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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2017-18 OBS Thread


Rtd208

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Thankfully it looks like we will have at little break of precip events to melt the snow away. But guidance is indicating that afterwards the pattern becomes active again. Not even looking at the snow threat, but as a flooding threat. These past 2 months have been much above normal precip wise, a heavy rain event or 2 could cause issues on most of our streams and rivers. 

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Anyone see the 6z GFS for April 7? Will probably be gone next run but I'll be danged if the ens and ops havent consistently been hinting at an Archambault as the NAO flips from negative to positive. Ops have been sporadically showing frozen precip surface progs especially elevation and NW areas. Period between April 4-April 8 should probably at least be monitored for winter's potential last gasp for some areas in the region.

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One very brief/transient period of AN temps for a couple of days at the tail end of March sandwiched between an overall BN temp regime throughout the region on the LR ens thru the 2nd week of April. Dare I say the pattern even subtly supports a couple of frozen threats for parts of the region as energy undercuts the area and a gradient pattern sets up shop? Obviously climo supports NW and elevated areas but who the heck knows this year? Seeing some strong sustained HP sprawled out along the Canada/US border on some guidance.

 

 

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Looks like we should dry out this week... other than some showers maybe a brief period of light rain for a day or two, looks like there are no major precipitation events for the next 10 days. As posted above, things get interesting though beginning the first week of april. Looks like at least 2 large scale synoptic events in that time period that could possibly be frozen but at the very least look to be big precipitation makers at this time. That's the next thing to watch. As mentioned before, even with the dry period, a storm dropping 2-3" of rain region wide would likely cause flooding on the major rivers with how saturated the soil is right now. 

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7 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Anyone see the 6z GFS for April 7? Will probably be gone next run but I'll be danged if the ens and ops havent consistently been hinting at an Archambault as the NAO flips from negative to positive. Ops have been sporadically showing frozen precip surface progs especially elevation and NW areas. Period between April 4-April 8 should probably at least be monitored for winter's potential last gasp for some areas in the region.

Yeah I've been watching that signal for a few days now, seems reliable to track. Steady as she goes!

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10 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Anyone see the 6z GFS for April 7? Will probably be gone next run but I'll be danged if the ens and ops havent consistently been hinting at an Archambault as the NAO flips from negative to positive. Ops have been sporadically showing frozen precip surface progs especially elevation and NW areas. Period between April 4-April 8 should probably at least be monitored for winter's potential last gasp for some areas in the region.

An ice storm on April 7th is :lol:

 

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An ice storm on April 7th is 
 

CMC says no ice, just snow N and W with the gradient pattern setup. Not a strong signal but again, something interesting to track at the very least before we move closer to the broken record "partly sunny, hazy, hot, humid, chance for an isolated afternoon thunderstorm" stuff of summer.
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Didnt realize I was posting about the next 10 days in the wrong thread so here....the GFS and GEFS are now honking too. Not a bad signal for some sort of coastal storm at range on all guidance now. You know what they say....the big ones are often modeled at range by most models so worth noting. Like I've been saying, N and W and elevation systems (frozen) favored this time of year but I wouldnt rule anything out honestly given what we've seen the past 4 weeks and the continuation of the neg NAO look. Also, GFS is close to bringing light flakeage to Southern PA now with its shift N at 18z. e94c6420c232b6f371d78cb7f081df30.jpg&key=e4939f770af839a4f8ceb2afb75adf7a31569e607b9532671d28aaed7b3156a5

 

 

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Just about all of them jumped back on the snow threat for Monday at 0z friggen ridiculous 
 

Seasonal trend....lose system or squash it 72-96 hours then slowly bring it back. We're the snow capital of the region this year....why not keep it going she (mother nature) said. Funny how many folks vanished here. I know it isn't January and I know many look at spring snow as a nuisance, but snow is snow and we get our spring snows with a neg NAO. This is one of those rare years we actually have that feature AND a neg AO to boot.

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