MGorse Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, RedSky said: I can't win my NWS forecast is 20% chance of snow Saturday talked to my sister on the phone hour ago told her it's likely going to snow on Saturday she said i was a lying jerk because channel 10 says flurries There it is guys just a slight chance or flurries i be hallucinating The forecast will probably change. Just noticed the NWS forecast for my location has 1-3 inches of snow yet only a 50% chance of snow for Saturday. Hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Have a nice snow shower moving through right now. Its great to have snow back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 hour ago, Newman said: Have a nice snow shower moving through right now. Its great to have snow back. We had one move through here as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 NBC10 says 1-3" mainly in south Jersey and only grassy area accumulations possibly Philly lol Fake News? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Ukie bumped up QPF giddyup 6-10" SEPA west to east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 ECM a rather uniform snowfall of 4-5" SEPA 5-6" SJ Lehigh Valley 3-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 As of now, it is looking like this will be a warning event for snj. 5 to 8 inches would be my call from mercer county south and east. 3-6 inches from bucks county south to the river, lehigh valley 1-3 inches with isolated 4 spots. Guidance has been pretty settled on these amounts at 00z besides the UK. Depending on if the trend of precip increasing and the storm deepening continues today, these numbers could increase and bucks county S and E may all have a winter storm warning. this has turned into quite the surprise SECS, it's looking like all of 95 from the SE to NE will get accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 it's going to be fun watching all the local weather mets scramble last minute to hype the storm after claiming nothing but snow showers/nuisance flakes last night. Tonight it will be snow maps and all about the significant snow event about to begin. I was pretty disappointed yesterday that not one station dropped even a clue this was possible yesterday. Mt Holly on the other hand has done a great job leaving the possibility out there and changing their forecast as more data came in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, The Iceman said: it's going to be fun watching all the local weather mets scramble last minute to hype the storm after claiming nothing but snow showers/nuisance flakes last night. Tonight it will be snow maps and all about the significant snow event about to begin. I was pretty disappointed yesterday that not one station dropped even a clue this was possible yesterday. Mt Holly on the other hand has done a great job leaving the possibility out there and changing their forecast as more data came in. They have been burnt too many times in the past where a warm nose appears and mixes rain in with the snow, reducing totals significantly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 CricketsSent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 35.6F overcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Looks like its snow gonna snow outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 18Z NAM is east with the low and a bit with precip shield as well through 18 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 18Z NAM is east with the low and a bit with precip shield as well through 18 hours Not sure what you're looking at but precip shield is identical to 12z. Low even looks more west.Sent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, anthonyweather said: Not sure what you're looking at but precip shield is identical to 12z. Low even looks more west. Sent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk At 18 it was, but now at 24, I agree. Does appear it may be a bit west. Good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 At 18 it was, but now at 24, I agree. Does appear it may be a bit west. Good newsThere is a thread fur this stormSent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: There is a thread fur this storm Sent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Just saw it. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 18Z NAM is east with the low and a bit with precip shield as well through 18 hours Surface slp and 500mb streamlines all shifted W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 NWS has widespread 1-3" snow Monday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 I know there is some buzzing about possible Monday night flakes. I'm not expecting much from that tbh with the slp and 850 low well N and W of here. Lift is not in the best location either. I could see some intermittent flakes/graupel/sleet/fzra in extreme SE PA (maybe more of a chance for accumulating snows the farther N into PA you go) but I'm not very intrigued by the setup right now for Philly proper and very immediate burbs. Looking more closely later in the week as some models (JMA/Euro/NAVGEM) all take a vorticity maxima to our South ala possible Clipper snows. Better track AND cold air already entrenched. GFS isn't having it BUT it took a long time for the GFS to latch on to tonight's system so there's that. 2 time frames to at least watch....Monday PM then Thursday-Friday-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Most impressive parts of this storm were imo: 1) it occurred at the beginning of a pattern change to a colder regime as opposed to the usual event at the tail end of a cold pattern, 2) it is very early in the season and we usually find a way to fail with these systems.....this one we kicked straight thru the uprights, and 3) the NAVGEM was the first to latch on to the more Western track as early as 0z Sunday Dec 3 run.This year just 'feels' different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Monday AM rush and Tuesday AM rush need caution, especially N of PA Turnpike. Weak piece of upper level energy swings thru early Monday and could trigger a burst of snow showers right around AM rush causing slick driving conditions. Doesn't look like a big deal but caution should be urged if traveling....only takes a dusting to make people drive like morons and cause accidents. Another disturbance swings thru Tuesday AM just in time for AM rush. Again, bigger impacts N of PA Turnpike but SE PA could see light precip (generally) with pockets of embedded mixed precip. 2m temps look to be just above freezing but with recent snowpack and temps right around freezing, wont take much to cause headaches during AM rush. Neither day looks like a huge deal S of the PA Turnpike into extreme SE PA but caution should be urged. Then we look towards late week as an Alberta Clipper tries to travel under the region. Looks dry-ish but these systems tend to squeeze out every bit of moisture they can. Something to watch anyway. First we need the track to our South to verify (mixed on models right now bu leaning towards S) then we need to start looking at QPF. Another fun week of tracking :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 11 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Most impressive parts of this storm were imo: 1) it occurred at the beginning of a pattern change to a colder regime as opposed to the usual event at the tail end of a cold pattern, 2) it is very early in the season and we usually find a way to fail with these systems.....this one we kicked straight thru the uprights, and 3) the NAVGEM was the first to latch on to the more Western track as early as 0z Sunday Dec 3 run.This year just 'feels' different. I wasn't very optimistic coming into this winter, warm/dry falls are often a bad sign. But NOT getting accumulating snow before Thanksgiving while getting accumulating snow in early Dec are good signs. Still not ready to say a blockbuster winter is on the way, but I have a much better feeling about this year than I did in late Oct/early Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 So where is Birds~69? Hope he is okay - didn't notice any posts about the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 1 hour ago, KamuSnow said: So where is Birds~69? Hope he is okay - didn't notice any posts about the snow. Definitely MIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Yes please on today's GFS Christmas Eve and Xmas day long duration snow mix everything storm how much will it cost me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 I noticed models have some snow showers for tonight and into Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 1 hour ago, KamuSnow said: So where is Birds~69? Hope he is okay - didn't notice any posts about the snow. Hopefully he's out in LA with the Birds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 11, 2017 Author Share Posted December 11, 2017 Snowing lightly here, temp 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Got a dusting overnight that stuck to mostly cold surfaces like cars. A bit of a surprise because it was progged for a low chance of sideswipe and mostly further N/W of here. Temp stayed at or above freezing through the night (so far). Currently 33F and cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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