook needs to be revised. About 90% chance it’s below normal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 this is his thread, y'all. Let him have his fun in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 chuck wins. No snow. the snow will not verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 6, 2017 Author Share Posted December 6, 2017 Well here is the new 120hr. If the Pacific doesnt do exactly this, quickly warm. (No AK ridging so far...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 6, 2017 Author Share Posted December 6, 2017 Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 40. Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Tuesday A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Let's talk about this ugly pattern of chemtrails or whatever it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 12 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said: Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 40. Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Tuesday A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Let's talk about this ugly pattern of chemtrails or whatever it is And your point in this is what??? Fact is the ensembles all strongly agree the Dec 6-15 timeframe will average solidly BN across the East Coast. We can see how things turn out in 10 days, my money is on the ensembles being right. They've been very reliable this year in the extended at picking up the warm/cold transitions we've been seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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