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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2017-18 OBS Thread


Rtd208

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4 minutes ago, wkd said:

Picked the wrong time to cancel my wxbell subscription (4/3). Who would have guessed threats ould go well into April. Navigating weather.us less than convenient. 

Lol I'm in the same boat. Never thought we'd have 3 snow threats not including tonight in the first week of April... Pretty crazy

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2 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Lol I'm in the same boat. Never thought we'd have 3 snow threats not including tonight in the first week of April... Pretty crazy

3 threats not including tonight? Their is tonight then next weekend then next Tuesday.  What other threat we talking about 

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Been riding the Euro with this one for 7 days now and see ZERO need to change ship. The euro and even euro control have simply not waivered....not one bit with the overall track and amounts tonight and Monday morning. About as consistent you will ever see. Will it be right? Or just consistently wrong? Im betting on the former. Hard to believe it given how gorgeous it is outside right now.
5585d0d74c69f9656cf3d9389212c0df.jpgf58a1c6358c7e26d2c9c776e0dca09b2.jpg

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15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Been riding the Euro with this one for 7 days now and see ZERO need to change ship. The euro and even euro control have simply not waivered....not one bit with the overall track and amounts tonight and Monday morning. About as consistent you will ever see. Will it be right? Or just consistently wrong? Im betting on the former. Hard to believe it given how gorgeous it is outside right now.
5585d0d74c69f9656cf3d9389212c0df.jpgf58a1c6358c7e26d2c9c776e0dca09b2.jpg

I'm tempted to agree. The euro holding serve once again is promising. I think we ll have a nice 2-3 hour period of heavy snow that will cave roads.

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24 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I'm tempted to agree. The euro holding serve once again is promising. I think we ll have a nice 2-3 hour period of heavy snow that will cave roads.

Hrrr and RGEM concur.....5-6" up this way. My expectations are set for 2" slush....anything more will be a bonus. Exceeding 3.6" will get me over 60" for the season.....within the realm of possibilities. 

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If it didnt have the other support it does, I would say the GFS is having some April Fool's fun. Luckily it is the only model that bullseyes the region as other have some more wiggle room. Bullseye 6 days out in April doesnt make me comfy but this threat window has been open for a while now and this is 3 straight GFS runs now. April is the new March which is the new Feb apparently. Instead of daylight savings we will be flipping ahead and behind a month soon lol.63bd7a6c40aef91fe361711512da6de8.jpg

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

If it didnt have the other support it does, I would say the GFS is having some April Fool's fun. Luckily it is the only model that bullseyes the region as other have some more wiggle room. Bullseye 6 days out in April doesnt make me comfy but this threat window has been open for a while now and this is 3 straight GFS runs now. April is the new March which is the new Feb apparently. Instead of daylight savings we will be flipping ahead and behind a month soon lol.63bd7a6c40aef91fe361711512da6de8.jpg

If this verifies for April this would be an HECS.

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4 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

I agree, it's going to be crap....beyond crap.

The only excitement I have regarding this event is it will probably look pretty cool as I take my 1-2 mile walk between 530-6:30am tomorrow morning. Probably decently heavy at that point.

I also made a bet w/myself that by 8pm Monday evening I won't see a drop of snow left...nothing. I may lay a $1000 on that...  

Place the bet - it will make it even more exciting!  :lol: I'm thinking that if you get 3-4"or more you'll see some in some shady spots at least. Even then it might still all melt off by the next morning.

I'll enjoy it immensely if we can pull off 2" here. Did the spring cleanup deep tissue lawn blow out front yesterday so we're all ready!

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1 hour ago, KamuSnow said:

Place the bet - it will make it even more exciting!  :lol: I'm thinking that if you get 3-4"or more you'll see some in some shady spots at least. Even then it might still all melt off by the next morning.

I'll enjoy it immensely if we can pull off 2" here. Did the spring cleanup deep tissue lawn blow out front yesterday so we're all ready!

All true....but if I only get 1-2" and it's done by 10am and the sun is out by -1pm I may win my own bet. But I am looking forward to seeing some snow fall in the 5am - 6am hours...may be the last one this year.

53.1F

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Here's a sounding for tonight at 4 am for the Allentown area. Quite an impressive sounding: there is very favorable snow growth which would support widespread rates of 1 inch per hour or better across most of PA and NNJ. Going to be quite a show.

I like a swath of 3-6" in the NW Philly suburbs. 

image.png

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4 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Crashed in the Pacific, where the odds favored it

 

I guess I'm late to the party. I thought it was tonight 10pm to early Monday timeline but haven't been really following it. Anyhow, Ch6 @ 10 snow map. Looks about right...(42.9F, steadily going down)

610.gif

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For the potential weekend storm, the northern TPV wave that is supplying the cold air has trended much stronger recently. This is suppressing the flow way too south. We need a good balance of the Friday clipper-like system to be strong enough to provide a fresh shot of "cold" air (it isn't frigid but good enough for April) but not too strong to force everything south and pull the baroclinic zone well off shore. Also, the southern wave energy has basically vanished but I'm positive it'll show up again soon in the shorter range guidance. I think this storm has a legit chance for a SECS area wide, MECS for April standards.

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