KamuSnow Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not worth deep discussion 'yet' but for kicks and giggles GFS snowfall is fairly wide 1-3' totals for next week with NW areas jackpotting. Yeah the 6z GFS done NAM'd us, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not worth deep discussion 'yet' but for kicks and giggles GFS snowfall is fairly wide 1-3' totals for next week with NW areas jackpotting. text book archambault event and has had OP support from both Euro and GFS in the LR. Also with all of the teleconnections in place and that storm bringing the pattern change, I say it has a solid chance of being even better than Wednesday. I like the set up better for sure. First things first though with wednesday. Very rarely do we score big twice in a week ala feb 2010. Not impossible but what are the odds of something like that happening twice a decade? We are on a roll though and the pattern supports it so who knows. I will be pretty sad if we don't end up getting at least 1 of these storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 GFS wants to have another snowstorm after the next two, wouldn't making a run at February 2015 snow numbers be something. But February would always be so much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 15 minutes ago, RedSky said: GFS wants to have another snowstorm after the next two, wouldn't making a run at February 2015 snow numbers be something. But February would always be so much better. Does it still show a significant one after this one? I think 6-10" might be a safe call for me right now for the upcoming storm. Could be a little more, but right now models don't show less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 24 minutes ago, mattinpa said: Does it still show a significant one after this one? I think 6-10" might be a safe call for me right now for the upcoming storm. Could be a little more, but right now models don't show less. It's almost there minus the under done precipitation for a sweet track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 We need to score BIG tomorrow as the weekend event is near extinction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 49.6F a real nice day, i did stop and point my finger at the rising daffodils to say "go back down you should know whats coming!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 hours ago, RedSky said: 49.6F a real nice day, i did stop and point my finger at the rising daffodils to say "go back down you should know whats coming!" I hit 49 today and saw my first, planted-in-fall crocus pop up with a cheerful purple flower. Have some snow drops that have been up for almost 2 weeks, part of that time buried under snow. Currently 46 and mostly cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Snow in MD according to MA forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Not to ignore what going on in front of us right now, but may not want to stick a fork in the Mon event just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, JTA66 said: Not to ignore what going on in front of us right now, but may not want to stick a fork in the Mon event just yet. Crazy uncle Ukie just joined the GFS to snow bomb the region on Monday it's on like Donkey Kong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 If the Euro joins then we are in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 If the Euro joins then we are in business. Disagree. Euro has been horrendous in this neg NAO pattern outside of 72 hours.....even 48 tbh. See todays storm as perfect example. Outlier majority of the week leading up.GEFS and GFS led the way with this storm today. The GEFS were as consistent Ive seen. Why not do it again? GEFS have been fairly similar in timing and overall H5 look past 3 runs. Have slowly crept closer to a big ticket hit here and the 18z mean clustering to the N of the mean is a good signal imo. Stay tuned on this one: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 GEFS trend and GEPS 24 hour precip maps below irt March 12 system. Decent signal for the area. GEFS continue to lead the way. Biggest takeaway from overnight guidance is 1) the amount of timing and track spread on guidance has actually increased and 2) many ens members are increasing the rainer looks for our friends to the South while increasing the snowy look for N DE, C NJ, S and SE PA. In January I would fear suppression at 96+ hours out but 2 things going for us here.....ULL is passing us by closer to our South as lead time is lessening due to less digging from the +PNA, the weakening -NAO (remember that Archambault flip??), and the 50/50 showing up in a better spot with less push on our flow to the S. Secondly, as I said, in January we would expect cold to overwhelm and suppression chances to increase. In mid March climo favors less of this and Im not seeing overwhelming evidence to determine a Southern slider look. This track is more dependent on the PNA/NAO combo and the 50/50 effect. In short, a Northward correction to storm track is likely the next several days and there is still alot of variability on model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 ICON isnt among the higher range of reliable guidance but it is still a global weather model so dont take this verbatim....I am posting this only to show how some minor changes aloft are cause massive shifts N with the lp track and location at the surface. Note the small tick N from last run (sarcasm intended). Not sure honestly how this will play out exactly yet. It is just becoming more clear this wants to come farther N and has more room to continue that adjustment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Getting some flurries as progged with sun going in and out and melting going on. Temp is 37F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 The snow pack here is hanging in pretty well so far. Nice seeing snow outside for more than 2 days in a row - probably the longest stretch of days with snow on the ground since January (here). 30F currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Agreed.... had it been 10” of fluff would be long gone by now plus with the high water content and 20s overnight it’s frozen solid so will take a while even with the strong(er) March sun!!! How’s the pile lookin’⁉️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 hour ago, snowwors2 said: Agreed.... had it been 10” of fluff would be long gone by now plus with the high water content and 20s overnight it’s frozen solid so will take a while even with the strong(er) March sun!!! How’s the pile lookin’⁉️ Lookin Good! Would be nice to add to it, not too optimistic at this point but I wouldn't rule it out now would I? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 19 hours ago, RedSky said: Computer models in 1966 which one the pongNAM Good catch, lol. I actually thought that was funny. eta: For me it was the Herb Clarke and the WE-7-1212 models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 No kettle fire tonight, lol. Poor bamboo - started clearing it out this afternoon up the hill farther, going to take a good day to get it all cleared out, and that's just with what's bent over/broken out onto the driveway. Lots of it is still weighed down by the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Was just updating seasonal snowfall in my signature and realized wow, we are almost at double seasonal snowfall for the season. How the heck did we pull this off??? Not sure how we got there given the 1-3" nickel and dime events early, the January thaw/relax pattern, wet February, etc. I think we only had 1 WSWarning actually issued up here this season iirc. Awesome season. Maybe we wrap up with some more flakes flying around Monday night/Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 13 hours ago, KamuSnow said: No kettle fire tonight, lol. Poor bamboo - started clearing it out this afternoon up the hill farther, going to take a good day to get it all cleared out, and that's just with what's bent over/broken out onto the driveway. Lots of it is still weighed down by the snow. That sucks....but when life throws you bamboo, make furniture :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Years from now, this winter is going to look really good on paper. And in some ways it was a good winter -- can't complain when you reach or surpass seasonal snowfall totals. And there were some remarkable events, including these last two storms. But for some reason, I don't think I'll look back on this winter as anything special. Maybe because it took a break for much of peak climo -- Jan and Feb. For me, this winter was a much less extreme version of 1989-90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Should I swing by the car wash today or wait?Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: That sucks....but when life throws you bamboo, make furniture :-) Or in your case, a fly fishing pole! I still have my dad's pole (without reel) that has to be at least 60+ years old. 2018 is double last year's IMBY totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said: Should I swing by the car wash today or wait? Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk I would wait... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: That sucks....but when life throws you bamboo, make furniture :-) lol....maybe we will :-). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Or in your case, a fly fishing pole! I still have my dad's pole (without reel) that has to be at least 60+ years old. 2018 is double last year's IMBY totals. I've put a battery powered sawzall on the end of a 32' long bamboo pole (with lots of duct tape), taped the trigger in the on position, slapped the battery in and used it to trim some branches here. Works pretty good, the hardest part is getting it up in the air, leverage and all. Here is not quite double last year (34.6" vs 18.3"), but March has put mby comfortably over normal, and has been pretty enjoyable from a winter/snow perspective. Too early for 70's anyway, messes up the plant life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 hour ago, hurricane1091 said: Should I swing by the car wash today or wait? Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk Take one for the team and get it washed today! TIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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