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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2017-18 OBS Thread


Rtd208

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5 minutes ago, RedSky said:

I can't win my NWS forecast is 20% chance of snow Saturday :lol: talked to my sister on the phone hour ago told her it's likely going to snow on Saturday she said i was a lying jerk because channel 10 says flurries 

There it is guys just a slight chance or flurries i be hallucinating

 

 

The forecast will probably change. Just noticed the NWS forecast for my location has 1-3 inches of snow yet only a 50% chance of snow for Saturday. Hmmm. 

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As of now, it is looking like this will be a warning event for snj. 5 to 8 inches would be my call from mercer county south and east. 3-6 inches from bucks county south to the river, lehigh valley 1-3 inches with isolated 4 spots. Guidance has been pretty settled on these amounts at 00z besides the UK. Depending on if the trend of precip increasing and the storm deepening continues today, these numbers could increase and bucks county S and E may all have a winter storm warning. this has turned into quite the surprise SECS, it's looking like all of 95 from the SE to NE will get accumulating snow.

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it's going to be fun watching all the local weather mets scramble last minute to hype the storm after claiming nothing but snow showers/nuisance flakes last night. Tonight it will be snow maps and all about the significant snow event about to begin. I was pretty disappointed yesterday that not one station dropped even a clue this was possible yesterday. Mt Holly on the other hand has done a great job leaving the possibility out there and changing their forecast as more data came in.

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2 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

it's going to be fun watching all the local weather mets scramble last minute to hype the storm after claiming nothing but snow showers/nuisance flakes last night. Tonight it will be snow maps and all about the significant snow event about to begin. I was pretty disappointed yesterday that not one station dropped even a clue this was possible yesterday. Mt Holly on the other hand has done a great job leaving the possibility out there and changing their forecast as more data came in.

They have been burnt too many times in the past where a warm nose appears and mixes rain in with the snow, reducing totals significantly...

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I know there is some buzzing about possible Monday night flakes. I'm not expecting much from that tbh with the slp and 850 low well N and W of here. Lift is not in the best location either. I could see some intermittent flakes/graupel/sleet/fzra in extreme SE PA (maybe more of a chance for accumulating snows the farther N into PA you go) but I'm not very intrigued by the setup right now for Philly proper and very immediate burbs. Looking more closely later in the week as some models (JMA/Euro/NAVGEM) all take a vorticity maxima to our South ala possible Clipper snows. Better track AND cold air already entrenched. GFS isn't having it BUT it took a long time for the GFS to latch on to tonight's system so there's that. 2 time frames to at least watch....Monday PM then Thursday-Friday-ish.

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Most impressive parts of this storm were imo: 1) it occurred at the beginning of a pattern change to a colder regime as opposed to the usual event at the tail end of a cold pattern, 2) it is very early in the season and we usually find a way to fail with these systems.....this one we kicked straight thru the uprights, and 3) the NAVGEM was the first to latch on to the more Western track as early as 0z Sunday Dec 3 run.

This year just 'feels' different.

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Monday AM rush and Tuesday AM rush need caution, especially N of PA Turnpike. Weak piece of upper level energy swings thru early Monday and could trigger a burst of snow showers right around AM rush causing slick driving conditions. Doesn't look like a big deal but caution should be urged if traveling....only takes a dusting to make people drive like morons and cause accidents. Another disturbance swings thru Tuesday AM just in time for AM rush. Again, bigger impacts N of PA Turnpike but SE PA could see light precip (generally) with pockets of embedded mixed precip. 2m temps look to be just above freezing but with recent snowpack and temps right around freezing, wont take much to cause headaches during AM rush. Neither day looks like a huge deal S of the PA Turnpike into extreme SE PA but caution should be urged.

Then we look towards late week as an Alberta Clipper tries to travel under the region. Looks dry-ish but these systems tend to squeeze out every bit of moisture they can. Something to watch anyway. First we need the track to our South to verify (mixed on models right now bu leaning towards S) then we need to start looking at QPF. Another fun week of tracking :-)

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11 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Most impressive parts of this storm were imo: 1) it occurred at the beginning of a pattern change to a colder regime as opposed to the usual event at the tail end of a cold pattern, 2) it is very early in the season and we usually find a way to fail with these systems.....this one we kicked straight thru the uprights, and 3) the NAVGEM was the first to latch on to the more Western track as early as 0z Sunday Dec 3 run.

This year just 'feels' different.

I wasn't very optimistic coming into this winter, warm/dry falls are often a bad sign. But NOT getting accumulating snow before Thanksgiving while getting accumulating snow in early Dec are good signs. Still not ready to say a blockbuster winter is on the way, but I have a much better feeling about this year than I did in late Oct/early Nov.

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